Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[LP08]

May be a tick east but still should be good

[NorthArlington101]

GFS is still a bomb

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS is still a bomb

There were some changes I liked on the H5 some too 

[DDweatherman]

The other models are trending towards the GFS still, and so the compromise continues to improve... we didn't expect a full cave to GFS and capture type of modeled solution. This is good stuff.

[stormtracker]

Still a sizable hit. But temps are ugly at first 

[jayyy]

May be a bit east but bombs away next few frames

[NorthArlington101]

Still a sizable hit. But temps are ugly at first 

I think we’re counting on rates to overcome in this depiction. Not sure Conn Ave will cave during the day

[MN Transplant]

Pretty similar result, bullseye is still east of the Bay but it is largely a hit.

[NorthArlington101]

BWI gonna be over 20” 10:1.

[WxUSAF]

AI GFS is jumping into the Op GFS camp

[DDweatherman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Still a sizable hit. But temps are ugly at first 

The low getting going and deepening is important to cleaning up the column when the heavies get going. Glad this is Feb 22nd not March 2nd, not a huge difference but it helps. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

I think we’re counting on rates to overcome in this depiction. Not sure Conn Ave will cave during the day

Feeling slightly better about leaving, but not much.  It’s still a good storm. Get those heavy rates and ya set.  

[yoda]

Not saying its the same... but didn't we have an early March storm some years ago that was kinda like this at least temperature-wise?  Where it was very iffy and we just happened to be lucky and the qpf was all snow?  It was a heavy wet snow

[LeesburgWx]

I'll take this run of the GFS. It is mostly locked in. Js=ust some small movements of the LP. Looks even deeper this run at 66

[Solution Man]

Who has a clown map?

[DDweatherman]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

I'll take this run of the GFS. It is mostly locked in. Js=ust some small movements of the LP. Looks even deeper this run at 66

Agreed, AI GFS got better again as well. 

[Interstate]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

I'll take this run of the GFS. It is mostly locked in. Js=ust some small movements of the LP. Looks even deeper this run at 66

It is not the surface I am worried about.

[michaelmantis]

Pulled the trigger and moved my flight to Chicago to 11 am Sunday from 8 pm.

Looks like temps through early afternoon in the DC area look to be above freezing.

Us Chicagoians saw all the hell you guys went through a few weeks ago and even we though “damn that’s crazy” :-)

[MN Transplant]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

BWI gonna be over 20” 10:1.

Normally we should be banning Kucera maps, this time around we should be banning 10:1 maps.

[SnowenOutThere]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

AI GFS is jumping into the Op GFS camp

Massive shift actually

[yoda]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

Who has a clown map?

 

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, Interstate said:

It is not the surface I am worried about.

I see the changes at H5, but we have to roll the dice here. We are like 48 hours out

[SnowenOutThere]

Anyways, personally I think uva is in a bad spot for this storm but cheering on everyone else! Might head up to nova or Shenandoah to enjoy the snow instead 

[yoda]

Just now, MN Transplant said:

Normally we should be banning Kucera maps, this time around we should be banning 10:1 maps.

So which should we be looking at for our snow fix?

[DDweatherman]

As long as the GFS doesn't make too many more moves SE, this run went about 30-40 miles in that direction, feeling like this has some teeth. ICON, RGEM, and NAM all made moves in the GFS direction here at 12z. 

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, yoda said:

 

Acceptable. Can't get much better at this range

[TowsonWeather]

For those west of the bay, I didn't love this run as much (and I say that without looking at any snow maps). But I'm not too mad. The same general idea. 

Gonna be a pretty tight margin between the truly epic CCB stuff and the sad peeps., wherever it ultimately ends up. 

The real saddies are gonna be the ones who miss the CCB and the Norlun if/when it materializes. 

[NorthArlington101]

Kuchie clown just for @MN Transplant

[Shad]

GFS still with some clown totals.....not the monster totals for 24hrs ago.....mostly seems the models are coming together in agreement.  By the looks of it GFS has destroyed all other models with this event unless something major happens......

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Kuchie clown just for @MN Transplant

Don't show Randy