2/15-16: Slopocalypse or Bust

[stormtracker]

NAM precip just stops at the Potomac and goes east on the 78  panel, lol

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

NAM precip just stops at the Potomac and goes east on the 78  panel, lol

The key to that post is 78 panel.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

The key to that post is 78 panel.

and 81, and 84

[soadforecasterx]

You wont get precip to come north unless you get the phase. 

[Weather Will]

NAM looked better at first when it was in its range.....

[Scraff]

26 minutes ago, bncho said:

Alright, now we have a 25% chance of 10+". Let's make it count!

Bitching Nachos bringing the hot queso! Manifest it and make it happen. 

[bncho]

On 2/11/2026 at 3:34 PM, bncho said:

The CMC is all we got. 

I've got a decent track record for threads so maybe I can carry that on to this storm. It's four days out now so might as well separate this from the LR thread*.

We need a lot of luck to make this happen. Prayers will be needed but they will not be enough. May the odds be ever in our favor!

*mods may delete this if they deem fit

Now all we have is the Euro and the Euro AI.

[Herb@MAWS]

My local NWS forecast/Columbia has 60% chance rain and snow later Sunday. Low temp Sunday night 33. Of course no accums. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Let’s juice this thing up at a paste bomb at 33 degrees.  Would be fun as hell.  Hopefully the euro and euro ai keep trending.

 

[TSSN+]

21 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said:

You wont get precip to come north unless you get the phase. 

 

[TSSN+]

Icon looking better than 12z 

[soadforecasterx]

Really like what im seeing at 500 on icon at 72

[TSSN+]

 Get the precip in but it’s basically all rain except little snow far north edge. But it’s a step in right direction 

[soadforecasterx]

its a sloppy phase but a step towards euro

[stormy]

For Sunday/Monday, availability of cold air will be crucial. 

Damming is establishing as I write from HP over the northern lakes and LP toward 50/50.

NWS  believes CAD will be limited. I am not convinced of that.........................     

I am currently leaning toward a colder solution.           

 

[MDSnow93]

5 minutes ago, stormy said:

For Sunday/Monday, availability of cold air will be crucial. 

Damming is establishing as I write from HP over the northern lakes and LP toward 50/50.

NWS  believes CAD will be limited. I am not convinced of that.........................     

I am currently leaning toward a colder solution.           

 

I'm just going to pretend a red tagger said this. Anyone else vs NWS... I'm going with NWS

[WesternFringe]

1 hour ago, stormy said:

This is fools gold

 

14 minutes ago, stormy said:

For Sunday/Monday, availability of cold air will be crucial. 

Damming is establishing as I write from HP over the northern lakes and LP toward 50/50.

NWS  believes CAD will be limited. I am not convinced of that.........................     

I am currently leaning toward a colder solution.           

 

Huh?

[stormtracker]

16 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

My deck is so expansive i don’t think i have the space to upload it here. You will just have to use your imagination. Unfortunately Deck Pic has been banned. I miss him . 

Ok friend. Gotta cut these type of joke from here on out. Ladies on board 

[stormy]

3 minutes ago, MDSnow93 said:

I'm just going to pretend a red tagger said this. Anyone else vs NWS... I'm going with NWS

This is very fluid situation with many players.

NWS confident solution at 6 pm may be completely different at 6 am as new solutions are available. 

I hope that you can understand that.

[stormy]

2 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

 

Huh?

This model is not ready for Primetime. Next winter it probably will be because of how quickly AI is advancing.

Any person who gives great credence to this model at this time has not studied its support.

[Maestrobjwa]

42 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

 

Not obvious for all that are reading though.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS 4pm Sunday

[Weather Will]

7pm

[Weather Will]

10 pm

[rjvanals]

The lack of replies shows how well the GFS is regarded 

[ravensrule]

Just now, rjvanals said:

The lack of replies shows how well the GFS is regarded 

If it's the Euro, GFS along with the AI models it definitely raises an eyebrow. We're only 3 days out now. This may actually happen. 

[StormyClearweather]

Just now, rjvanals said:

The lack of replies shows how well the GFS is regarded 

Which is funny considering the bouncing around pretty much every model has been doing with this system, which we've been tracking for approximately six years. Except maybe the UKMET. 

[rjvanals]

2 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

If it's the Euro, GFS along with the AI models it definitely raises an eyebrow. We're only 3 days out now. This may actually happen. 

It wouldn’t be shocking—but if you look at the soundings, we’re barely isothermal, which leaves us no room for error.

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, rjvanals said:

It wouldn’t be shocking—but if you look at the soundings, we’re barely isothermal, which leaves us no room for error.

Like @psuhoffmansaid it's probably a 20% chance, there is definitely a chance it's just not a great chance. In the past having the Euro and GFS in your camp almost guaranteed it. 

[WesternFringe]

22 minutes ago, stormy said:

This model is not ready for Primetime. Next winter it probably will be because of how quickly AI is advancing.

Any person who gives great credence to this model at this time has not studied its support.

You said it was fools gold but then said the NWS was wrong and the CAD was underdone.  But if the CAD was underdone then it gives more credence to the Euro AI solution vs the rainier physics based model solutions.  Your two posts together make no sense.

Lastly, the Euro AI has the highest verification scores on the planet right now.  So your comment about it not being ready for primetime makes no sense to me either.