Brian5671 Posted Tuesday at 06:01 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:01 PM 1 minute ago, mob1 said: Regular Euro looks terrible oh well fun while it lasted! 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted Tuesday at 06:04 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:04 PM 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: oh well fun while it lasted! bro euro is like the most horrible model 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted Tuesday at 06:04 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:04 PM oh well fun while it lasted!It's a hell of a lot better than 0z - so it's figuring it out. It's been crap this year. It's smarter AI brother means much more these days. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted Tuesday at 06:05 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:05 PM Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said: bro euro is like the most horrible model Everyone here agrees the 12z euro is right. Time to pack it up homie. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted Tuesday at 06:06 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:06 PM Just now, Nibor said: Everyone here agrees the 12z euro is right. Time to pack it up homie. you know where the door is Nibor 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Tuesday at 06:07 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:07 PM 2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: bro euro is like the most horrible model It's not. It's near the top for performance. I was mostly kidding above but we've seen the last 2 bigger storms miss to the S and E so it's possible but at day 5-6 anything's on the table 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted Tuesday at 06:11 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:11 PM There’s time but I’d like to see the Euro at least showing some kind of hit by tomorrow. Lots of potential and would make this winter one of the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted Tuesday at 06:11 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:11 PM 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: It's not. It's near the top for performance. I was mostly kidding above but we've seen the last 2 bigger storms miss to the S and E so it's possible but at day 5-6 anything's on the table i'm sticking with a blend of GFS and Euro Ai those are better models. I would rate euro as good as icon or ukmet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Tuesday at 06:12 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:12 PM IMO all options still on the table - we are too far out to determine exactly when and if a phase will occur . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted Tuesday at 06:15 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:15 PM Regular Euro vs. the world... as of right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted Tuesday at 06:16 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:16 PM We've been here before. Nobody knows what this storm is gonna do. Get it till Friday still showing this out come an maybe I'll bite. Still wayyy too much time for this to go either way. But i'd sell weathergeek an snowman to make it happen 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted Tuesday at 06:18 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:18 PM I wouldn't worry about the Euro since it's all alone. However this is a delicate setup, so something could easily go wrong to cause no storm for our area. At least we have a chance of seeing something big, and it'll be interesting tracking it over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted Tuesday at 06:19 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:19 PM See what the euro ensembles sure at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Tuesday at 06:19 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:19 PM 2 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: Regular Euro vs. the world... as of right now. GEFS ensemble guidance was not fully onboard either and the Euro - AI was further east - southeast and could easily follow the Euro OP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted Tuesday at 06:22 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:22 PM GEFS ensemble guidance was not fully onboard either and the Euro - AI was further east - southeast and could easily follow the Euro OPThe Euro and Euro AI aren't very really related from my understanding, which explains why their solutions are vastly different very often. And unless 6z was noticeably better than 12z for Euro OP, then 12z is much better than 0z from last night. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Tuesday at 06:22 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:22 PM 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: GEFS ensemble guidance was not fully onboard either and the Euro - AI was further east - southeast and could easily follow the Euro OP People hear what they want to hear-got to look at it all and the seasonal trend-when was the last time we had a benchmark storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted Tuesday at 06:23 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:23 PM People hear what they want to hear-got to look at it all and the seasonal trend-when was the last time we had a benchmark storm?Means were due lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted Tuesday at 06:24 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:24 PM 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: GEFS ensemble guidance was not fully onboard either and the Euro - AI was further east - southeast and could easily follow the Euro OP two things i'd like to point out, euro hasn't scored one storm this year and Gefs is always out to lunch! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted Tuesday at 06:26 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:26 PM if eps shows a whiff than i'd take the euro run more serious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted Tuesday at 06:28 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:28 PM 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: People hear what they want to hear-got to look at it all and the seasonal trend-when was the last time we had a benchmark storm? now i don't claim to have a great handle on this stuff, but i saw people here saying the recent big snow to sleet storm was a benchmark storm...so what defines a benchmark storm? because i have seen big ones that were not exactly miller a bowling balls.....this last big one and jan 2005 come to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Tuesday at 06:29 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:29 PM 2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: if eps shows a whiff than i'd take the euro run more serious The GEFS are vastly different that the OP GFS-would you toss the GFS op? Nope b/c it shows the preferred solution 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted Tuesday at 06:30 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:30 PM 5 minutes ago, mriceyman said: Means were due lol . i think we had our big storm this year; and it was a doozy. as for being due.....where you around from 1984-93? ok, jan 87 featured a good one in north jersey and one in south jersey. and that was it. we can go a long time between big snows. we just went 5 years, though 2024 had a big one locally here in nj, i believe it was an inverted trough, help me out here folks..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted Tuesday at 06:30 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:30 PM AI-EPS at 00z Monday. 00z - 06z - 12z runs in that order. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Tuesday at 06:32 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:32 PM 5 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: if eps shows a whiff than i'd take the euro run more serious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted Tuesday at 06:33 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:33 PM 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: The GEFS are vastly different that the OP GFS-would you toss the GFS op? Nope b/c it shows the preferred solution yes because the GEFS suck! The EPS is way more accurate than its op at this stage, I never use the GEFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Tuesday at 06:35 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:35 PM 1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: yes because the GEFS suck! The EPS is way more accurate than its op at this stage, I never use the GEFS! the eps is only an advisory level event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Tuesday at 06:38 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:38 PM 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: the eps is only an advisory level event with marginal temps would need heavier precip otherwise urban areas could have trouble accumulating lighter rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Tuesday at 06:42 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:42 PM 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: with marginal temps would need heavier precip otherwise urban areas could have trouble accumulating lighter rates agreed also after reviewing all the 12Z guidance I would say IMO there is a 50/50 chance of a SECS and a 30 % chance of a MECS - what does everyone else think percentage wise ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted Tuesday at 06:43 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:43 PM 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: with marginal temps would need heavier precip otherwise urban areas could have trouble accumulating lighter rates At this point the only things off the table IMO are a cutter or runner. I think the only 2 questions that remain are is this a hit? Or is it south/OTS? With 5-6 days to go, either one is certainly possible 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted Tuesday at 06:44 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:44 PM 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: agreed also after reviewing all the 12Z guidance I would say IMO there is a 50/50 chance of a SECS and a 30 % chance of a MECS - what does everyone else think percentage wise ? i'd say 50% hecs, 30% whiff and 20% advisory like eps 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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