Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[WxMan1]

15 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It's just hard to fathom the other guidance being THAT wrong. And if this is the worst performance it's gonna be a huge indictment on what has happened...I mean the GFS is gonna lose even more credibility after this if it's wrong.

Again though, it's parallel version has been different, more like the other camps. @high riskwas right, the 06Z version did have a weaker low farther offshore, but I believe it was the 00Z 2/19 run of the GFS para that didn't have much of anything. So even this model might be trending towards the more amped members; I am not at work now so I'm not privy to the latest parallel GFS. 

But it does seem, at least to me anyway, to be a significant upgrade. Unfortunately, that means we'll have to do this all over again (verification and bias adjustment) next winter as the old GFS makes way for the new v17. It'll be okay not to trust it, but it won't likely be this far off course. Then again, I'm not a modeler so..

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

 To my untrained eye, that looks better then 12z!

[BristowWx]

Just now, JB Fins said:

Or running without pants and pissing scissors...either way, it's not good.

Awesome.  Never considered that.  Yes bad

[IronTy]

GFS run was bigly.  Some would even say the last three runs were the greatest of all time.  

[Ji]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Hmm. Is that better than 12z?

is the UK a european country cause if thats the case a european model trended towards the GFS

[baltosquid]

Surface was not a whole not different on Ukie BUT the waves were MUCH closer to consolidation this run.

[87storms]

The whole setup is pretty weird. Must be a traffic jam forming with all those vorts flying around. One of them is even moving nnw from Wisconsin to Canada lol.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I was starting to wonder if that dual low was the beginning of a cave to other guidance with the low further east. 12z didn’t have this, it was all in on a tucked low. Now we see it having one foot on other guidance, and other foot on what it showed for 12z. I think it rides the fence between these two camps for 1-2 more runs, then falls to the main camp along with other guidance. 

Yeah maybe it wasn't quite a dual low at 12Z.  I was just recalling as I looped through the surface depiction that it "jumped" suddenly to the northwest between hour 78 and 84.  And there seemed to be a sort of extension to the northwest at 78 when the low was centered east of Hatteras, then an extension to the east when it jumped toward the Delmarva area.  Maybe that was just simply how TT decided to place their "L" though and not a real jump.

 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

 To my untrained eye, that looks better then 12z!

actually its a fake out---12z looked very similar

[ravensrule]

The 18Z Euro is going to blow this place up. 

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

is the UK a european country cause if thats the case a european model trended towards the GFS

Yes it is

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ji said:

actually its a fake out---12z looked very similar

Damn.  Blah

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

actually its a fake out---12z looked very similar

Ahh ok.  

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

The 18Z Euro is going to blow this place up. 

With sadness

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, ravensrule said:

The 18Z Euro is going to blow this place up. 

It shouldn't...I mean nobody should be seriously buying the GFS right now--not without the support of other guidance.

[Interstate]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

Yes it is

Wrong... it is not part of the EU.  

[diatae]

27 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

At this point, we gotta wondering what the GFS is "seeing" that others aren't.  For the mets in here, there's gotta be some kind of GFS bias built in here...this is two runs in a row of this shit

Cocaine.

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

The 18Z Euro is going to blow this place up. 

 If euro showed what GFS showed, this site would crash 

[Ji]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Damn.  Blah

i dont look at the ukmet lol...i assumed it had the storm Bermuda or something at 12z....so kind of a letdown 

[mitchnick]

18z Canadian. Not a Gfs result, but it should send PSU over the edge with the snowfall max. Lol

[Interstate]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

It shouldn't...I mean nobody should be seriously buying the GFS right now--not without the support of other guidance.

 

Just like a couple of years ago when the Euro up until game time gave NYC over a foot a snow and they got 4 inches or something like that.

[winter_warlock]

Just now, stormtracker said:

With sadness

Way to think positive there Randy 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It shouldn't...I mean nobody should be seriously buying the GFS right now--not without the support of other guidance.

im buying it. A major model that im paying tax money for is showing me a blizzard 48 hours out

[BristowWx]

Just now, stormtracker said:

With sadness

If it even makes some good adjustment…just a tick.  Have we ever seen a massive shift one run…can’t recall

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Damn.  Blah

Yeah, thermals look like crap like they did at 12Z.

[Interstate]

The GFS is right or close to it.  I will go with the ship on this one.  I am 100% onboard with it.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

i dont look at the ukmet lol...i assumed it had the storm Bermuda or something at 12z....so kind of a letdown 

I don't either

[Ji]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

18z Canadian. Not a Gfs result, but it should send PSU over the edge with the snowfall max. Lol

this is why you dont move to winchester for snow

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

Way to think positive there Randy 

Dude, it's the Euro.  It's guaranteed misery.

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Wrong... it is not part of the EU.  

Well I'm not in the uk so I don't care  anyway