Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[Kay]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It shouldn't...I mean nobody should be seriously buying the GFS right now--not without the support of other guidance.

Correct, and nobody is. Everyone is now in a very mature and dignified and composed state about the GFS. Totally philosophical and zen-like. Probably won't see much reaction if and when it caves.

[TowsonWeather]

If even one person says “see?” or “I told you so!” or “this is why you don’t trust the GFS” when it eventually caves, I’m gonna go to their house and smack them with a rolled up newspaper. 

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

this is why you dont move to winchester for snow

Come back to your fb page I'm teaching you where you live

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Dude, it's the Euro.  It's guaranteed misery.

It's the "Ex-wife" of the forecasting  models 

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, TowsonWeather said:

If even one person says “see?” or “I told you so!” or “this is why you don’t trust the GFS” when it eventually caves, I’m gonna go to their house and smack them with a rolled up newspaper. 

I'm going to smack them with something else. 

[TowsonWeather]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Dude, it's the Euro.  It's guaranteed misery.

You can’t spell “You’re not getting snow” without the letters E-U-R-O.

[WEATHER53]

36 minutes ago, bncho said:

That’s about 8” in 6 hours 

[Imgoinhungry]

im buying it. A major model that im paying tax money for is showing me a blizzard 48 hours out

Fool me once, twice, thrice… unplug the damn thing.


.

[LeesburgWx]

The only thing holding me back is the dual low signature now.

[CAPE]

42 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I'm not smart enough to identify the causes of the H5 differences I've pointed out but I imagine its some initial dance of our NS around the one centered further east in Canada. 

The primary difference I see is the NW to SE vorticity ribbon dropping southeastward in the flow from Canada is more robust and phases with the energy taking the southern route. The SLP over SC begins to develop at that point.

 

As for why it digs more and climbs the coast then tucks as it intensifies, I think it has to do with the ball of vorticity seen here over SW MN that emanates from the tail end of that ribbon, and THEN ultimately phases in- no other model has had that.

 

[WEATHER53]

33 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Absolutely hilarious to see the GFS show this run after run. Cave tonight at 0z will be epic. 

You depressos babbling about the cave is worthless. We are here to witness  winter weather circumstances and not the end of such. It just didn’t caved so now onto  the next cave?? Shut up.!

[Paleocene]

Slippage back east with the low mean on the GEFS. Still an awful lot of tucked members, though. Toss, we're getting a blizzard.

[WEATHER53]

32 minutes ago, Ji said:

its wet enough for you me and marcus

I have not talked to Marcus in like12 years .  Have you?

[winter_warlock]

5 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Slippage back east with the low mean on the GEFS. Still an awful lot of tucked members, though. Toss, we're getting a blizzard.

I'm glad it ticked east. We don't want it coming too far west

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Slippage back east with the low mean on the GEFS. Still an awful lot of tucked members, though. Toss, we're getting a blizzard.

Eh, more of a hold. Clustering in the same area mostly

[Solution Man]

Seems that the GFS is playing chicken with the Euro. 

[LeesburgWx]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Eh, more of a hold. Clustering in the same area mostly

One could argue the slightest bit better if clustering with a few members even more inkand

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

Seems that the GFS is playing chicken with the Euro. 

[Ji]

I have not talked to Marcus in like12 years .  Have you?

Not since the bbq

[Jake Wx]

gefs continues to tick totals up 

[winter_warlock]

Very latest from WPC... I like where they got the low!

[Ji]

I'm glad it ticked east. We don't want it coming too far west

Actually we do. As far west as possible the last minute east shift

[Ji]

Very latest from WPC... I like where they got the low!

So we care what wpc says though? We know that the models say

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Ji said:

Actually we do. As far west as possible the last minute east shift

As long as it don't come far enough west that we have mixing issues

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

So we care what wpc says though? We know that the models say

 Doesn't hurt to see what they think

[snowfan]

Noticeable uptick in probability from WPC of at least minor impacts for the area.

 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

As long as it don't come far enough west that we have mixing issues

My fellow brother in Christ, I HOPE we’re worried about mixing come this time tomorrow, that would mean a lot of things went down.

[winter_warlock]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

My fellow brother in Christ, I HOPE we’re worried about mixing come this time tomorrow, that would mean a lot of things went down.

 Agreed!

[LeesburgWx]

8 minutes ago, Jake Wx said:

gefs continues to tick totals up 

8” at Dulles? Sold.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

8” at Dulles? Sold.

That would get us to climo for the season