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Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread


Maestrobjwa
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12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Matches my thoughts well. Coating to 2" for I-95, 2" - 4" immediate suburbs, 4" - 6" in the elevation favored areas, maybe a few 6"+ reports if you get a combo of the three items you listed above. Amazing how we're tripping into this event. First time in awhile I've seen the GFS take the lead on anything.

Makes you wonder how much more can change. A couple days ago, the recent winter storm that occurred in the Midwest was forecast to maybe produce 4-8" of snow from Omaha to southwest WI. This morning, some folks in Iowa woke up to over a foot of snow.

Crazy things can happen under these highly anomalous upper lows and rapidly strengthening coastal lows. We all know that of course, but in terms of recency bias, ask the folks in North Carolina from several weeks back about that.

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3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

EURO isn't taking the GFS path to a win for us - we've got two different paths to success here. Beginning to feel a litttle comfortable.

My thoughts exactly. If we need the coastal to win we are in trouble, strictly speaking by climo. 

But even then, the Euro doesn't hate us. So I'm not exactly uncomfortable as much as...cautiously optimistic. 

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Someone probably posted this a bit ago, but the GEFS really hasnt backed off the tucked solutions at all. Pretty amazing. Orientation / trajectory / position changed a bit, but I see no caving to the easterly/OTS low solutions that euro suite was spitting out. Caving to the GFS, who'd have thunk it.

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_fh60_trend (1).gif

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3 minutes ago, NVAwx said:

Thanks!
We've heard from two of their best.  

Yep. Thanks to all the mets weighing in. Regulars and less-regulars. Good stuff in last few pages. Meaning realistic and useful good, now necessarily omg sn++++ imby good. Read 'em weenies.

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