2026 Severe Wx - General Thread

[Powerball]

Pretty large enhanced risk area stretching back into NE OH tomorrow, on top of the broader slight risk area for MI / IN and the rest of OH.

Seems to be some question as whether the pre-frontal trough vs. actual cold front will be the focus point though...

[Chinook]

New severe thunderstorm watches in IN/MI/OH/PA along with the enhanced risk outlook type area. A few storms are getting going in Flint in South Bend, but nothing much. Probably a marginal severe storm by Flint. KDTX has no radar data, by the way, so that's a bummer for me an a couple of you guys in Michigan.

[Greenwald]

Had a quick five minute rain here then done. Looks like it's all south of me now. Nothing severe, classic July storm.

[Powerball]

On 7/18/2026 at 1:30 PM, Chinook said:

New severe thunderstorm watches in IN/MI/OH/PA along with the enhanced risk outlook type area. A few storms are getting going in Flint in South Bend, but nothing much. Probably a marginal severe storm by Flint. KDTX has no radar data, by the way, so that's a bummer for me an a couple of you guys in Michigan.

It ended up being largely a nothingburger for Michigan any way, outside a narrow corridor from the Tri-Cities to Lake St. Clair. Instability, low-level moisture and shear were sufficient, but the nebulous forcing wasn't enough to overcome the residual cap and the dry air advecting in aloft.

Kind of unfortunate, because I'm sure meaningful rain would have been nice for the Detroit area after the past few days..

[sbnwx85]

After striking out with the storms yesterday we got a good storm today. Nothing severe but it was nice to get some heavy rain and thunder.

[MidwestChaser]

00z 4k nam wants to bring a line into the metro Monday night.

[nvck]

Rare to see the CSU and SPC so at odds (wrt Tuesday). 12k NAM has a couple rounds here locally, one midday and one later in the evening, while the RRFS has just one, in the afternoon. my interest is certainly piqued whenever we get strong flow in the summer, so expecting at least a few SVRs throughout the day.

[A-L-E-K]

Monday got some miss west/south stink

[cyclone77]

Cedar Rapids looks to be the place to be per usual here in the DVN cwa.

[Chinook]

The SPC outlook for tomorrow (7/20) has enhanced risk for wind in the upper Midwest, with 5% tornado outlook in Wisconsin. The 00z convection-allowing model runs have several scattered storms in Wisconsin and Iowa, with higher updraft helicity tracks

[TheNiño]

Oshkosh AirVenture could be interesting. Not like there’s 10s of thousands of people camping and thousands of planes that aren’t tied down properly. Hopefully they catch a break

[A-L-E-K]

18 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Monday got some miss west/south stink

LOT can smell it 

Thus far, the new activity near the Minnesota and Iowa border has
remained largely cellular and disorganized. However, have noted
evidence of a southward push of the overall complex (a recent
28kt wind gust at an AWOS station out of the north under one of
the cores). Accordingly, current thinking is that there should
still be a southward propagation to the new development into
northern Iowa in the coming hours and perhaps as far south as
central or even southern Iowa by mid-morning, much in line with
prior thinking. Will also have to watch if there is any
expansion of trailing thunderstorms across west- central
Minnesota as it would also be poised to move southward along the
instability axis into northern Iowa later this morning. With
all of this in mind, still do see an off-ramp from a severe
weather day in our local area in the form of a prohibitive
"wall" of stable air in Iowa left over from early- day
thunderstorms that blocks the surface-based instability axis
from arcing northeastward into northern Illinois and southern
Wisconsin later this afternoon.

With all of that said, would be remiss to ignore the possibility
that the early-day thunderstorms largely fall apart by daybreak
and/or have a much more limited footprint than currently
expected. Exploring the scenario where the instability axis
does reach (at least part of) our area later today, the
kinematic wind field would still be very favorable for severe
weather and support supercells and bowing clusters with a threat
for all hazards. There could very well be more than one round of
storms with a mid-afternoon round tied to a subtle lead impulse
embedded in the northwesterly flow on the eastern edge of the
instability axis and another round later in the evening and
overnight period tied to the dominant upper-level wave. It is
worth noting the HRRR is stubbornly persistent in showing this
scenario today.