The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

[TriPol]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Me

We all staying here for the 06z NAM??

[MJO812]

Just now, TriPol said:

We all staying here for the 06z NAM??

Yes

[MJO812]

Gfs and Nam are outliers being too strong. I can see them downgrade a bit.

[TriPol]

2 minutes ago, njwx7 said:

This is a valid point.

I think the problem is that we have been burnt so many times by betting against the euro. You would think that within 70 hours the euro would have a good handle on this. With that being said, euro has performed poorly lately. 

Regardless of final outcome, all models have performed poorly with this system. Euro has been atrocious with this, even if it ends up being correct in its current depiction.

This is a hot-hand fallacy. It refers to the tendency to believe that a person who has experienced a run of success, such as winning several games in a row, has a higher probability of continuing to win because they are “on a roll.” The classic example comes from basketball, where fans assume a player who has made several consecutive shots is more likely to make the next one.

Just because the EURO has been right in the past, does not mean it will be right this time around. No, if all the other models were showing nothing and the Euro was showing a blizzard where we could up to 2 feet of snow, I would not go all in. 

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs and Nam are outliers being too strong. I can see them downgrade a bit.

I've seen the NAM overamp storms a million times, but the GFS is usually suppressed or warm. Plus the UKMET, CMC and GEM are all with the GFS and NAM.

[Snowlover11]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs and Nam are outliers being too strong. I can see them downgrade a bit.

Not really icon and uk kinda back it up although not as extreme.

[Winterweatherlover]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs and Nam are outliers being too strong. I can see them downgrade a bit.

Yes I said earlier I'd like to see some non American model support for a HECS, since we didn't get it I think it's on the table but not necessarily a likely outcome. Still think mostly everyone in the subforum gets a foot barring a major last second east shift. 

[njwx7]

03z

21z

 

On a positive note, SREF mean has improved. 

[kat5hurricane]

The Euro is an outlier but this is the reason why forecasters aren't jumping on the high end numbers quite yet because there's still time for this to trend east. It looks like a significant snow at the very least but I don't think a historic storm is a lock quite yet. I think 8-12+ is a good call right now 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

The Euro is an outlier but this is the reason why forecasters aren't jumping on the high end numbers quite yet because there's still time for this to trend east. It looks like a significant snow at the very least but I don't think a historic storm is a lock quite yet. I think 8-12+ is a good call right now 

Agree

[MJO812]

Nice bump west with cmc ensembles 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Mail Man said:

Euro AI never really liked this storm. It's east.

This is true at all. It showed some good runs. 

[TriPol]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nice bump west with cmc ensembles 

Every single model keeps bumping west. The EURO holds serve. Either every single weather model is seeing something that the EURO isn't, or every single weather model is wrong and the EURO is right. 

We're 36 hours away.... something is up with the EURO imho.

[TriPol]

12 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

The Euro is an outlier but this is the reason why forecasters aren't jumping on the high end numbers quite yet because there's still time for this to trend east. It looks like a significant snow at the very least but I don't think a historic storm is a lock quite yet. I think 8-12+ is a good call right now 

The problem is, what if we get 18 - 24 inches of snow and the TV mets keep calling for 6-12 because one model refuses to budge?

[Snowlover11]

Euro isn’t like how it was back in the day, not saying its wrong but something has to give.

[njwx7]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is true at all. It showed some good runs. 

Agree. It has pretty consistently been between the GFS and Euro. The current 00z track is still great.

What I'm not sure about, and maybe someone has the answer here, is how well it performs with QPF. My understanding is that the AI models run at a lower resolution and have a tendency to smooth things out. 

Assuming that is true, I would seriously consider track and rely on mesos to work out the QPF.

 

 

[njwx7]

5 minutes ago, TriPol said:

The problem is, what if we get 18 - 24 inches of snow and the TV mets keep calling for 6-12 because one model refuses to budge?

I saw someone mention this earlier, and I totally agree.

If the mets predict 6-12 and we get 18-24, the general public won't really remember it. 6-12 is generally "enough" to get most people to avoid travel and change plans. However, if they predict 18-24 and we get 4, the public won't forget it. They will be unhappy that they adjusted their plans for a "minor" event and will call this a bust. 

It's a real tough spot to be in as a forecaster

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, njwx7 said:

I saw someone mention this earlier, and I totally agree.

If the mets predict 6-12 and we get 18-24, the general public won't really remember it. 6-12 is generally "enough" to get most people to avoid travel and change plans. However, if they predict 18-24 and we get 4, the public won't forget it. They will be unhappy that they adjusted their plans for a "minor" event and will call this a bust. 

It's a real tough spot to be in as a forecaster

I think that’s exactly right, and it really does put forecasters in a no-win spot. As we get inside about 48 hours, higher-resolution, short-range guidance starts to carry more weight. Models like the NAM, HRRR, and other mesoscale systems can better resolve banding, localized deformation zones, and boundary-layer thermal structure. That’s where snowfall totals can swing dramatically over small distances.

[njwx7]

1 hour ago, njwx7 said:

I don't envy the position of the NWS. Very interested to see what they do. Euro is clearly an eastern outlier but I don't seem them throwing out the euro suite in the same way that they would if it was the GFS depicting this solution.

Upton's response (as of 2:15 AM) is to advertise the following for NYC:

Low End: 1"
Forecasted: 9"
High End: 21"

What's a 20" spread amongst friends?

 

 

[TriPol]

7 minutes ago, njwx7 said:

Upton's response (as of 2:15 AM) is to advertise the following for NYC:

Low End: 1"
Forecasted: 9"
High End: 21"

What's a 20" spread amongst friends?

 

 

That's so odd that they've knocked 2 inches off of the forecast when the models (except the EURO) have gotten better. 

[Snowlover11]

Holy shit blizzard warning!!!

[Noteaster101]

Just now, Snowlover11 said:

Holy shit blizzard warning!!!

For who neighbor?

[dmillz25]

Just now, Noteaster101 said:

For who neighbor?

NYC LI westchester coastal CT

[Noteaster101]

Just now, dmillz25 said:

NYC LI westchester coastal CT

Oh wow, didn’t make it to Rockland

[Snowlover11]

WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations between 13 and 18 inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Visibilities may drop below 1/4 mile due to falling and blowing snow. Whiteout conditions are expected and will make travel treacherous and potentially life-threatening. The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs may down power lines and could cause sporadic power outages. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. Strong winds could cause tree damage.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strongest winds and blizzard conditions are expected to Sunday night into Monday. However, snow will move in during the morning and afternoon hours.

[TriPol]

2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Holy shit blizzard warning!!!

HOLY SHIT!! 

[nycwinter]

i guess they are discounting the euro somewhat.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Bombs away.!!. Blizzard warning.!!..the ticker on my phone woke me up with this news. 

[Snowlover11]

For those north and west,

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
244 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

CTZ005>008-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ069-070-211900-
/O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0002.260222T1100Z-260223T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0002.260222T1100Z-260223T2300Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern
New London-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-
Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern
Union-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
244 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 11
  and 15 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey,
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs may
  down power lines and could cause sporadic power outages. Travel
  could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could
  significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could
  impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strongest winds are expected Sunday night
  into Monday. However, snow will move in during the morning and
  afternoon hours.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. Check local Department of
Transportation information services for the latest road conditions.

Persons should delay all travel if possible. If travel is absolutely
necessary, drive with extreme caution and be prepared for sudden
changes in visibility. Leave plenty of room between you and the
motorist ahead of you, and allow extra time to reach your
destination. Avoid sudden braking or acceleration, and be especially
cautious on hills or when making turns. Make sure your car is
winterized and in good working order.

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

i guess they are discounting the euro somewhat.

Wow.