2026-2027 Super El Nino

[snowman19]

“Potentially Historic #ElNino in Making

Just Days After the American Weather Agency NOAA Declared the Arrival of El Nino, Today the Australian Weather Agency BOM has Declared the Event.

According to BOM, Almost Half of the Models now indicate that this Event would be among the Strongest Ever in the Recorded History

Some Notable Record Already Smashed by the Present Evolving El Nino are mentioned below-

1) The Traditional Nino 3.4 Index (Primary El Nino Monitoring Region) is now at +1.45c.
This is the Highest Ever Temperature Achieved at this Stage of an Evolving El Nino and Beats all Previous Super El Nino Events)

2) This is Fastest Ever Flip from a Mature La Nina State Early in the Year to Almost a High End Moderate El Nino within a Span of just 6 Months”

[snowman19]

And the new WWB generated DWKW has begun to make its trek eastward with more warming to follow….

[bluewave]

On 6/14/2026 at 8:12 AM, snowman19 said:

@csnavywx Brought up the off-equator WWBs a couple of weeks ago: 

“We ain't getting a CP or "basin wide" event. Too much off-equator WWB activity, which focuses WWV onto the equator via Eckman transport and causes EKWs to break and surface later. If you want a CP/basin wide or w/e, you def want your bursts narrowly focused with some trade wind resistance like we had in the '99-'22 era. There was arguably a bit of that left in the '23/'24 event but we've had no issues killing off the trades, even well away from the equator. This is *much closer* to the '72-'98 environment in that respect.

I can't be the only one who remembers how tough it was to kill off the trades even in the '15/'16 event. It languished for a while in the summer because of it and we had two false starts ('12 and '14) before that one took off. We are miles away from that.”

We are going to need a new classification system for this one. Maybe something like a super east to west basin event to reflect how spread out the record warmth is. 

Currently getting near to record breaking SSTs for the week of June 10th for developing El Niños using the traditional ONI from 1+2 all the way over to Nino 4.

1997-1998 was the previous record holder for east based events. 2015-2016 was the leader for Nino 3.4 and 4. 2023-2024 tied 2015-2016 in Nino 4. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/

June 10th

10JUN2026     26.1 2.7     28.3 1.6     29.2 1.5     30.1 1.3

07JUN2023     26.1 2.6     28.0 1.2     28.7 0.9     29.5 0.7

10JUN2015     25.5 2.0     27.8 1.2     28.7 0.9     29.8 0.9

11JUN1997     26.1 2.8     27.8 1.1     28.4 0.7     28.9 0.1
 

At peak strength all-time Nino region warmest SSTs bolded with ties

29NOV2023     24.2 2.1     27.2 2.0     28.7 2.0     30.3 1.7 

18NOV2015     23.8 2.0     28.0 2.9     29.8 3.0     30.3 1.7

26NOV1997     25.8 3.7     28.4 3.3     28.9 2.2     29.3 0.7
 03DEC1997     26.2 3.9     28.2 3.1     28.8 2.1     29.2 0.6

 

 

[snowman19]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We are going to need a new classification system for this one. Maybe something like a super east to west basin event to reflect how spread out the record warmth is. 

Currently getting near to record breaking SSTs for the week of June 10th for developing El Niños using the traditional ONI from 1+2 all the way over to Nino 4.

1997-1998 was the previous record holder for east based events. 2015-2016 was the leader for Nino 3.4 and 4. 2023-2024 tied 2015-2016 in Nino 4. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/

June 10th

10JUN2026     26.1 2.7     28.3 1.6     29.2 1.5     30.1 1.3

07JUN2023     26.1 2.6     28.0 1.2     28.7 0.9     29.5 0.7

10JUN2015     25.5 2.0     27.8 1.2     28.7 0.9     29.8 0.9

11JUN1997     26.1 2.8     27.8 1.1     28.4 0.7     28.9 0.1
 

At peak strength all-time Nino region warmest SSTs bolded with ties

29NOV2023     24.2 2.1     27.2 2.0     28.7 2.0     30.3 1.7 

18NOV2015     23.8 2.0     28.0 2.9     29.8 3.0     30.3 1.7

26NOV1997     25.8 3.7     28.4 3.3     28.9 2.2     29.3 0.7
 03DEC1997     26.2 3.9     28.2 3.1     28.8 2.1     29.2 0.6

 

 

IMO, this one is headed for the history books. I think it ends up as the strongest El Nino event on record

[Typhoon Tip]

Seemin' like y'all tryin to will a super phat dope ass nuclear nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Moving a little more exponential the last few days

Subsurface looks really healthy right now

Let's see if the seasonal decadal trend of a ridge in the Rockies/SW gets suppressed this July

[Maestrobjwa]

5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Seemin' like y'all tryin to will a super phat dope ass nuclear nino

Some warmnistas would love nothing more because it would equal the year without a winter, lol

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Some would love nothing more because it would equal the year without a winter, lol

More like I want the W pac warm pool to completely shift east so we can have better synoptic snow the following winters. A mid +2c super nino that probably ends up with a warm winter anyway won’t do the job. Might as well go for the full historic, make this the sacrificial lamb and see if we can get good patterns the years after

[raindancewx]

For anyone wondering - June is a pretty canonical -PNA pattern so far. Not PDO or ENSO driven. Despite the rumor that +PNA = +ENSO, it's never really been true in the Summer. CPC has the PNA as so weak in the Summer that is just has -- for PNA correlations to ENSO - not 0, not -0.87 or +0.33 actual blanks.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/table/corr.table_jun.txt

-PNA June = Cold NW, Hot SW. Green on the lower map is positive correlation (-PNA = cold, +PNA = warm) while blues are opposite correlation (-PNA = warm, +PNA = cold).

You can see the neutral spot over the Southeast shows up as well.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^I can never get U of Del Air Temp working on the correlation composite. Is there a secret to it? 

June will likely be the 5th straight month of -PNA (CPC). I've found that the correlation roll forwards are weak for what happens later in the year, surprisingly. 

[forkyfork]

7 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Seemin' like y'all tryin to will a super phat dope ass nuclear nino

our willpower is working

[snowman19]

And this is quite the WWB….

[PhiEaglesfan712]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

Get ready for 30C minimums in November and December.

[bluewave]

19 hours ago, snowman19 said:

IMO, this one is headed for the history books. I think it ends up as the strongest El Nino event on record

The 500 mb pattern is beginning to look more Nino-like during the second half of June. Finally getting the familiar ridge just west of  British Columbia. This is allowing the typical June El Niño trough to form near the Great Lakes.
 

 

 

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The 500 mb pattern is beginning to look more Nino-like during the second half of June. Finally getting the familiar ridge just west of  British Columbia. This is allowing the typical June El Niño trough to form near the Great Lakes.
 

 

 

This should increase more once the +IOD gets going. Per Eric Webb, the record ++PMM is acting as a +PDO

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This should increase more once the +IOD gets going. Per Eric Webb, the record ++PMM is acting as a +PDO

The thing to watch for in July is how much the warm pool near Japan driving the -PDO interacts with the +PMM.

The models runs in late June will give us some clues.

Could be another overlapping pattern with some Nino-like and Niña-like influences to 500 mb pattern for North America.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'll tell you, even if it's warm, I welcome a more active pattern with the El Nino...man, I am so sick of this drought the past few years. Even last winter was dry...there was only decent snow because it was so cold...precip was below average and there weren't many coastals.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, raindancewx said:

For anyone wondering - June is a pretty canonical -PNA pattern so far. Not PDO or ENSO driven. Despite the rumor that +PNA = +ENSO, it's never really been true in the Summer. CPC has the PNA as so weak in the Summer that is just has -- for PNA correlations to ENSO - not 0, not -0.87 or +0.33 actual blanks.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/table/corr.table_jun.txt

-PNA June = Cold NW, Hot SW. Green on the lower map is positive correlation (-PNA = cold, +PNA = warm) while blues are opposite correlation (-PNA = warm, +PNA = cold).

You can see the neutral spot over the Southeast shows up as well.

Definitely been a hot month out here...only recently shifted more temperate. 

[FPizz]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll tell you, even if it's warm, I welcome a more active pattern with the El Nino...man, I am so sick of this drought the past few years. Even last winter was dry...there was only decent snow because it was so cold...precip was below average and there weren't many coastals.

Yes, we definitely maximized the precip we received in the form of snow/ice.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

CANSIPS clearly has a Modoki look just viewing H5 next winter...don't have to look at SSTs. CFS has a more east-based look. My guess is it will look more like the CFS in the seasonal mean given how strong the event is going to be, but I could certainly see a stretch from latter January into February looking like the CANSIPS. I suspect we won't see a wall-to-wall furnace, although I'm sure Bluewave and the climate changer will be quoting tweets declaring it the warmest winter on record across the CONUS.

[bluewave]

49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll tell you, even if it's warm, I welcome a more active pattern with the El Nino...man, I am so sick of this drought the past few years. Even last winter was dry...there was only decent snow because it was so cold...precip was below average and there weren't many coastals.

You needed to be further south than Boston to really cash in relative to the means. 

The NY Metro area had the snowy clippers in December. With the benchmark snowstorm track returning from late January to late February.

But overall we got a boost from the cold and higher ratio fluff as the drought that developed in the fall of 2024 persists.

 

[snowman19]

[forkyfork]

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You needed to be further south than Boston to really cash in relative to the means. 

The NY Metro area had the snowy clippers in December. With the benchmark snowstorm track returning from late January to late February.

But overall we got a boost from the cold and higher ratio fluff as the drought that developed in the fall of 2024 persists.

 

I'm not talking about winning the relative to the mean trophy...it was my first season that wasn't 10" or more below average snowfall since 2017-2018. I'll take it and run.

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not talking about winning the relative to the mean trophy...it was my first season that wasn't 10" or more below average snowfall since 2017-2018. I'll take it and run.

At least you live far enough north where even a -10 or lower season would yield more actual snowfall than an average season from NYC to Philly. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

At least you live far enough north where even a -10 or lower season would yield more actual snowfall than an average season from NYC to Philly. 

Yea, I haven't seen under 30" since 2011-2012.