495weatherguy Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Can we get estimates on timing? For example, starting time. The time it starts to crank Duration blizzard conditions timing End time? not looking for exact times Just best guesses 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Winds will be insane according to HRRR 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deathstar9 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: Still snowing btw. At the end of this run still precip all the way back into almost central PA so at least another 6-7 hrs with the low crawling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, deathstar9 said: At the end of this run still precip all the way back into almost central PA so at least another 6-7 hrs with the low crawling. Been a while since we've had a long duration event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, 495weatherguy said: Can we get estimates on timing? For example, starting time. The time it starts to crank Duration blizzard conditions timing End time? not looking for exact times Just best guesses Start time 7-10am Cranking by 6pm blizzard conditions 8pm 5am ish sometime mid day monday it ends. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deathstar9 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, 495weatherguy said: Can we get estimates on timing? For example, starting time. The time it starts to crank Duration blizzard conditions timing End time? not looking for exact times Just best guesses Looks like light snow into the city around noon maybe a bit earlier. Snow in some capacity at least until Monday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: Been a while since we've had a long duration event. I think it was the January 31, 2021 event. That one went at least 3 days, maybe even into a 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 just soak it in 5 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Snowlover11 said: Start time 7-10am Cranking by 6pm blizzard conditions 8pm 5am ish sometime mid day monday it ends. Thank you! really trying to figure out if it’s worth staying up all night or not. Even though my days of loving snow are in the past, this seems like a potentially special, once in a generation type storm. worth losing a little sleep over it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Really do not envy forecasters in the DC area. Models showing anything from 2 inches to over a foot; gonna be a real nowcast situation down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Blizzard and Winter Storm Warnings ExpandedThe blizzard warnings were extended about a county inland by the NWS (counties in orange) and those watches for counties in NEPA were converted to warnings (pink), as the NWS clearly has more confidence in more snowfall making it that far inland so they upped snowfall for everyone especially west of 95. Below is a bulleted summary of the blizzard/winter storm warnings which is easier to digest than those long text strings the NWS puts out. Hopefully we'll see a new NWS map soon, as snowfall amounts have been increased, as per these warning amounts. Specifically, the warning for Somerset/Middlesex/Mercer is for 16-20" of snow and the map had us at 12-16" (and this goes for everyone). The links below have the full text for all of the warnings.Blizzard Warnings from the NWS-Philly and NYC Blizzard Warning for Atlantic-Cape May Counties for blizzard conditions with total snow accumulations between 12 and 20 inches and winds gusting as high as 50 mph. Blizzard Warning for Gloucester-Camden-NW Burlington-Cumberland-Counties for blizzard conditions with total snow accumulations between 14 and 20 inches and winds gusting as high as 45 mph. Blizzard Warning for Monmouth-Ocean-SE Burlington Counties for blizzard conditions with total snow accumulations between 15 and 20 inches and winds gusting as high as 50 mph. Blizzard Warning for Morris-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer Counties for blizzard conditions with total snow accumulations between 16 and 20 inches and winds gusting as high as 45 mph. Blizzard Warning for Passaic-Hudson-Bergen-Essex-Union Counties for blizzard conditions with total snow accumulations between 12 and 18 inches and winds gusting as high as 50 mph Blizzard Warning for Westchester-Manhattan-Bronx-Staten Island-Brooklyn-Suffolk-Queens-Nassau Counties for blizzard conditions with total snow accumulations between 15 and 20 inches and winds gusting as high as 55-60 mph Blizzard Warning for N Westchester-Rockland Counties for blizzard conditions with total snow accumulations between 11 and 15 inches and winds gusting as high as 45 mph Note: blizzard warnings are also up for Delaware and Connecticut, as well as Rhode Island/Mass (not including those details) Winter Storm Warnings from the NWS-Philly and NYC (very close to blizzard conditions, looking at the winds) Winter Storm Warning for Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton Counties for total snow accumulations between 8 and 16 inches and winds gusting as high as 45 mph Winter Storm Warning for Delaware-Philadelphia-Chester-Montgomery-Bucks Counties for total snow accumulations between 14 and 18inches and winds gusting as high as 40 mph Winter Storm Warning for Sussex-Warren-Hunterdon Counties for total snow accumulations between 13 and 18 inches and winds gusting as high as 45 mph Winter Storm Warning for Salem County for total snow accumulations between 14 and 18 inches and winds gusting as high as 40 mph https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=PHI&wwa=blizzard warninghttps://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=PHI&wwa=winter storm warning 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deathstar9 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: I think it was the January 31, 2021 event. That one went at least 3 days, maybe even into a 4th. Winds were pretty middling with that one, this will have insane drifting. Looks like gusts 55-60 well inland could be 70-80 on the immediate coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freezing Drizzle Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, samdman95 said: Really do not envy forecasters in the DC area. Models showing anything from 2 inches to over a foot; gonna be a real nowcast situation down there NWS shows 2-4 inches, for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, samdman95 said: Really do not envy forecasters in the DC area. Models showing anything from 2 inches to over a foot; gonna be a real nowcast situation down there If I remember correctly boxing day was a bust for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: If I remember correctly boxing day was a bust for them. the SW edge of these things are always brutal 12/30/00 was a disaster there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Nam is going to be big 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deathstar9 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Winds on the nam are beyond belief 30-35 sustained into NYC already by hr 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 LMAO if the NAM is right no one in south jersey is gonna be able to leave their home for a week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Nam is a shutdown blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Nibor said: LMAO if the NAM is right no one in south jersey is gonna be able to leave their home for a week. all of NJ is crushed-lots of snow back into EPA now too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 My goodness the nam is insane and it justs getting going here. Jersey is buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 i have no words 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Remember the NAM tends to overamp so maybe cut it down by 1/3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: i have no words 1 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 i have no wordssay it with me: BECS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, weathermedic said: Remember the NAM tends to overamp so maybe cut it down by 1/3 So only 2 feet instead of 3 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, weathermedic said: Remember the NAM tends to overamp so maybe cut it down by 1/3 Not when the gfs has the same output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 27" in NYC at 1 PM Thu and it's still going 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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