Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[stormtracker]

NAM trending better out west.  Still not where we want it tho so far

[Nomz]

It's different for sure. dont have a damn clue good or bad though 

[stormtracker]

NAM ain't gonna do it, but the trends are good

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z NAM at HR. 57 is more amped than 18Z and going neutral 

[Jake Wx]

Def a step in the right direction on nam, lets see how it plays out

[TowsonWeather]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z NAM at HR. 57 is more amped than 18Z and going neutral.

Not enough phasing between the vorts. Better, but not there.

[bncho]

[Snowman.]

0Z NAM is definitely better surface wise than 18z 

[mob1]

That backside energy is really giving it the old college try at  hour 66, it might be a hair late but the run-to-run improvement aloft is rather significant. 

[stormtracker]

NAM did it's best.  On to the GFS

[bncho]

NAM's getting a clue

[Jake Wx]

[Nomz]

NAM is a shift away from perfection

[Jake Wx]

[Cobalt]

Dare I say that the 3k NAM looks better than the 12k at hr 60? Of course it cuts off there so it leaves a lot to be imagined. 

[bncho]

987 low....

[Jake Wx]

HOUR 78

[Amped]

It phases slower, but the surface low tracks much further west. Make sense?

Of course not, its the NAM.

[LP08]

Damn that was significantly better at h5…one more of those?

[bncho]

Just now, Amped said:

It phases slower, but the surface low tracks much further west. Make sense?

Of course not, its the NAM.

The trailing vort/northern piece/ULL is pushing the vort helping it climb the coast

[Maestrobjwa]

Well...the 18z Euro made raise half an eyebrow. But just a half! I wanna see 0z...scarred by the other times this winter where it pretends to trend better at 6z or 18z, and it windshield wipers hard back to crap afterward, lol So we shall see...

[SnowenOutThere]

NAM is better for the coastal fans but worse for the people who want to bet on the H5 pass to get snow 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z 12K NAM HR. 78 coastal definitely improved compared to 18Z.

[IUsedToHateCold]

In time for the important model runs: 

[Amped]

12 minutes ago, bncho said:

The trailing vort/northern piece/ULL is pushing the vort helping it climb the coast

The Euro used the opposite logic to trend west at 18z. 

My theory is that it stayed further north and couldn't collapse the southern stream troff like 18z did. The it reoriented more quickly  avoiding squashing the wave again.

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

NAM is better for the coastal fans but worse for the people who want to bet on the H5 pass to get snow 

Just need a better phase. It’s close

[TSSN+]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Just need a better phase. It’s close

Nam at extended range just good to see it trending better 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Well...the 18z Euro made raise half an eyebrow. But just a half! I wanna see 0z...scarred by the other times this winter where it pretends to trend better at 6z or 18z, and it windshield wipers hard back to crap afterward, lol So we shall see...

So, not quite Groucho level but getting close??? 

[wxmeddler]

It's good. The lagging s/w coming out of Alberta is interesting, but good trends for the coastal.

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Just need a better phase. It’s close

It actually was encouraging to me as it’s H5 setup is different than the GFS and shows another way to score