2026 Severe Wx - General Thread

[largetornado]

With a slight risk of severe on thursday in southern half of subforums, time to kick off this years general severe weather thread. Pretty conditional tor threat on thursday but if thermos improve, this looks to be a classic warm front rider event for the area. Some similarities between this and 12/1/2018. Im not overly optimistic as the models are kinda all over the place right now. NAM suite doesnt have good 60+ dews. Low placement among models is a pretty big spread. The experimental models (RRFS and MPAS-RN) are certainly more bullish. 

[frostfern]

27 minutes ago, largetornado said:

With a slight risk of severe on thursday in southern half of subforums, time to kick off this years general severe weather thread. Pretty conditional tor threat on thursday but if thermos improve, this looks to be a classic warm front rider event for the area. Some similarities between this and 12/1/2018. Im not overly optimistic as the models are kinda all over the place right now. NAM suite doesnt have good 60+ dews. Low placement among models is a pretty big spread. The experimental models (RRFS and MPAS-RN) are certainly more bullish. 

You don’t even need 60+ dews this time of year.  

[sbnwx85]

What I love about February is toggling between SPC and Kuchera maps on a daily basis. 


 

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
   LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms with potential to produce a few tornadoes and
   damaging wind gusts are possible across parts of the middle
   Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon into early
   evening.

   ...Synopsis...
   Two shortwave troughs are expected to quickly lift
   north-northeastward through the central Plains and into the Ohio
   Valley region on Thursday. The initial perturbation will reach
   Illinois/Indiana by early afternoon. The intensity of this feature
   will remain modest with perhaps some gradual weakening in time. The
   second trough will evolve in the lower Missouri Valley during the
   evening and intensify as it approaches the lower Ohio Valley by
   Friday morning. At the surface, a cyclone will deepen as it lifts
   northeastward from eastern Kansas into the Great Lakes region. At
   least partially modified Gulf moisture will advect northward ahead
   of the surface cold front from the Upper Midwest into the southern
   Plains.

   ...Lower/middle Ohio Valley...
   Ahead of the cold front, a prefrontal trough/pseudo dryline is
   expected to be the focus for convective development during the
   afternoon. The degree/quality of moisture return ahead of this
   feature will be key in terms of the overall magnitude of the severe
   threat. Current observations (Tuesday) from soundings depict a very
   modest moist layer along the Gulf coast. A modest shortwave trough
   on Tuesday night into Wednesday will lift northward too quickly for
   more substantial moisture return. The surface pattern on Thursday
   will be more robust, but deeper moisture may still not reach far
   enough north given that mid 60s F dewpoints are only as far north as
   the central Gulf currently. Guidance suggests mid to upper 50s F
   dewpoints are most probable, which does seem reasonable. That said,
   temperatures aloft will not be overly cold and lapse rates will not
   be overly steep. This will lead to convection that may remain
   somewhat low topped in nature. Despite limiting factors within the
   environment, 40-50 kts of effective shear roughly perpendicular to
   the boundary will favor discrete storms. Low-level flow will be
   increasing with time as well. Supercells capable of few tornadoes,
   damaging winds, and isolated large hail are possible during the
   afternoon/evening.

[KeenerWx]

Ready for some more thunder!

[A-L-E-K]

this is our year

[Stebo]

I actually wouldn't be surprised if this is a very active year for the region, with the plains being dry you can help push the EML/dryline further east than normal.