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2026 Severe Wx - General Thread


largetornado
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New severe thunderstorm watches in IN/MI/OH/PA along with the enhanced risk outlook type area. A few storms are getting going in Flint in South Bend, but nothing much. Probably a marginal severe storm by Flint. KDTX has no radar data, by the way, so that's a bummer for me an a couple of you guys in Michigan.

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On 7/18/2026 at 1:30 PM, Chinook said:

New severe thunderstorm watches in IN/MI/OH/PA along with the enhanced risk outlook type area. A few storms are getting going in Flint in South Bend, but nothing much. Probably a marginal severe storm by Flint. KDTX has no radar data, by the way, so that's a bummer for me an a couple of you guys in Michigan.

It ended up being largely a nothingburger for Michigan any way, outside a narrow corridor from the Tri-Cities to Lake St. Clair. Instability, low-level moisture and shear were sufficient, but the nebulous forcing wasn't enough to overcome the residual cap and the dry air advecting in aloft.

Kind of unfortunate, because I'm sure meaningful rain would have been nice for the Detroit area after the past few days..

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Rare to see the CSU and SPC so at odds (wrt Tuesday). 12k NAM has a couple rounds here locally, one midday and one later in the evening, while the RRFS has just one, in the afternoon. my interest is certainly piqued whenever we get strong flow in the summer, so expecting at least a few SVRs throughout the day.

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The SPC outlook for tomorrow (7/20) has enhanced risk for wind in the upper Midwest, with 5% tornado outlook in Wisconsin. The 00z convection-allowing model runs have several scattered storms in Wisconsin and Iowa, with higher updraft helicity tracks

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