2026-2027 Super El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

El Nino is just not beating out this North Pacific pattern. Last +PNA month was January

[LakePaste25]

13 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

El Nino is just not beating out this North Pacific pattern. Last +PNA month was January

I think the sample size for pre-super Nino summers is simply too small. That rockies ridge is definitely coming from central pacific forcing. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

I think the sample size for pre-super Nino summers is simply too small. That rockies ridge is definitely coming from central pacific forcing. 

Yeah CPC always had above average temps for the east coast for the Summer and you could kind of intuitively tell that it would be such. The +603dm that some models are showing for the Rockies though is the typical -ENSO pattern that we have seen for the last few decades. 

June-July for warm Nino 1+2:

[LakePaste25]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah CPC always had above average temps for the east coast for the Summer and you could kind of intuitively tell that it would be such. The +603dm that some models are showing for the Rockies though is the typical -ENSO pattern that we have seen for the last few decades. 

June-July for warm Nino 1+2:

Still fairly weak correlations (compared to winter). I think the +AO/+NAO is a bigger contributor to all of this mid latitude heat rather than a non-coupled Nino response (it’s coupled). I don’t think we’ve seen this lack of high latitude blocking in previous super Nino summers and it may not be related to how the Nino itself is developing. Could be something else going on here entirely. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I don't think we've seen a North Pacific low anomaly for more than a couple days since the event began. 

[LakePaste25]

Not even disagreeing with you or claiming you’re wrong just putting different theories out there  

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

Obviously we aren't near peak in early July...goes without saying.

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

I think the sample size for pre-super Nino summers is simply too small. That rockies ridge is definitely coming from central pacific forcing. 

 I don’t agree at all with Jeff B. implying a connection of super-Nino and the current E US heatwave. The mean temp in July (and also in summer as a whole) comes out close to normal rather than hot in the E US when averaging RONI based super strong El Niños. Hardly any were hot. 1957, 65, 72, and 97 were slightly cool. 1982 and 2015 were NN. Only 1991 was hot. That’s just 1 of the 7! That’s enough for me to say that the upcoming super-El Nino in combo with GW is not the direct cause for the current E US heatwave as Jeff said. GW, by itself, obviously favors hotter heatwaves than when the Earth was cooler. But the supposed super-El Nino piece of this, itself, correlating to E US summer heat does not compute to me at all.

 I also don’t at all agree with Jeff calling this one of the most expansive U.S. heatwaves. That’s simply not true. Intense in the VA to Boston corridor? Yes. But not one of the most expansive U.S. heatwaves.

 

[snowman19]

The WPAC is already extremely active with TC’s for sure, but it looks like the EPAC is about to explode with TC’s. In addition to the trade wind reversal and MJO activity, this is going to cause relentless WWBs/westerlies in the weeks and months to come…and with another huge DWKW getting ready to load up, there is no more doubt at this point, this El Niño is going historic
 

^ “As we enter July, models anticipate the Atlantic to remain generally quiet hurricane-wise. El Niño is dominating the current and forecast conditions in the tropical Atlantic, manifesting as high shear in the Caribbean and less thunderstorm activity than normal.

By contrast, the eastern Pacific is expected to spring to life, supported by the El Niño background state. Watch the continuous cyclone activity (orange blobs) in this 35-day GEFS forecast, versus the rather docile Atlantic.”

[Stormchaserchuck1]

31 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I don’t agree at all with Jeff B. implying a connection of super-Nino and the current E US heatwave. The mean temp in July (and also in summer as a whole) comes out close to normal rather than hot in the E US when averaging RONI based super strong El Niños. Hardly any were hot. 1957, 65, 72, and 97 were slightly cool. 1982 and 2015 were NN. Only 1991 was hot. That’s just 1 of the 7! That’s enough for me to say that the upcoming super-El Nino in combo with GW is not the direct cause for the current E US heatwave as Jeff said. GW, by itself, obviously favors hotter heatwaves than when the Earth was cooler. But the supposed super-El Nino piece of this, itself, correlating to E US summer heat does not compute to me at all.

 I also don’t at all agree with Jeff calling this one of the most expansive U.S. heatwaves. That’s simply not true. Intense in the VA to Boston corridor? Yes. But not one of the most expansive U.S. heatwaves.

 

August will be a good test

[bluewave]

This is the first time that a number of stations in the East approached their all-time warmest temperature with a developing super El Niño. 
 

Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature 
for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
Period of record: 1931-01-01 to 2026-07-02
1	104.0	1933-08-01 through 1933-08-01
2	103.0	2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02
-	103.0	2001-08-09 through 2001-08-09
-	103.0	1995-07-16 through 1995-07-16
-	103.0	1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03
-	103.0	1936-07-10 through 1936-07-10
3	102.0	2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22
-	102.0	2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06
-	102.0	1991-07-20 through 1991-07-20
-	102.0	1991-07-19 through 1991-07-19

 

Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature 
for New York-LGA Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
Period of record: 1939-10-07 to 2026-07-02
1	107.0	1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03
2	104.0	2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02
-	104.0	2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22
-	104.0	2001-08-09 through 2001-08-09
3	103.0	2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06
-	103.0	1995-07-15 through 1995-07-15
-	103.0	1948-08-26 through 1948-08-26
4	102.0	2006-08-02 through 2006-08-02
-	102.0	1953-09-02 through 1953-09-02
5	101.0	2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24

 

Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature 
for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
Period of record: 1873-12-04 to 2026-07-02
1	106.0	1918-08-07 through 1918-08-07
2	104.0	1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03
-	104.0	1936-07-10 through 1936-07-10
3	103.0	2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02
-	103.0	2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22
-	103.0	2010-07-07 through 2010-07-07
-	103.0	1995-07-15 through 1995-07-15
-	103.0	1966-07-04 through 1966-07-04
-	103.0	1936-07-09 through 1936-07-09
-	103.0	1930-07-21 through 1930-07-21

 

Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature 
for Reading Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
Period of record: 1888-01-01 to 2026-07-02
1	106.0	2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22
2	105.0	1918-08-07 through 1918-08-07
3	104.0	1918-08-06 through 1918-08-06
4	103.0	2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02
-	103.0	2012-07-07 through 2012-07-07
-	103.0	1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03
-	103.0	1898-07-03 through 1898-07-03
5	102.0	2011-07-21 through 2011-07-21
-	102.0	2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06
-	102.0	1988-07-17 through 1988-07-17

[GaWx]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is the first time that a number of stations in the East approached their all-time warmest temperature with a developing super El Niño. 
 

Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature 
for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
Period of record: 1931-01-01 to 2026-07-02
1	104.0	1933-08-01 through 1933-08-01
2	103.0	2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02
-	103.0	2001-08-09 through 2001-08-09
-	103.0	1995-07-16 through 1995-07-16
-	103.0	1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03
-	103.0	1936-07-10 through 1936-07-10
3	102.0	2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22
-	102.0	2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06
-	102.0	1991-07-20 through 1991-07-20
-	102.0	1991-07-19 through 1991-07-19

 

Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature 
for New York-LGA Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
Period of record: 1939-10-07 to 2026-07-02
1	107.0	1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03
2	104.0	2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02
-	104.0	2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22
-	104.0	2001-08-09 through 2001-08-09
2	103.0	2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06
-	103.0	1995-07-15 through 1995-07-15
-	103.0	1948-08-26 through 1948-08-26
4	102.0	2006-08-02 through 2006-08-02
-	102.0	1953-09-02 through 1953-09-02
5	101.0	2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24

 

Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature 
for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
Period of record: 1873-12-04 to 2026-07-02
1	106.0	1918-08-07 through 1918-08-07
2	104.0	1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03
-	104.0	1936-07-10 through 1936-07-10
3	103.0	2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02
-	103.0	2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22
-	103.0	2010-07-07 through 2010-07-07
-	103.0	1995-07-15 through 1995-07-15
-	103.0	1966-07-04 through 1966-07-04
-	103.0	1936-07-09 through 1936-07-09
-	103.0	1930-07-21 through 1930-07-21

 

Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature 
for Reading Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
Period of record: 1888-01-01 to 2026-07-02
1	106.0	2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22
2	105.0	1918-08-07 through 1918-08-07
3	104.0	1918-08-06 through 1918-08-06
4	103.0	2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02
-	103.0	2012-07-07 through 2012-07-07
-	103.0	1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03
-	103.0	1898-07-03 through 1898-07-03
5	102.0	2011-07-21 through 2011-07-21
-	102.0	2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06
-	102.0	1988-07-17 through 1988-07-17

 This jibes with my response 3 posts above yours to Jeff B.’s implied false connection of the current developing super-Nino to increased very intense heat in the E US based on his Tweet. Only the summer of 1991 was hot overall in the E US as I said, which is essentially agreed with by your lists. I’m referring to Poughkeepsie’s 102 on 7/19/1991. None of the other developing super-Ninos prior to 2026-7 are on any of your 4 lists.

[GaWx]

As of July 2nd per the DMI data, the mean Arctic temperature based on 80N+ has still not quite reached freezing although it was only barely below it yesterday. Going back to 1958, the latest day it first hit freezing before 2026 was way back on June 20th (2013)!

Daily Mean Arctic temp. in degrees Kelvin:  freezing is at 273.15 (July 2nd was 0.1C below freezing):

0260618 169 272.561676
20260619 170 272.634399
20260620 171 272.647522
20260621 172 272.469360
20260622 173 272.153870
20260623 174 271.679565
20260624 175 271.918213
20260625 176 272.421326
20260626 177 272.655334
20260627 178 272.803802
20260628 179 272.680786
20260629 180 272.732056
20260630 181 272.903717
20260701 182 272.963715
20260702 183 273.045624

https://download.dmi.dk/pub/plus80N_temperatureindex/meanT2026_running.txt

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Barring a major volcano, I'm almost certain next summer in the Eastern US is going to smash the average temperature record, even if the hottest day won't reach the highs of 2011 and this year, especially if we transition to a strong la nina.

I'm almost sure that if Pinatubo didn't happen, 1992 would have been another record warm summer in the East, along with the rest of the 1991-95 period.

[GaWx]

CFS 10 day mean relative prog is at a new record high prog for its Nov peak in 3.4:

SON/OND peak +3.2 vs +3.1 earlier vs +2.5 record (1982):

N peak +3.4 vs +3.3 earlier vs +2.7 record (1982):

[snowman19]

26 minutes ago, GaWx said:

CFS 10 day mean relative prog is at a new record high prog for its Nov peak in 3.4:

SON/OND peak +3.2 vs +3.1 earlier vs +2.5 record (1982):

N peak +3.4 vs +3.3 earlier vs +2.7 record (1982):

My guess is that the EURO’s July update on Sunday is also off the charts

@Stormchaserchuck1  The equatorial subsurface in the EPAC is ridiculous 

[Tallis Rockwell]

56 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

My guess is that the EURO’s July update on Sunday is also off the charts

@Stormchaserchuck1  The equatorial subsurface in the EPAC is ridiculous 

Lovely

[TheClimateChanger]

15 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

El Nino is just not beating out this North Pacific pattern. Last +PNA month was January

Wow! Could this be the hottest July on record for the CONUS? If the NBM is to be believed, we could be near 3F above the 1991-2020 means by July 12/13, staring down a potential monster heat ridge mid-month? The existing record is 1936, at +2.38F, followed closely by 2012 at +2.34F. This seems hard to believe with a developing Strong/Super El Nino?

 

[michsnowfreak]

23 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not where I am...it was an utter abomination....but I realize we could have easily had much more snow. The warmth is what it is.

Yeah. You can easily see the potential if a similar pattern shapes up. Southern MI had an early snowstorm (Nov 21) then the shit december....multiple winter storms Jan-early Mar then a winter encore in early April. Once we passed Christmas, any warm spike was quickly followed by a winter storm.

The November snowstorm was very scenic