2/15-16: Slopocalypse or Bust

[rjvanals]

Euro is so frustrating since w heavier precip we’d probably get snow even into the metros w surface temps of 34 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, 87storms said:

Lol nice. I only had the 2014 2 door sport s (anvil) but I remember my aunt had a 96 (around that year) red grand Cherokee and it was awesome. I drove it a few times. Those Stellantis prices, though. What are your thoughts on the current base Wranglers with the steel rims? I feel like they look a bit cheap, but I guess they’re more rugged?

No idea lol. At some point I will be looking to upgrade. Getting close to 120k miles.

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

Euro is so frustrating since w heavier precip we’d probably get snow even into the metros w surface temps of 34 

So serious analysis. It’s close. Boundary temps are the only issue. Places NW of 95 in MD are at 34-35 during the height of the storm with .25-.35 qpf across guidance now. If the storm were to amp say 2mb deeper and that became .5 qpf it would be enough to flip to a 1-3” snow.  4mb and .75 qpf and its a 3-5” wet snow!  It’s that close. The track is perfect. But our temps are torched at the surface so we need a stronger storm to max dynamic cooling 2 degrees more than current progs. 
 

How likely is this?  10-20%. Getting that amount of error isn’t unlikely but unfortunately it’s more likely to be in the other direction. Models have a slight over amp bias and a +qpf bias. So we’re rooting for a bust that goes the opposite way or typical errors!  Not impossible. There have been examples. It’s not totally dead. But it’s on life support and we need some world class surgeon to swoop in and perform a miracle surgery. 

[Bob Chill]

[clskinsfan]

NAM is a decent rainer for all of us. Which we need badly. Is what it is. 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

NAM is a decent rainer for all of us. Which we need badly. Is what it is. 

I want my 2 degrees back damnit!  
 

[Ji]

Every model in the past 3 days gave us accumulating snow but in the end the least snowiest model always wins

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Strong -PNA's and +EPO downstream effect is underestimated in the medium range by all models. 

[87storms]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

No idea lol. At some point I will be looking to upgrade. Getting close to 120k miles.

My suggestion...ride that thing into the ground until jeep prices come down. Those engines and transmissions can last unless you're off-roading on the regular.

[87storms]

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

Every model in the past 3 days gave us accumulating snow but in the end the least snowiest model always wins

I'm kinda impressed at how well the Euro AI did:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2026020718&fh=192

[Maestrobjwa]

32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I want my 2 degrees back damnit!  
 

I'm starting to catch your angst over this and I don't like it, lol I'm gonna just pretend a better PDO will save the day...and or simply believe the next Niño will finally deliver our HECS 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

14 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

NOT WITH THAT TRACK ON FEB 15!!! 

Dude we had this damn debate a few days ago. Yea it was cold, when we had a perfect pacific epo pna ridge. Of course it was cold go back and look at the flow, air was coming straight out of the arctic cross polar and dumping into the Eastern US. And Utah was torching with highs in the 60s!  We’ve had that kind of thing before and it was even COLDER!  Look at 1977 and 1994!  We’ve had high temps near 0 in past years with that kind of direct arctic discharge with snowcover.  30 years ago what we just had would have been even colder Chuck.  
 

And the globe didn’t suddenly get colder we were juts lucky to be under the tiny bit if cold real estate!  look at the global heights from Jan 25-Feb 5. 70% is still RED Chuck.  
 

For the last time this isn’t about what happens when we are lucky enough to have a perfect pac pattern that dumps arctic air over us and we’re in the 30% of the world that’s blue.  I know we can still snow them. But what happens the rest of the time???  What about the 70% when we’re under the red?  When thickness are now 10-15m higher in the same pattern. You don’t think that makes a difference. You don’t think if the whole thicknesses were a little lower tomorrow or might not tip the scales from rain to snow for some places in this forum?  Have you looked at the soundings tomorrow?  The whole damn column is cold enough except the boundary where it’s 35-38 degrees.  Guess what layer is warming fastest!  The boundary. How can you possibly think it’s not making a difference with the marginal storms?  So many of our past snows were barely cold enough because we’ve always been on the southern edge of where it snows much in winter.  
 

If you’re going to argue warming isn’t hurting us then you need to answer these 3 questions. 

1) where did all the marginal snows during hostile pacific patterns go?  Why don’t we get snows from perfect track waves during warm patterns anymore?   Because we used to. I know. I have a data base of all of them. So what happened?  why are perfect track waves doing hostile pac patterns juts perfect track rain now?  What changed? 

2) why has the median and mean snowfall for DC and Baltimore been declining consistently for 100 years and accelerating in the last 50. Explain it.  Baltimore used to average almost 25” of snow and now it’s 19 and likely to fall closer to 16 when it updates next decade!  Why?  What happened to 30% of our snow? 
 

3) since you’re saying warming isn’t hurting us in these marginal Situations then explain this. All the snowstorms we got during otherwise warm periods from a perfect track wave in the past when it was barely cold enough to snow…take early March 1962 for example. Some places just NW of 95 got 10” but with temps of 33-34 degrees while it was snowing.  It just snowed hard enough to overcome the very marginal temps. But it’s warmer now. How would that still be snow if you apply today’s temps to that storm. Now it’s 35-36!  The whole column is warmer too. Which is worse because it was probably isothermal so now it has 5000 feet of 35 to overcome instead of 33. How is that still a snowstorm?  
 

Or are you saying it’s not warmer?  That thicknesses haven’t increased. That thermometers are broken and they’re all lying to us?  
 

because you can’t have it both ways. So much of our snow in the past came when it was barely cold enough to snow. So you cannot say it’s warmer but don’t worry that’s not hurting us. You can’t because if you warm is at all we lose so much of our past snow. 1-2 degrees F warmer and so many of those storms I documented get worse. Become 3” instead of 5”. A 3” wet slop becomes just rain!  And suddenly it only snows during cold regimes and you say warming has nothing to do with it which makes absolutely no sense logically. How can you warm what was already a barely cold enough to snow equation and say it’s no big deal to our snowfall?  Explain that Chuck. 

It just snowed south of Tampa. Islip NY just had 19 consecutive days with a low temp of 19° or colder, the longest stretch on record, going back to the 1800s. It snowed 10" in Florida last Winter, which was the most on record for the state since the 1800s, previous record 4". There is meteorological reasoning, it's not because Donald decided to drive his car today. I'm not arguing with you global warming in general: There are macro stats that explain it well. I think it's more about you complaining and not wanting to concede that this was predicted 8 days ago, by methods you disagreed with. I'm not really engaging in your tangent about "where have all the borderline storms gone". I said it before, and I'll say it in the future, the Pacific with +450dm is extreme, and a fast Pacific jet disconnects the northern stream, and floods the US with low level warm air. A storm like this gets cutoff from the freezing line. It's not a borderline event at all: Our average high temp in the heart of Winter in strong -PNA is mid 40s. I don't care if 6% of the examples broke the trend. I know in 97-98 we had these "perfect track rainstorms" all the time.. I think 72-73 too. etc. I know the average statistics, and you are riding hard on anomalies, it usually won't work out. 

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It just snowed south of Tampa. Islip NY just had 19 consecutive days with a low temp of 19° or colder, the longest stretch on record, going back to the 1800s. It snowed 10" in Florida last Winter, which was the most on record for the state since the 1800s, previous record 4". There is meteorological reasoning, it's not because Donald decided to drive his car today. I'm not arguing with you global warming in general: There are macro stats that explain it well. I think it's more about you complaining and not wanting to concede that this was predicted 8 days ago, by methods you disagreed with. I'm not really engaging in your tangent about "where have all the borderline storms gone". I said it before, and I'll say it in the future, the Pacific with +450dm is extreme, and a fast Pacific jet disconnects the northern stream, and floods the US with low level warm air. A storm like this gets cutoff from the freezing line. It's not a borderline event at all: Our average high temp in the heart of Winter in strong -PNA is mid 40s. I don't care if 6% of the examples broke the trend. I know in 97-98 we had these "perfect track rainstorms" all the time.. I think 72-73 too. etc. I know the average statistics, and you are riding hard on anomalies, it usually won't work out. 

I think the southern hits over the past decade are Nina based Chuck. We have been stuck in a never ending cycle of watching the south get hit and then getting skipped while the Eastern Shore and occasionally NE gets hit as well. I know everyone is worried about a Nino. I am not. It is time to break the cycle of suck. Yes I am in a better spot to succeed in a Nino than the cities. But the cities have failed as well for almost a decade at this point. We need precip to target our area again. And I will take my chances with a wound up southern stream that is actually capable of cooling the column. There is nothing normal about the past 7 years of weather. Nothing at all. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I think the southern hits over the past decade are Nina based Chuck. We have been stuck in a never ending cycle of watching the south get hit and then getting skipped while the Eastern Shore and occasionally NE gets hit as well. I know everyone is worried about a Nino. I am not. It is time to break the cycle of suck. Yes I am in a better spot to succeed in a Nino than the cities. But the cities have failed as well for almost a decade at this point. We need precip to target our area again. And I will take my chances with a wound up southern stream that is actually capable of cooling the column. There is nothing normal about the past 7 years of weather. Nothing at all. 

Per RONI, 5 of the last 6 years (20-26) have been La Nina.  Per RONI, 7 of the last 10 years (16-26) have been La Nina. Per RONI, 11 of the last 19 years (07-26) have been La Nina. Per RONI, 15 of the last 28 years (98-26) have been La Nina. That's >50% La Nina since 1998. It should be 33.3%. 

[clskinsfan]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Per RONI, 5 of the last 6 years (20-26) have been La Nina.  Per RONI, 7 of the last 10 years (16-26) have been La Nina.  Per RONI, 11 of the last 19 years (07-26) have been La Nina.   Per RONI, 15 of the last 28 years (98-26) have been La Nina. That's >50% La Nina since 1998. 

Well yeah. And they almost all sucked ass. 

[WEATHER53]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Per RONI, 5 of the last 6 years (20-26) have been La Nina.  Per RONI, 7 of the last 10 years (16-26) have been La Nina.  Per RONI, 11 of the last 19 years (07-26) have been La Nina.   Per RONI, 15 of the last 28 years (98-26) have been La Nina. That's >50% La Nina since 1998. It should be 33.3%. 

Wasn’t that the huge El Niño  in 98 and things do seem different since about then ?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Wasn’t that the huge El Niño  in 98 and things do seem different since about then ?

97-98 was a huge El Nino, then we were followed by 3 La Nina's, 2 Strong Nina's. Huge El Nino's have been reversed in the following 3 years. Something interesting to ponder. Is it because of these strong El Nino states that we are getting multi-year Nina states in the years that follow? It's been a decadal pattern though, yeah, starting after the 97-98 Super Nino. Some think it's because of the low solar 2001-2020 that we hadn't seen that low since the 1800s. 

[mappy]

4 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

lol amazing 

[stormtracker]

55 minutes ago, mappy said:

lol amazing 

It’s beautiful.