SnowGoose69 Posted Thursday at 11:39 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:39 PM Just now, psv88 said: Euro fail eh? Yikes This is still a small piece or two from going 75 miles west of that Euro run or 100 miles east. Its why I said earlier today this one was 75-25 miss vs 3 weeks ago that was 95-5 a miss. That event at this range just needed way too many things to break right. This one however is subject to big moves still. I think we could easily see a crazy swing one direction or another the next 2-3 cycles. 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted Thursday at 11:40 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:40 PM 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Agreed we need some follow through. This could be off hour run nonsense That's what I'm thinking, 0z will be way more telling but regardless this is exactly the type of shift we needed to give some credibility to the GFS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted Thursday at 11:40 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:40 PM Model noise 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mail Man Posted Thursday at 11:42 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:42 PM 1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said: That's what I'm thinking, 0z will be way more telling but regardless this is exactly the type of shift we needed to give some credibility to the GFS solution. Yeah I have to see a GFS hold and another Euro shift to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 11:43 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:43 PM 5 minutes ago, Mail Man said: As of now it caved a bit towards the GFS. It caved alot at h5. Eps is doing the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 11:45 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:45 PM Wow eps big time shift to gfs 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mail Man Posted Thursday at 11:45 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:45 PM 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: It caved alot at h5. Eps is doing the same. The phasing does look better so far over at 18z EPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted Thursday at 11:46 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:46 PM 5 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: Ok, I might be eating some major crow here. I did not see this happening with the Euro AT ALL, it has hardly waivered for days. It could be a windshield wiper effect when it corrects back east eventually but this is a surprising turn of events. Then again 18z runs tend to be wonky so not sure how serious this shift is. correct me if i'm wrong, but even at best this is a classic nj shore long island event that would give a few inch crumbs to many of us north of the driscoll bridge, right? and that's if it even happens. and i gotta say, this is still kinda far out to get excited about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted Thursday at 11:46 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:46 PM I’ve been trying all day to tell people, it’s not like the pattern needed to fundamentally change to get us there Now, just because the 18z runs trended well doesn’t mean it’s going to happen, but still it just goes to show how relatively small adjustments early on can turn into major changes down the road 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted Thursday at 11:47 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:47 PM There seems to be a common theme between the higher impact runs. The confluence to the NE is backing off more. Allowing some higher heights out ahead of the ULL and a closer to the coast track. Keep it coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted Thursday at 11:47 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:47 PM 6 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: Model noise most likely 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted Thursday at 11:47 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:47 PM Substantial changes at 500 mb on the EPS. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted Thursday at 11:48 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:48 PM Just now, weatherpruf said: correct me if i'm wrong, but even at best this is a classic nj shore long island event that would give a few inch crumbs to many of us north of the driscoll bridge, right? and that's if it even happens. and i gotta say, this is still kinda far out to get excited about. Who says it’s done trending? I think there is a northward limit, mind you, and the most likely event in the case of a hit is those coastal areas, but still I’d think anywhere from the coast to like Poughkeepsie is still in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted Thursday at 11:48 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:48 PM 1 minute ago, EasternLI said: There seems to be a common theme between the higher impact runs. The confluence to the NE is backing off more. Allowing some higher heights out ahead of the ULL and a closer to the coast track. Keep it coming. That and closer interaction between the two western waves is what we want 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Thursday at 11:49 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:49 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Thursday at 11:49 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:49 PM 8 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: Model noise ANd if not? Euro isn’t the euro it used to be. No models are good anymore can’t discount any of them. Euro has been all over the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 11:50 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:50 PM 3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: most likely How is this noise ? Some of you post nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted Thursday at 11:51 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:51 PM 3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: correct me if i'm wrong, but even at best this is a classic nj shore long island event that would give a few inch crumbs to many of us north of the driscoll bridge, right? and that's if it even happens. and i gotta say, this is still kinda far out to get excited about. I do think probably this has a west edge extreme maybe like December 09 or so as far as big amounts. I think even if it works out something like 50-75 miles west of the 18z Euro Op is probably the best doable at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted Thursday at 11:52 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:52 PM Convective feedback, we toss! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 11:53 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:53 PM This is gfs like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted Thursday at 11:53 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 11:53 PM 12 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: Model noise The eps is stupidly northwest too lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mail Man Posted Thursday at 11:53 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:53 PM EPS looks pretty damn good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted Thursday at 11:54 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:54 PM 12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: This is still a small piece or two from going 75 miles west of that Euro run or 100 miles east. Its why I said earlier today this one was 75-25 miss vs 3 weeks ago that was 95-5 a miss. That event at this range just needed way too many things to break right. This one however is subject to big moves still. I think we could easily see a crazy swing one direction or another the next 2-3 cycles. Recon information is inputted. I think there is some more info to be put in yet. It will be interesting to see the 00z runs coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted Thursday at 11:55 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:55 PM 2 minutes ago, Blizzardo said: Convective feedback, we toss! Which is what even the NWS said about the first GFS run to show the boxing day blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Thursday at 11:56 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:56 PM Model noise probably 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted Thursday at 11:56 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:56 PM Just now, hudsonvalley21 said: Recon information is inputted. I think there is some more info to be put in yet. It will be interesting to see the 00z runs coming up. The old joke and sometimes it WOULD happen in these cases is the model that had the storm being impactful would immediately bail when the other ones jumped on board. Knowing the GFS nothing would surprise me such as it abandoning ship and the NAM/ICON/CMC/RGEM all looking like the 18Z euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Thursday at 11:57 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:57 PM this is one of the biggest shifts I have ever seen from the EPS at this range. dumbfounding 6 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted Thursday at 11:58 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:58 PM 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This is gfs like Ohhhh a lot of those have that sexy, sexy loop look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted Thursday at 11:59 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:59 PM 3 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: Which is what even the NWS said about the first GFS run to show the boxing day blizzard. I remember reading that AFD. And then the Euro came on board lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Thursday at 11:59 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:59 PM Euro AIFS eps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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