2026-2027 Super El Nino

[Maestrobjwa]

5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Seemin' like y'all tryin to will a super phat dope ass nuclear nino

Some warmnistas would love nothing more because it would equal the year without a winter, lol

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Some would love nothing more because it would equal the year without a winter, lol

More like I want the W pac warm pool to completely shift east so we can have better synoptic snow the following winters. A mid +2c super nino that probably ends up with a warm winter anyway won’t do the job. Might as well go for the full historic, make this the sacrificial lamb and see if we can get good patterns the years after

[raindancewx]

For anyone wondering - June is a pretty canonical -PNA pattern so far. Not PDO or ENSO driven. Despite the rumor that +PNA = +ENSO, it's never really been true in the Summer. CPC has the PNA as so weak in the Summer that is just has -- for PNA correlations to ENSO - not 0, not -0.87 or +0.33 actual blanks.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/table/corr.table_jun.txt

-PNA June = Cold NW, Hot SW. Green on the lower map is positive correlation (-PNA = cold, +PNA = warm) while blues are opposite correlation (-PNA = warm, +PNA = cold).

You can see the neutral spot over the Southeast shows up as well.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^I can never get U of Del Air Temp working on the correlation composite. Is there a secret to it? 

June will likely be the 5th straight month of -PNA (CPC). I've found that the correlation roll forwards are weak for what happens later in the year, surprisingly. 

[forkyfork]

7 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Seemin' like y'all tryin to will a super phat dope ass nuclear nino

our willpower is working

[snowman19]

And this is quite the WWB….

[PhiEaglesfan712]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

Get ready for 30C minimums in November and December.

[bluewave]

19 hours ago, snowman19 said:

IMO, this one is headed for the history books. I think it ends up as the strongest El Nino event on record

The 500 mb pattern is beginning to look more Nino-like during the second half of June. Finally getting the familiar ridge just west of  British Columbia. This is allowing the typical June El Niño trough to form near the Great Lakes.
 

 

 

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The 500 mb pattern is beginning to look more Nino-like during the second half of June. Finally getting the familiar ridge just west of  British Columbia. This is allowing the typical June El Niño trough to form near the Great Lakes.
 

 

 

This should increase more once the +IOD gets going. Per Eric Webb, the record ++PMM is acting as a +PDO

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This should increase more once the +IOD gets going. Per Eric Webb, the record ++PMM is acting as a +PDO

The thing to watch for in July is how much the warm pool near Japan driving the -PDO interacts with the +PMM.

The models runs in late June will give us some clues.

Could be another overlapping pattern with some Nino-like and Niña-like influences to 500 mb pattern for North America.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'll tell you, even if it's warm, I welcome a more active pattern with the El Nino...man, I am so sick of this drought the past few years. Even last winter was dry...there was only decent snow because it was so cold...precip was below average and there weren't many coastals.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, raindancewx said:

For anyone wondering - June is a pretty canonical -PNA pattern so far. Not PDO or ENSO driven. Despite the rumor that +PNA = +ENSO, it's never really been true in the Summer. CPC has the PNA as so weak in the Summer that is just has -- for PNA correlations to ENSO - not 0, not -0.87 or +0.33 actual blanks.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/table/corr.table_jun.txt

-PNA June = Cold NW, Hot SW. Green on the lower map is positive correlation (-PNA = cold, +PNA = warm) while blues are opposite correlation (-PNA = warm, +PNA = cold).

You can see the neutral spot over the Southeast shows up as well.

Definitely been a hot month out here...only recently shifted more temperate. 

[FPizz]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll tell you, even if it's warm, I welcome a more active pattern with the El Nino...man, I am so sick of this drought the past few years. Even last winter was dry...there was only decent snow because it was so cold...precip was below average and there weren't many coastals.

Yes, we definitely maximized the precip we received in the form of snow/ice.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

CANSIPS clearly has a Modoki look just viewing H5 next winter...don't have to look at SSTs. CFS has a more east-based look. My guess is it will look more like the CFS in the seasonal mean given how strong the event is going to be, but I could certainly see a stretch from latter January into February looking like the CANSIPS. I suspect we won't see a wall-to-wall furnace, although I'm sure Bluewave and the climate changer will be quoting tweets declaring it the warmest winter on record across the CONUS.

[bluewave]

49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll tell you, even if it's warm, I welcome a more active pattern with the El Nino...man, I am so sick of this drought the past few years. Even last winter was dry...there was only decent snow because it was so cold...precip was below average and there weren't many coastals.

You needed to be further south than Boston to really cash in relative to the means. 

The NY Metro area had the snowy clippers in December. With the benchmark snowstorm track returning from late January to late February.

But overall we got a boost from the cold and higher ratio fluff as the drought that developed in the fall of 2024 persists.

 

[snowman19]

[forkyfork]

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You needed to be further south than Boston to really cash in relative to the means. 

The NY Metro area had the snowy clippers in December. With the benchmark snowstorm track returning from late January to late February.

But overall we got a boost from the cold and higher ratio fluff as the drought that developed in the fall of 2024 persists.

 

I'm not talking about winning the relative to the mean trophy...it was my first season that wasn't 10" or more below average snowfall since 2017-2018. I'll take it and run.

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not talking about winning the relative to the mean trophy...it was my first season that wasn't 10" or more below average snowfall since 2017-2018. I'll take it and run.

At least you live far enough north where even a -10 or lower season would yield more actual snowfall than an average season from NYC to Philly. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

At least you live far enough north where even a -10 or lower season would yield more actual snowfall than an average season from NYC to Philly. 

Yea, I haven't seen under 30" since 2011-2012.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Subsurface continues to look really healthy. TAO/Triton will probably pop >+8c in the next few days. 

[snowman19]

 

Region 1+2 pushing over +3C

Yet another new WWB projected

 

 

[bluewave]

Forcing extending back to the WPAC warm pool as we approach early July may result in more Niña-like elements than we typically see with super El Niños continuing. This has been the case during the spring into summer so far with the record 30 C warm pool.  So we can see overlapping influences continue with the North American pattern.
 

 

 

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Forcing extending back to the WPAC warm pool as we approach early July may result in more Niña-like elements than we typically see with super El Niños continuing. This has been the case during the spring into summer so far with the record 30 C warm pool.  So we can see overlapping influences continue with the North American pattern.
 

 

 

So far this is preventing us from having a cooler summer. The summers of 1997, 1982, 1972 were well below normal here. We will see if this competing forcing will continue into the fall.

[snowman19]

14 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

So far this is preventing us from having a cooler summer. The summers of 1997, 1982, 1972 were well below normal here. We will see if this competing forcing will continue into the fall.

I don’t think it will. Just posted about it, but we have yet another very strong WWB forecasted for the end of this month. That will initiate another DWKW. I think these WWBs end up pushing the entire equatorial WPAC/Indo warm pool east. The new EURO Copernicus multi-model run has the 30C isotherm pushing all the way east to 140W by November

[GaWx]

On 6/12/2026 at 8:38 PM, GaWx said:

 Today’s -29 is the 33rd straight day with a sub -5 SOI. Tomorrow will make 34. That’s pretty historic because that will make it the 3rd longest sub -5 streak on record back to 1991! The only two longer ones were in 1997-8 and they were extremely long: 51 and 42 days, respectively.

 The beauty of the SOI is that it doesn’t appear to be strongly affected by CC. Thus it doesn’t need a RONI-like adjustment to remain a good indicator of ENSO strength.

The sub -5 SOI streak ended at 36 days. The only longer ones back to 1991 are the 51 and 42 day streaks of 1997-8.

[GaWx]

On 6/13/2026 at 2:03 PM, GaWx said:

 Models are suggesting -SOI will lessen. There’s chance -SOI will end 6/16. If so, could be 6 days of +SOI before goes back -.

 Guessing per models

6/14: -15 to -20

6/15: -6 to -13

6/16: +5 to -6

6/17: +8 to -5

6/18: +16 to +1

6/19: +21 to +4 (the high point)

6/20-4 should drop back down and get back to negative by 6/21-2

 

 

 

 

 
SOI daily: Prediction from 6/13………actual

6/14: -15 to -20…….-25

6/15: -6 to -13…….-13

6/16: +5 to -6………..-3

6/17: +8 to -5……….-1

6/18: +16 to +1……….+4

6/19: +21 to +4 (the high point)………?

6/20-4 should drop back down and get back to negative by 6/21-2………..?

[bluewave]

Really impressive to see the Nino 3.4 actual SSTs just -0.45C cooler than the November 2015 all-time record and its only June.