Blizzard of 2026 Storm Thread/OBS

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Dead in here. Need some more maps

Euro came west 

[Kevin Reilly]

4 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Dead in here. Need some more maps

Absolutely everyone is napping.  I just woke up got 3 hours of sleep tracking last night till 5 am. 

[Duca892]

2 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Absolutely everyone is napping.  I just woke up got 3 hours of sleep tracking last night till 5 am. 

Yup gonna be a long 36hrs ahead 

[Newman]

Just now, Duca892 said:

Yup gonna be a long 36hrs ahead 

Sleep now because you won't be sleeping tomorrow night

[ChescoWx]

The European shifted a bit East from 12z

[ChescoWx]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro came west 

 

Actually a bit east....but noise at this point...

[Lucy Pull]

1 minute ago, ChescoWx said:

The European shifted a bit East from 12z

This seemed like mostly noise to me. The precip field in general shifted northwest albeit slightly but the slug of moisture wasn’t as apparent towards PHI

[Lucy Pull]

EPS ensembles keeping a slightly further west cluster compared to 12z based off MSLP. Looks to reduce far eastern outliers as well.

Don’t have precip output

[Lucy Pull]

2 minutes ago, Lucy Pull said:

This seemed like mostly noise to me. The precip field in general shifted northwest albeit slightly but the slug of moisture wasn’t as apparent towards PHI

For reference…

[Duca892]

Western side continues to tighten and tighten. Feel really good about my 4-8in for the Lehigh Valley and 6-12 from bucks to Philly

[Lucy Pull]

I feel that we’ll see a consensus start to build at 00z.

18z NAM and 18z GFS had a pretty large discrepancy with heights out in front by hour 6 already.

[Newman]

21z SREFs coming in more tucked/amped. Should mean NAM holds serve at 0z.

[Lucy Pull]

2 minutes ago, Newman said:

21z SREFs coming in more tucked/amped. Should mean NAM holds serve at 0z.

I believe this has some recon data from the South as well? Or is that reserved for the true 0z models? 

[ChescoWx]

Quite the NBM for what it is worth....

 

[Lucy Pull]

4 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Quite the NBM for what it is worth....

 

Does this have a raw QPF output? I feel like ratios could be quite generous for this map.

[penndotguy]

17 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Western side continues to tighten and tighten. Feel really good about my 4-8in for the Lehigh Valley and 6-12 from bucks to Philly

I’m going with Mt Holly again 8-16” they have been dead on in Berks this season 

[MGorse]

12 minutes ago, Lucy Pull said:

I believe this has some recon data from the South as well? Or is that reserved for the true 0z models? 

I think that data will be for the 00z models. 

[MGorse]

7 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Quite the NBM for what it is worth....

 

The NBM ratios are likely too high as it usually runs on the higher side. 

[ChescoWx]

6 minutes ago, MGorse said:

The NBM ratios are likely too high as it usually runs on the higher side. 

It has been that way if memory serves for all of the winter events this season....

[ChescoWx]

9 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

I’m going with Mt Holly again 8-16” they have been dead on in Berks this season 

I always go with Mt. Holly - I truly believe we have the best professional team in this country!!

[Kevin Reilly]

25 minutes ago, Newman said:

21z SREFs coming in more tucked/amped. Should mean NAM holds serve at 0z.

You have a member at Dennis Twp NW Cape May County over land talk about backing in crazy.

[snowwors2]

9 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

You have a member at Dennis Twp NW Cape May County over land talk about backing in crazy.

Huh?

[Prairie Dog]

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[The Iceman]

Fun little contest for shits and giggles… which town in the mt holly CWA reports the highest total? Winner gets a pat on the back and a beer if you come pick it up.

 

 

I’m going to go Wall Township, NJ at 31”.

[vogelhund]

3 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Fun little contest for shits and giggles… which town in the mt holly CWA reports the highest total? Winner gets a pat on the back and a beer if you come pick it up.

 

 

I’m going to go Wall Township, NJ at 31”.

Chescowx normally wins these

[snowwors2]

Nah…Likely in NJ!

[donsutherland1]

28 minutes ago, Lucy Pull said:

Does this have a raw QPF output? I feel like ratios could be quite generous for this map.

That’s the current version (4.3), which tends to run high. The experimental version (5.0), which will become operational this spring, is lower. 

[mcwx]

20 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

I always go with Mt. Holly - I truly believe we have the best professional team in this country!!

agreed... and no incentive to inflate/deflate anything to get clicks. 

[donsutherland1]

Here’s the 23z NBM v.5.0:

[Lucy Pull]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here’s the 23z NBM v.5.0:

Still really likes the Poconos but much more reasonable IMO. Thanks for posting.