“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[mattm4242]

I feel pretty good about 12-18ish here, definitely a bit too north for the truly insane numbers.

Looks awesome for almost everyone.

[moneypitmike]

20 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Some of these crush SNE some still more.meh

One of them even tickles me with a little blue.

 

[ineedsnow]

9z SREF is pretty far west

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Ya but don't want a last minute pull either.. ill take a tug west though 

Nah we’re good. It’s pretty much locked.

[ineedsnow]

[Pennfisherman]

What’s a general start time for this? Tomorrow evening? 

[moneypitmike]

Just now, Pennfisherman said:

What’s a general start time for this? Tomorrow evening? 

Sunset for many

[ineedsnow]

SREFS going wild

[CoastalWx]

Haven’t looked at SREFs in years. 

[Pennfisherman]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Sunset for many

So soon! It’s amazing the trend this took. 

[dendrite]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Haven’t looked at SREFs in years. 

Lol tequila sunrise

[Kitz Craver]

Thing is tucked in 

[The 4 Seasons]

55 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Heading back tomorrow morning after getting smoked up here yesterday. Perfect timing.

Keep the shadowing to my north pls  

 

I started out conservative but made it clear my final map was likely to come up. Euro has been playing catch up the whole time and is on a relative island. I could see blizzard conditions well inland (maybe not Litchfield County) regardless of what BOX does. 

I'm doing maps now, will have out shortly, lets just say it won't be conservative. Too close in and want it to be a final, if possible.

[Chrisrotary12]

8 hours ago, TheSnowman said:

Where is this Archive you speak of….. I would Love to look.  

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com

[dendrite]

SREFs perform great in non-meteorological situations…otherwise leave them alone.

[ORH_wxman]

The way I know this is a good one is waking up and reviewing all the guidance and saying “I think 15” is the floor here”

[dendrite]

It’s seriously trying to landfall like 10-12 of those members

[HoarfrostHubb]

21 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I like my spot for a foot or so.. but don't want to see this track east at all

A foot might be conservative.  Read Ray’s blog

[CoastalWx]

Why the eff did it plot the mean low there lol. Beer all over. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

A foot might be conservative.  Read Ray’s blog

Yep

[Baroclinic Zone]

One thing to note is the 06z EPS mean SLP is coming in stronger than 00z by about 4mb. It’s also stronger than the 06z GEFS by about 6mb. Some EPS members are sub 970.

[dendrite]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Why the eff did it plot the mean low there lol. Beer all over.

It’s giving more weight to the correct ones

[Sey-Mour Snow]

35 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Big jump west on the 6z EPS also

Ya when EPS is wetter than OP this close in - you can pretty much toss it 

[HoarfrostHubb]

I’m trying to find any way for this to pull a Feb 2024…the massive rug pull. 
 

I don’t see anything like that.    
To be in SE Mass…this will be historic.   The winds will be nuts

[Sey-Mour Snow]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Haven’t looked at SREFs in years. 

I saw a post from UPTON talking about how the SREFS are west lol I didn't think they used them , explains some of their bad calls over the years?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I saw a post from UPTON talking about how the SREFS are west lol I didn't think they sued them , explains some of their bad calls over the years?

Nobody uses them lol. HREF is the new pants dropper now. 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The way I know this is a good one is waking up and reviewing all the guidance and saying “I think 15” is the floor here”

I think 36 is the ceiling 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Talking to @The 4 Seasons earlier, this track is closer to a Feb 2013 than any of the other big ones.. For SNE I like that the band will be mature as it moves in, I've noticed sometimes the banding matures too far northeast for my location.  965-975mb low with 25 miles of benchmark, mature banding overhead, bands rotting over us on Monday.  You have to go big totals. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

The BOX AFD is a good read despite their maps. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think 36 is the ceiling 

There will be a NEMO band somewhere - 2 faves right now are Monmouth county then SEMASS