2026-2027 Super El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

IRI model consensus of +3.05c would make it the Strongest El Nino on record since 1950 by +0.25c (NDJ 15-16, +2.8c) [ONI]. 

Number 2 is +2.4c (ONDJ 97-98), which it would beat by more than 20%!

Since 1950, there has never been a La Nina <-2.0c. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 good signs for the Winter:

1) SSTA south of New Foundland is cold. This is up to 65% correlated to DJFM -NAO

2)-PDO is cooling off a bit

[snowman19]

All one has to do is look at this….the last 2 super El Niños (1997, 2015) at this point in time compared to this one. It’s not even close…it’s blatantly obvious we have a historic, monster event coming…..

[Stormchaserchuck1]

+2.03c on this date is greater than +1.7c in 1997 and 2015 at this time for highest since 1950 (+16%!)

[LakePaste25]

48 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

2 good signs for the Winter:

1) SSTA south of New Foundland is cold. This is up to 65% correlated to DJFM -NAO

2)-PDO is cooling off a bit

Should see that -PDO continue to weaken into the Fall as the CTKW’s move north along the west coast and the upwelling from the california current weakens as the N Pac high begins to take a beating. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I agree Ray. I’m not understanding some of what I’m seeing on twitter calling for big west-based -NAO blocking this winter. Descending solar coming off a big max, high geomag, +QBO, super El Niño….sorry but that doesn’t scream -NAO blocking to me. But then again when you look at the account peddling that, it makes sense…..

Well, I do see an opportunity for some of that, but I'm speaking of the seasonal mean. It clearly will not be the predominate DJFM pattern.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

That's a good point. This is 2 years after a Solar Max:

We know that +AO/NAO is favored +1-5 years after Solar Max. 

Also, 4/5 Super east-based Nino's have happened during +NAO decadal phase (82-83, 97-98, 15-16, 23-24 -vs- 72,73). This year will make 5/6 Super Nino's happening in +NAO decadal unless we see a 09-10 type -NAO season. 

Check it out.. 13 February's in a row have had +NAO, and most are >+1.00 NAO!

2014   1.34   
2015   1.32   
2016   1.58  
2017   1.00   
2018   1.58  
2019   0.29   
2020   1.26   
2021   0.14   
2022   1.68   
2023   0.92  
2024   1.09  
2025   1.60   
2026   0.68

It seems that NAO is far more malleable and influenced by the solar cycle and ENSO than the AO, so I feel strongly that the AO will be lower than the NAO this season.

[mitchnick]

10 hours ago, bluewave said:

That wasn’t a good forecast either for what verified. Still much too cool from upper Midwest into the Northeast.

You seem to be taking my model criticism personally in some regard by the tone of your responses. It isn’t my intention to put you on the defensive in any way.

It would be great if all the seasonal model forecasts were as good as the JMA for your best winter in 2013-2014. 

https://www.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/data/news/tccnews34.pdf

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/wmc/products/model/map/7mE/map1/pztmap.php

 

I'm not taking anything personal on this Board. Lol I'm just being blunt. You've said several times that the seasonal models are just spitting out canonical enso winter forecasts and Cfs2 clearly didn't based on the temp forecast you criticized but never posted. And remember, you picked the 23/24 winter as the example. 

But we agree on 1 thing. The seasonal models won't be right in all locations around the globe. If you're going to judge them based on an entire continent or the world, then fine, they stink. But that doesn’t mean they can't be close in some areas. I only care about the east, specifically the N. Mid Atlantic. As Gawx has proven in several recent posts on the subject, they've been pretty good around here lately, including 23/24. So they are worth considering. And like I said, if they showed warm, please don't kid yourself that you wouldn't be posting or referencing them. 

[michsnowfreak]

39 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'm not taking anything personal on this Board. Lol I'm just being blunt. You've said several times that the seasonal models are just spitting out canonical enso winter forecasts and Cfs2 clearly didn't based on the temp forecast you criticized but never posted. And remember, you picked the 23/24 winter as the example. 

But we agree on 1 thing. The seasonal models won't be right in all locations around the globe. If you're going to judge them based on an entire continent or the world, then fine, they stink. But that doesn’t mean they can't be close in some areas. I only care about the east, specifically the N. Mid Atlantic. As Gawx has proven in several recent posts on the subject, they've been pretty good around here lately, including 23/24. So they are worth considering. And like I said, if they showed warm, please don't kid yourself that you wouldn't be posting or referencing them. 

Good post. 99% of weather enthusiasts dont care what the temp ranking was in the Conus or the world...they care what happened in their area. The combination of a cold winter in the east and a record warm winter in the west in '25-26 brought some posters to ignore their own weather and concentrate on places elsewhere to a level I've never seen in 24 years on weather forums.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Good post. 99% of weather enthusiasts dont care what the temp ranking was in the Conus or the world...they care what happened in their area. The combination of a cold winter in the east and a record warm winter in the west in '25-26 brought some posters to ignore their own weather and concentrate on places elsewhere to a level I've never seen in 24 years on weather forums.

I think it's important to be mindful of both if you are genuinely interested in the weather and especially if you forecast. It's important to take CC into account in forecasts, so it helps to be in tune with the rate at which it continues to progress, regardless of whether the NE CONUS was in a pocket of colder air last season. It important to keep everything in context...that said, it was refreshing to confirm that CC is not prohibitive to good NE winters.

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, mitchnick said:

As Gawx has proven in several recent posts on the subject, they've been pretty good around here lately, including 23/24. So they are worth considering. And like I said, if they showed warm, please don't kid yourself that you wouldn't be posting or referencing them. 

2023-2024 wasn’t even close in your area or mine from the seasonal models. What difference does it matter if they are warm or too cold? An incorrect forecast is an incorrect forecast if you are interested in trying to figure out your sensible weather.

I understand some posters like yourself enjoy posing forecasts that they would personally like to see. Nothing wrong with that. But wouldn’t you like to actually post a model run that has a chance of being correct rather than what you want it to show?

I mostly  post longer range ENSO plumes forecasts and general SST forecasts from the seasonal models where they can sometimes have more skill. If I post a temperature or 500 mb forecast, it’s mostly to see where the model might be or has made an error in the past.

I also see several posters mention that they are only interested in their own backyard or local area. That’s OK also. But if you want to understand how to find the potential range of outcomes you need to have a broader understanding of how your area is related to the greater patterns in the region, continent, and planet. 

It just so happens that as the world warms, the weather records count is more heavily skewed toward warmth than cold. So the models just have more opportunities to be wrong about the magnitude of the warmth. And yes they do miss the cold from time to time also. But since cold is less frequent these days, the opportunities are less. 

In my region we have had over 50 top 10 warmest months since 2010 and only one top 10 coldest. Many most of those top ten warmest months weren’t forecast by the longer range climate models. The one top 10 coldest month during February 2015 wasn’t forecast either. 

We posted many of the incorrect model forecasts at the time of how the long range weeklies missed the pattern change to colder in February. I remember there were literally dozens of posts about how the weeklies missed the record cold in February from the long range. 

I can guarantee you that I we had a climate getting colder rather than warmer, I would post maps of the models  missing the cold long range. There would probably be some posters that would say why I am I so focused on the models missing the cold and I only am interested in the cold. 
 

 

 

[GaWx]

11 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I'm not taking anything personal on this Board. Lol I'm just being blunt. You've said several times that the seasonal models are just spitting out canonical enso winter forecasts and Cfs2 clearly didn't based on the temp forecast you criticized but never posted. And remember, you picked the 23/24 winter as the example. 

But we agree on 1 thing. The seasonal models won't be right in all locations around the globe. If you're going to judge them based on an entire continent or the world, then fine, they stink. But that doesn’t mean they can't be close in some areas. I only care about the east, specifically the N. Mid Atlantic. As Gawx has proven in several recent posts on the subject, they've been pretty good around here lately, including 23/24. So they are worth considering. And like I said, if they showed warm, please don't kid yourself that you wouldn't be posting or referencing them. 

To set the record straight, 25/26 rather than 23/24 is the winter that I said that @bluewavewas too harsh on as regards the 8/1/25 Euro and mid-July ‘25 CFS performance overall for the Conus. They forecasted ~+2F anomalies for the Conus averaged out geographically, which was ~36F. I posted them here:

 

That means they were predicting the 7th or 8th warmest winter on record back to 1895. It ended up at 37.1F, which is ~3F above both the 1993-2016 climo base of the Euro and the 1991-2020 climo base of the CFS and the 2nd warmest on record. That’s a decent performance by these two imho, especially with DJF being ~6 months out! They missed by only ~1F and thus still predicted quite a warm winter even though not warm enough:

[GaWx]

 The -SOI streak just hit 72 days, which is tied with 1997 for the 2nd longest -SOI streak since the daily record start in 1991! There’s a near 100% chance that it will reach a new 2nd longest streak of 73 days tomorrow:

https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

2023-2024 wasn’t even close in your area or mine from the seasonal models. What difference does it matter if they are warm or too cold? An incorrect forecast is an incorrect forecast if you are interested in trying to figure out your sensible weather.

I understand some posters like yourself enjoy posing forecasts that they would personally like to see. Nothing wrong with that. But wouldn’t you like to actually post a model run that has a chance of being correct rather than what you want it to show?

I mostly  post longer range ENSO plumes forecasts and general SST forecasts from the seasonal models where they can sometimes have more skill. If I post a temperature or 500 mb forecast, it’s mostly to see where the model might be or has made an error in the past.

I also see several posters mention that they are only interested in their own backyard or local area. That’s OK also. But if you want to understand how to find the potential range of outcomes you need to have a broader understanding of how your area is related to the greater patterns in the region, continent, and planet. 

It just so happens that as the world warms, the weather records count is more heavily skewed toward warmth than cold. So the models just have more opportunities to be wrong about the magnitude of the warmth. And yes they do miss the cold from time to time also. But since cold is less frequent these days, the opportunities are less. 

In my region we have had over 50 top 10 warmest months since 2010 and only one top 10 coldest. Many most of those top ten warmest months weren’t forecast by the longer range climate models. The one top 10 coldest month during February 2015 wasn’t forecast either. 

We posted many of the incorrect model forecasts at the time of how the long range weeklies missed the pattern change to colder in February. I remember there were literally dozens of posts about how the weeklies missed the record cold in February from the long range. 

I can guarantee you that I we had a climate getting colder rather than warmer, I would post maps of the models  missing the cold long range. There would probably be some posters that would say why I am I so focused on the models missing the cold and I only am interested in the cold. 
 

 

 

Guessing Feb 2015 was the one top-ten coldest.

I wish we would focus a bit more on temp maxes instead of mean because I feel like the nocturnal element does inflate the degree of impact somewhat. I don't really care if its 21 on RAD nights instead of 18....I care how warm it is during the day and when it's precipitating. Don't get me wrong....I know it's warming, I'm not trying to steal anyone's climate change, but it's warming the most on clear nights and the days/stormy nights are most relevant to us.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

2023-2024 wasn’t even close in your area or mine from the seasonal models. What difference does it matter if they are warm or too cold? An incorrect forecast is an incorrect forecast if you are interested in trying to figure out your sensible weather.

I understand some posters like yourself enjoy posing forecasts that they would personally like to see. Nothing wrong with that. But wouldn’t you like to actually post a model run that has a chance of being correct rather than what you want it to show?

I mostly  post longer range ENSO plumes forecasts and general SST forecasts from the seasonal models where they can sometimes have more skill. If I post a temperature or 500 mb forecast, it’s mostly to see where the model might be or has made an error in the past.

I also see several posters mention that they are only interested in their own backyard or local area. That’s OK also. But if you want to understand how to find the potential range of outcomes you need to have a broader understanding of how your area is related to the greater patterns in the region, continent, and planet. 

It just so happens that as the world warms, the weather records count is more heavily skewed toward warmth than cold. So the models just have more opportunities to be wrong about the magnitude of the warmth. And yes they do miss the cold from time to time also. But since cold is less frequent these days, the opportunities are less. 

In my region we have had over 50 top 10 warmest months since 2010 and only one top 10 coldest. Many most of those top ten warmest months weren’t forecast by the longer range climate models. The one top 10 coldest month during February 2015 wasn’t forecast either. 

We posted many of the incorrect model forecasts at the time of how the long range weeklies missed the pattern change to colder in February. I remember there were literally dozens of posts about how the weeklies missed the record cold in February from the long range. 

I can guarantee you that I we had a climate getting colder rather than warmer, I would post maps of the models  missing the cold long range. There would probably be some posters that would say why I am I so focused on the models missing the cold and I only am interested in the cold. 
 

 

 

Without going into a competing long response, I  frankly just don't care about a warming planet. There's nothing I  can do about it aside from having a well insulated home (which I have since I receive the highest rating from my local energy provider for houses my size) and driving a fuel efficient vehicle. It is not, nor has it ever been, on my list of life's concerns at all. I care about weather imby and judge that weather from current conditions and progs. How those conditions got there, I don't care.

[bluewave]

Some extreme effects from this record developing El Nino showing up in South America.

 

 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

To set the record straight, 25/26 rather than 23/24 is the winter that I said that @bluewavewas too harsh on as regards the 8/1/25 Euro and mid-July ‘25 CFS performance overall for the Conus. They forecasted ~+2F anomalies for the Conus averaged out geographically, which was ~36F. I posted them here:

 

That means they were predicting the 7th or 8th warmest winter on record back to 1895. It ended up at 37.1F, which is ~3F above both the 1993-2016 climo base of the Euro and the 1991-2020 climo base of the CFS and the 2nd warmest on record. That’s a decent performance by these two imho, especially with DJF being ~6 months out! They missed by only ~1F and thus still predicted quite a warm winter even though not warm enough:

My mistake Larry. Sorry. Still, I  contend the AN forecast in 23/24 from the Cfs2 was not bad as it was on the correct side of normal for the east+ and got warmer as the season approached. 

[Typhoon Tip]

17 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

2 good signs for the Winter:

1) SSTA south of New Foundland is cold. This is up to 65% correlated to DJFM -NAO

2)-PDO is cooling off a bit

I'd be careful with the bold ...

The straight up linear correlation, sure - that's ...sort of similar to the tripole SST state, which is highly correlated to -NAOs..etc..etc..but, the causality of why that colder region is notable there is circumstantially - quite possibly - evolved for different reason..   Mimicry, in other words.   

There's is ongoing research about a recent decadal persistent "Atlantic cold blob" that is being geophysically connected to a longer term changes/flux of the AMOC ... Of course, CC and attribution science is all over that.  Some bigger media, definitely social media doomers, are pumping out warnings how that portends the end of the G-string circulation eddy et al ... reaming on people's chode hair that the new paradigm will mean a black and white noir this that and the other Michael Bay plot line surreality ...   yadda yadda.  

Who knows, but the point is, if there are kernels of truth to that whole science and/or science-narrative, on-going, then it's being caused for other reasons.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Some extreme effects from this record developing El Nino showing up in South America.

 

 

Chris, I find it fascinating that the previous warmest was in August, another winter month! Do you know if that was also in El Niño?

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Chris, I find it fascinating that the previous warmest was in August, another winter month! Do you know if that was also in El Niño?

Yes, I'm pretty sure the August spike was 2023, and likely the September spike as well. I remember there being an anomolous heatwave in South America in August 2023, and another one the following month.

[40/70 Benchmark]

37 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'd be careful with the bold ...

The straight up linear correlation, sure - that's ...sort of similar to the tripole SST state, which is highly correlated to -NAOs..etc..etc..but, the causality of why that colder region is notable there is circumstantially - quite possibly - evolved for different reason..   Mimicry, in other words.   

There's is ongoing research about a recent decadal persistent "Atlantic cold blob" that is being geophysically connected to a longer term changes/flux of the AMOC ... Of course, CC and attribution science is all over that.  Some bigger media, definitely social media doomers, are pumping out warnings how that's portends the end of the G-string circulation eddy et al ... reaming on people's chode hair that the new paradigm will mean a black and white noir this that and the other Michael Bay plot line surreality ...   yadda yadda.  

Who knows, but the point is, if there are kernels of truth to that whole science and/or science-narrative, on-going, then it's being caused for other reasons.

Yea, I love Chuck's formula, but I am skeptical of it this year with that signal.

[GaWx]

The OHC per this is now >+2.5 due to a rapid rise! Due to possible interpolation in the near future IF this were hitting a (temporary) max, this could be cooled on future graphs. But even if so, July has almost definitely hit a new high for the event:

***I’ve been having big problems today with inability to connect, lag, etc. This is similar to the problems of a few weeks ago. Anyone else having problems? @Wow

[GaWx]

The coldest on record DMI 80N+ temps continue! This started in late May and hasn’t stopped! I once again just checked every year back to 1958:

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Guessing Feb 2015 was the one top-ten coldest.

I wish we would focus a bit more on temp maxes instead of mean because I feel like the nocturnal element does inflate the degree of impact somewhat. I don't really care if its 21 on RAD nights instead of 18....I care how warm it is during the day and when it's precipitating. Don't get me wrong....I know it's warming, I'm not trying to steal anyone's climate change, but it's warming the most on clear nights and the days/stormy nights are most relevant to us.

Yes, it was Feb 2015, but if something like that happened now, someone will be quick to point out that +10 temp departure in Las Vegas or somewhere out West.

[FPizz]

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The coldest on record DMI 80N+ temps continue! This started in late May and hasn’t stopped! I once again just checked every year back to 1958:

Does this have anything to do with the El Nino?  Maybe very warm in Argentina, and cold up 80N?  Just wondering.  

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Does this have anything to do with the El Nino?  Maybe very warm in Argentina, and cold up 80N?  Just wondering.  

Good question. I don’t know but they’re both fascinating to see.

—————————
Aside: I’ve been having big problems today with inability to connect, lag, etc. This is similar to the problems of a few weeks ago. Anyone else having problems?

[PhiEaglesfan712]

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Good question. I don’t know but they’re both fascinating to see.

—————————
Aside: I’ve been having big problems today with inability to connect, lag, etc. This is similar to the problems of a few weeks ago. Anyone else having problems?

Yeah, the connection has been spotty this morning.

[snowman19]

Warm water volume up to +2.65

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it's important to be mindful of both if you are genuinely interested in the weather and especially if you forecast. It's important to take CC into account in forecasts, so it helps to be in tune with the rate at which it continues to progress, regardless of whether the NE CONUS was in a pocket of colder air last season. It important to keep everything in context...that said, it was refreshing to confirm that CC is not prohibitive to good NE winters.

I agree with that, especially forecasting-wise. But I was more referring to it in past tense. Everytime anyone brings up this past winter's cold, like clockwork, the post gets dissected by the same few discussing warmth in the west/CONUS/globe etc. It really seems that a few of the warmistas have that chip on their shoulder. You should be able to use the words cold/snow WITHOUT prefacing "yes i know the worlds getting warmer" every single time.

I was a weather observer before I had the internet, and I knew my local climate data history before I know how to read a single model map. Ive always thought it was cool to look into trends of local weather, and living in a place with extreme seasons, it's neat to see subtle trends that dominated decades past and how theyve changed for the better or the worse. I dont care if last winter was an inferno in the entire world, I will remember what happened here, and here it was a cold, white winter. Glittery snow for months straight gets an A+ for scenery/feels, but there is zero doubt in mind that the cold pattern that dominated the region was PROHIBITIVE to heavier snowfall here. So yes, Im saying if I wanted more snow in last years pattern, I actually needed it warmer. And of course the same rings true for the opposite. If its a colder CONUS winter, it wont mean a damn to me if I get a mild winter.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Without going into a competing long response, I  frankly just don't care about a warming planet. There's nothing I  can do about it aside from having a well insulated home (which I have since I receive the highest rating from my local energy provider for houses my size) and driving a fuel efficient vehicle. It is not, nor has it ever been, on my list of life's concerns at all. I care about weather imby and judge that weather from current conditions and progs. How those conditions got there, I don't care.

See my above post- almost EXACTLY what I was trying to say! I have lots of trees in my yard, drive a fuel efficient vehicle, work from home, recycle...I do my part. And I frankly could not care less about a warming planet. I have 4 distinct seasons regardless of ENSO or anything else. This year I have had wind chills to -40F and heat index to 105F, air temp from -10F to 98F. Most years have a similar range. Much like the east coast with its noreasters, its fascinating to see how often and how many ways the Great Lakes influence weather. If ALL of that is overshadowed by "but we are warming 0.5F per decade"....well, tell me youre not a weather enthusiast without telling me.