2026-2027 Super El Nino

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Yea, a  -5 departure for the winter in a place like Atlanta  and southern apps probably implies some much below normal periods in there that if timed up with a nino-style stj can give them their freak snows.   Meanwhile, during those same periods we're cold but watching the juice slide under us.     Likewise, when a place like Columbus or Detroit sees a +5 departure for the winter in a nino, chances are that the cold periods are dry and the warm is wet.     

But like i mentioned in an earlier post, super ninos can definitely pack a surprise or two.

 

Nice to hear from you Buckeye. 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, buckeye said:

Yea, a  -5 departure for the winter in a place like Atlanta  and southern apps probably implies some much below normal periods in there that if timed up with a nino-style stj can give them their freak snows.   Meanwhile, during those same periods we're cold but watching the juice slide under us.     Likewise, when a place like Columbus or Detroit sees a +5 departure for the winter in a nino, chances are that the cold periods are dry and the warm is wet.     

But like i mentioned in an earlier post, super ninos can definitely pack a surprise or two.

 

The scenario you describe (dry during the cold periods) was the big problem in 1982-83 here. I haven't looked up Colombus but in Detroit, still plenty of snow chances. Ironically in 1997-98 Feb was the really bad month here (the rest of winter was ok, including a snowy mid nov to mid dec) but Cincinnati got buried in Feb. All varies. 2015-16 finished just a bit below avg snow wise at Detroit but above avg snow a bit further north near @roardog.

[so_whats_happening]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Can someone say +AO? (For the 3rd warm season in a row, since the Solar Max)

 

[mitchnick]

[bluewave]

The latest June update from the ECMWF has the ONI plumes Nino 3.4 average around +3.6 and the RONI near +3.0.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The latest June update from the ECMWF has the ONI plumes Nino 3.4 average around +3.6 and the RONI near +3.0.

@LakePaste25 @donsutherland1 Not only does it show the strongest El Niño in history, it shows it being severely east-based/East Pacific like 1997 was. And a new downwelling Kelvin wave has begun to form in response to the big WWB we are seeing:


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

Euro seasonal only goes out thru December, but looks pretty similar to Cfs2 vs Cansips weather-wise. Very wet along the east coast. I'll take it with my inland location at 600'asl. 

[snowman19]

Here comes the constructive interference boost from a budding +IOD

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@LakePaste25 @donsutherland1 Not only does it show the strongest El Niño in history, it shows it being severely east-based/East Pacific like 1997 was. And a new downwelling Kelvin wave has begun to form in response to the big WWB we are seeing:


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Very impressive progression of model forecasts over the last several months. Now we are getting past the spring predictability barrier. So this most recent forecast update incorporates the big increase in upper ocean heat and continuing WWBs.

 

[LakePaste25]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very impressive progression of model forecasts over the last several months. Now we are getting past the spring forecast barrier. So this most recent forecast update incorporates the big increase in upper ocean heat and continuing WWBs.

 

We can probably assume that the W pac warm pool will finally slosh east if those model output verify. You don’t get a +4C ONI Nino without it doing so. 

[csnavywx]

Sitting near/at record highs now.

[csnavywx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Very impressive progression of model forecasts over the last several months. Now we are getting past the spring forecast barrier. So this most recent forecast update incorporates the big increase in upper ocean heat and continuing WWBs.

 

Let this be a lesson that the state and path dependency are more important than generally given credit for. Arguments about the spring barrier tended to discount this by default and also discount that these models have to parameterize certain calculations that end up biasing them *cold* on big honking tail events like this.

[csnavywx]

What happens when you get 1997 and 1972-like wind stress patterns with 2026 OHC/SSTs? We're about to find out.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@LakePaste25 @donsutherland1 Not only does it show the strongest El Niño in history, it shows it being severely east-based/East Pacific like 1997 was. And a new downwelling Kelvin wave has begun to form in response to the big WWB we are seeing:


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Regarding 1+2 less 3.4 per the table link below, 1982-3 fall/winter monthly peak was +1.1. This is based on Nov, which had 1+2 at +3.0 vs 3.4’s +1.9. 1997-8 peak differential was way up at +2.1 (also in Nov)! This is based on 1+2’s +4.5 vs 3.4’s +2.4. But the Euro per Ben’s quoted charts above has a mere only ~+0.7 for 2026-7’s peak monthly 1+2 less 3.4, which is in Sept with 1+2 then ~+3.8 vs 3.4’s ~+3.1! 

  So, the Euro is actually forecasting 26-7 to have a somewhat weaker 1+2 less 3.4 than 82-3 and MUCH weaker than 97-8. So per this measure, it’s forecasting a less E based 26-7 than 82-2 and MUCH less E based than 97-8.

 

Monthly ERSST:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

 

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 But it’s less E based than 82-3 and much less E based than 97-8 as I just showed. Since you’ve been emphasizing how much E based 26-7 is looking, what do you think about this?

[snowman19]

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 But it’s less E based than 82-3 and much less E based than 97-8 as I just showed. Since you’ve been emphasizing how much E based 26-7 is looking, what do you think about this?

It’s still going to be east-based

Edit: @GaWx By “severely” I mean warmest anomalies centered in region 1+2

 

 

 

 

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s still going to be east-based

 

 

 

 

Agreed. I didn’t say 26-7 wasn’t looking E based. I’m saying it doesn’t look as E based as 1982-3 and not anywhere close to (not even in the ballpark) as E based as 1997-8.

 You posted earlier today this:

“Not only does it show the strongest El Niño in history, it shows it being severely east-based/East Pacific like 1997 was.”

 This (“severely east-based/EP like 1997”) is not true when you compare the regions, which is how E based/C based/Modoki are defined.

 

[forkyfork]

i've skimmed through the first 10ish pages of this thread and a lot of you should be embarrassed 

[SnowGoose69]

21 hours ago, GaWx said:

Winter storms in the South outside of the mountains are for the most part somewhat freaky events. Thus, due to the low frequency, our snowiest or iciest winters are often from mainly just one major (or series of) winter storms at most. Examples: late Jan of 1940, Feb of 1952, mid Feb of 1958, 12/31/1963, 2/9-10/1973, 3/1-2/1980, 3/24/1983, late Jan of 1987, 1/7-8/1988, mid Jan of 1992, the ice storm of late Jan 2005, and Dec of 2018. All of these were during El Niño and these were enough to make them wintry.

 So, El Nino’s on average produce for wintry precip despite often being mainly from just one storm on the right track (usually Gulf to off SE Coast) at the right time (when cold enough air to the N/NW being tapped into enough).

There is no question there is some type of correlation too, at least for places like AL/GA/MS/SC for the frequency to be higher during the cold AMO periods.  That does not seem to be as much a factor for TN/NC/AR/OK/TX.  But there is a higher peak, even in El Nino winters for those other 4 states in the 70s/80s and even during the more neutral or weaker warmer AMO period of the 40s/50s.  I don't know if that is purely that colder outbreaks are more common then or perhaps/phasing amplified systems that cut north of them are less likely.  

[snowman19]

[FPizz]

20 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i've skimmed through the first 10ish pages of this thread and a lot of you should be embarrassed 

Same for all the X posts that were wrong.  You better go tell everyone!

[WX-PA]

Just now, WX-PA said:

Not bad but that storm track could mean lots of rain..doubt there is much cold air with the Super Nino

[donsutherland1]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@LakePaste25 @donsutherland1 Not only does it show the strongest El Niño in history, it shows it being severely east-based/East Pacific like 1997 was. And a new downwelling Kelvin wave has begun to form in response to the big WWB we are seeing:


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes. It's looking like a monster east-based El Niño event.

[buckeye]

20 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Nice to hear from you Buckeye. 

back at ya, sometimes i miss the old days when subs based on geography weren't a thing.   

...sometimes

[GaWx]

45 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. It's looking like a monster east-based El Niño event.

 Indeed, Don, the Euro’s June prog has the strongest (“monster” as you said) on record. And I agree it’s looking E based. But it’s not currently looking nearly as E based as 97-8 based on peak fall/winter differences between 1+2 and 3.4/4 per the latest Euro. And it’s not even looking as E based as 1982-3 per these same differences.

[csnavywx]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 

 Regarding 1+2 less 3.4 per the table link below, 1982-3 fall/winter monthly peak was +1.1. This is based on Nov, which had 1+2 at +3.0 vs 3.4’s +1.9. 1997-8 peak differential was way up at +2.1 (also in Nov)! This is based on 1+2’s +4.5 vs 3.4’s +2.4. But the Euro per Ben’s quoted charts above has a mere only ~+0.7 for 2026-7’s peak monthly 1+2 less 3.4, which is in Sept with 1+2 then ~+3.8 vs 3.4’s ~+3.1! 

  So, the Euro is actually forecasting 26-7 to have a somewhat weaker 1+2 less 3.4 than 82-3 and MUCH weaker than 97-8. So per this measure, it’s forecasting a less E based 26-7 than 82-2 and MUCH less E based than 97-8.

 

Monthly ERSST:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

 

We ain't getting a CP or "basin wide" event. Too much off-equator WWB activity, which focuses WWV onto the equator via Eckman transport and causes EKWs to break and surface later. If you want a CP/basin wide or w/e, you def want your bursts narrowly focused with some trade wind resistance like we had in the '99-'22 era. There was arguably a bit of that left in the '23/'24 event but we've had no issues killing off the trades, even well away from the equator. This is *much closer* to the '72-'98 environment in that respect.

I can't be the only one who remembers how tough it was to kill off the trades even in the '15/'16 event. It languished for a while in the summer because of it and we had two false starts ('12 and '14) before that one took off. We are miles away from that.

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

We can probably assume that the W pac warm pool will finally slosh east if those model output verify. You don’t get a +4C ONI Nino without it doing so. 

The core of the 30C+ SSTs will probably shift over closer to MJO 7 and Nino 4 as the current forecast would surpass even 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 in those locations.

The Euro has Nino 4 exceeding +2.0 which would be a first if it verifies. The previous Nino 4 record was 30.21C and +1.51 back in November 2023.

Perhaps some areas could approach +31.0C. Even Nino 3.4 could get close to +30.0 C like in 2015-2016.

The Euro has the warm pool east of Japan continuing. The IOD peaks in October and the SSTs near the Maritime Continent begin to rebound by December.  

So an historic and extensive area of extreme SSTs from the WPAC into the ENSO regions being forecast.
 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

2015  11   23.93    2.28   27.95    2.84   30.13    1.44

2023  11   23.73    2.07   27.20    2.10   30.21    1.51 

 

 

[LakePaste25]

Latest Euro seasonal gets the enhanced coastal precipitation going as early as September.

 

[GaWx]

Wow! The latest update for OISST (June 4th) has a massive warming for one day: 0.189C! That’s the strongest one day warming since way back on March 6th! The last 4 days have warmed a hair over 0.4C or a whopping 0.1C/day! That’s the fastest 4 day warming on this entire chart, even exceeding the ~0.36C of April 11th-15th. See far right side of the image below. The strong -SOI is doing its magic on its typically couple of week delayed basis vs when the strong negative string started.

 This means the 6/5/26 RONI equivalent daily is already up to the +0.8 to +0.9 range!

 Implications for Monday’s weekly 3.4 update: at the very least an increase of 0.2C to 0.7C relative 3.4. There’s a good shot at an increase of 0.3 to 0.8 relative 3.4 if this continues to rise on the next 2 days’ updates:

Check out today’s and last 4 days’ warming!