2026-2027 Super El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^That's probably why the GLAAM goes so positive. 

[Jebman]

I have a question: If this record Nino goes very very very very very far east-based, does this mean places far west like Texas will end up missing out of some or most of the rain? Someone in an earlier post stated the Nino will be extremely far east-based, and the convection will follow it OUCH! That, does not sound very good for all of us DRY PARCHED TEXANS. Man that would be a massive BUMMER. Because I crave floods Floods FLOODS FLOODS!!!!

[so_whats_happening]

14 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

July 2026 PDO: -2.03

 

13 hours ago, GaWx said:

I just saw -1.29 rather than -2.03 for NOAA July 2026 PDO here:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat

 That’s almost exactly what the WCS dailies in July average at. The vast majority of the time NOAA has been significantly more negative like had been the case since Feb.

There seem to be 2 different sites for the PDO.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat

This one shows -1.29 

 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

This one labels it as -2.03

[mitchnick]

4 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

 

There seem to be 2 different sites for the PDO.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat

This one shows -1.29 

 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

This one labels it as -2.03

Based solely on the url, it looks like v5 (version 5?) is the lower number and v6 (version 6?) is the higher number.

[snowman19]

This thermocline is ridiculous

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

 

There seem to be 2 different sites for the PDO.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat

This one shows -1.29 

 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

This one labels it as -2.03

This is the one that I use, as I have found that the other reading hasn't accurately depicted the severity of this Pacific cold phase throughout the 2020's.

 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/

 

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is the one that I use, as I have found that the other reading hasn't accurately depicted the severity of this Pacific cold phase throughout the 2020's.

 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/

 

That’s the link I’ve been going to also. That’s because whenever I google NOAA PDO or PDO NOAA, it takes me there. (I don’t have it saved as a bookmark.) But the server has been N/A much of the time since yesterday for some reason.

[bluewave]

Northern Hemisphere pattern going into August still out of sync with the record breaking El Niño. 
 

 

 

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Northern Hemisphere pattern going into August still out of sync with the record breaking El Niño. 
 

 

 

Southern hemisphere appears to be better synced with the el nino, though. Not perfectly, but close. Troughs and ridges look to be approximately in the same places, albeit slightly off. S Pac looks like split flow, aiding those record snows in the Chilean Andes. 

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Southern hemisphere appears to be better synced with the el nino, though. Not perfectly, but close. Troughs and ridges look to be approximately in the same places, albeit slightly off. S Pac looks like split flow, aiding those record snows in the Chilean Andes. 

Yeah, that is what I noticed especially reading the all-time record high pressure in Australia with the -SOI and extreme conditions in South America.

Perhaps it’s related in some way to the record early stratospheric disruption last November. Following the strong blocking last winter, record low pressure developed north of Alaska during the spring and has continued into the summer.

This has been associated with the record ridging and heat across the mid-latitudes. It would be a nice topic for a research paper. 

[snowman19]

A small area of +10C is starting to develop in the subsurface

[PhiEaglesfan712]

MJJ 2026 ONI (NOAA): +1.4

MJJ 2026 RONI: +1.0

AMJ 2026 ONI (Eric Webb): +1.0 [NOAA's value came at +0.9]

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Northern Hemisphere pattern going into August still out of sync with the record breaking El Niño. 
 

 

 

Not exactly strong correlations to begin with in the NH, with the exception of the low southwest of the Aleutian’s that appears to be displaced about 60 degrees east. 

[LakePaste25]

For the NH at least, it appears to be a better fit for +PMM, which is an actual pattern driver much more so than the PDO.

 

[snowman19]

For the NH at least, it appears to be a better fit for +PMM, which is an actual pattern driver much more so than the PDO.
 

Completely agree about the PMM. Once we get into met fall and the effects in the NH start to become much more pronounced, I think that’s when we see a big pattern shift along with the change in the PDO. The +IOD just got going at the tail end of July. Once that strengthens throughout the fall and starts constructively interfering/coupling with El Niño, that’s when the big changes in the NH really get going

[bluewave]

38 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Not exactly strong correlations to begin with in the NH, with the exception of the low southwest of the Aleutian’s that appears to be displaced about 60 degrees east. 

At least the PNA is trying to match the usual August El Niño expectations. But the other areas still have the lingering -PDO or La Niña influence. So maybe this is the start of the El Niño having of more 500 mb influence on our pattern. 
 

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

At least the PNA is trying to match the usual August El Niño expectations. But the other areas still have the lingering -PDO or La Niña influence. So maybe this is the start of the El Niño having of more 500 mb influence on our pattern. 
 

 

I think there has been a repeated pattern of the -PDO diving in the warm season with the marine heat wave off Japan through south of Aleutians as a result of the 500mb pattern, and then it abates through the fall and early winter as the NH cools. It will be very interesting to see if the NH atmosphere fully couples with the El Nino once the NH cools, or if the -PDO remains deeply negative. I would not be surprised if the PDO rises to near-neutral levels, but if it doesn't, then we would enter uncharted waters with super nino + super negative PDO. I'm not sure that's ever happened before, at least not at this level.

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

 

I think there has been a repeated pattern of the -PDO diving in the warm season with the marine heat wave off Japan through south of Aleutians as a result of the 500mb pattern, and then it abates through the fall and early winter as the NH cools. It will be very interesting to see if the NH atmosphere fully couples with the El Nino once the NH cools, or if the -PDO remains deeply negative. I would not be surprised if the PDO rises to near-neutral levels, but if it doesn't, then we would enter uncharted waters with super nino + super negative PDO. I'm not sure that's ever happened before, at least not at this level.

Yeah, that has been the seasonal PDO pattern during the 2020s. Steep summer decline followed by rebound back closer to neutral during the winter. Most summers the 500mb driving influence for the -PDO has been the ridge to the east of Japan.

This July the ridge north of Hawaii had a much greater influence. More like what we saw during a more Niña-like July 2012.

While the seasonal models have been missing this pattern since May, a rebound to a more +PNA and -EPO from August on is what they have been forecasting. So at least this element of the forecast may be in the early stages of developing.

But we are still getting very strong ridge amplifications off the East Coast and in the Southwest in early August which appears to be the lingering La Niña -PDO 500 mb pattern influence.

If even a small amount of-PDO influence at 500 mb continues into the winter, then it could mean a weaker or displaced Aleutian low complex relative to 1997-1998. The exact locations of the low pressure would help determine where the Nino ridge axis focuses over North America.

Any -PDO 500 mb influence could result in higher heights located south or potentially east of 1998 which when the main 500 mb ridge was centered south of Hudson Bay.

 

 

 

[LakePaste25]

How is 55 degree water “overriding El Niño”? I’m sorry I just don’t buy that 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, LakePaste25 said:

How is 55 degree water “overriding El Niño”? I’m sorry I just don’t buy that 

It's not the absolute temperature of the water. It's the atmospheric pattern above it that's been the driver.

[LakePaste25]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

It's not the absolute temperature of the water. It's the atmospheric pattern above it that's been the driver.

Yes. -PDO is not the cause, it’s an effect of the pattern. 

[Terpeast]

2 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

Yes. -PDO is not the cause, it’s an effect of the pattern. 

I think there's been some conflation between the SST PDO pattern and the atmospheric pattern that drives this SST pattern. Many of us refer to the atmopsheric pattern that's driving the SST configuration as the PDO. I'm guilty of it, too. 

[ensonerd1233e343]

10 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This thermocline is ridiculous

The atmospheric response is more ridiculus imo