40/70 Benchmark Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 4 hours ago, LakePaste25 said: Yeah. I fully believe mostly warm temps and strong or super. I see the difference between basin wide vs EP as “do we get a couple of more cold intrusions on the back side of winter to try to get something to phase with that supercharged southern stream, or is it extremely limited like 97-98?” It’s really not a question that can answered by even the most skilled mets this early on IMO. Even 1997-1998 had a great event just before XMAS up here...only one that had literally nothing was 1972...you could say 2015, but that season had the January blizzard, it just skirted south of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 30 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Yeah, that's the feeling I'm getting. Models I think are crazy too because they are so used to cold ENSO. Nothing terribly impressive at this time, imo. re: the pattern, SOI and all. Subsurface is warm, but that may take a while to surface. Yea, the El Niño hype is unreal...and it has nothing to do with me having an aversion to a warm winter because I think that's likely, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 FWIW, the April dynamical mean came in at 2.06 for the ONI. This is significantly ahead of 2023 and 2015 at the same point. 2023 was at 1.54 and 2.10 verified. April 2015 was at 1.30 and 2.80 verified. So for the two most recent El Niños reaching an ONI of 2.0 or greater, the spring predictability barrier resulted in too weak a forecast. https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/ April 2026 Average, Dynamical models 0.764 1.120 1.438 1.709 1.763 1.951 2.060 1.856 1.810 April 2023 Average, Dynamical models 0.460 0.785 1.098 1.328 1.406 1.481 1.547 1.473 1.386 April 2015 Average, dynamical models 0.8 1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Even 1997-1998 had a great event just before XMAS up here...only one that had literally nothing was 1972...you could say 2015, but that season had the January blizzard, it just skirted south of me. All super ninos have featured below normal snowfall here - a 15-16 outcome vs 97-98 doesn’t make a difference for me as they both had roughly 60-80” on the season. There will always be brief cold shots on the backside of winter and sometimes even very short ones in december if we’re lucky, although december is typically the most hostile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 23 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said: All super ninos have featured below normal snowfall here - a 15-16 outcome vs 97-98 doesn’t make a difference for me as they both had roughly 60-80” on the season. There will always be brief cold shots on the backside of winter and sometimes even very short ones in december if we’re lucky, although december is typically the most hostile. In particular, +QBO/El Nino (regardless of strength) Decembers are a torch in the east. It’s an extremely strong signal over the last 46 years in fact….every single one of them since 1980 were torches without any exceptions. @Stormchaserchuck1 pointed that out a month ago and DT also did a write up on it several years back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: In particular, +QBO/El Nino (regardless of strength) Decembers are a torch in the east. It’s an extremely strong signal over the last 46 years in fact….every single one of them since 1980 were torches without any exceptions. @Stormchaserchuck1 pointed that out a month ago and DT also did a write up on it several years back If it is not going to snow in December then I hope we get a December 2015 type outcome so I can enjoy the nice weather outdoors. December 2023 was not ideal, because it was still hostile for snow but it was in the 30s most days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 13 hours ago, roardog said: I think it’s because the models are showing ridiculous high outcomes. It might end up being a super, who knows but it’s most likely not going to end up as strong as some of the ridiculous output of some of these models. I’m not saying this is the case with any of the twitter mets that snowman is posting but a lot of them don’t follow this stuff/care as much as we do and just check the models every so often without actually diving into it like many posters here do. I recall Snowman posting the BOMM at +3-3.25C in 2023 and only broke +2C for 1 trimonthly. Location of the best forcing will be what makes or breaks winter in the east this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 4 hours ago, LakePaste25 said: All super ninos have featured below normal snowfall here - a 15-16 outcome vs 97-98 doesn’t make a difference for me as they both had roughly 60-80” on the season. There will always be brief cold shots on the backside of winter and sometimes even very short ones in december if we’re lucky, although december is typically the most hostile. Yea, here, as well...except for 1982, which was around normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 46 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I recall Snowman posting the BOMM at +3-3.25C in 2023 and only broke +2C for 1 trimonthly. Location of the best forcing will be what makes or breaks winter in the east this year. Gotta be careful, though....2023 mimicked modoki forcing, but it was because the west Pacific was so warm, so it actually created a MC influence...which was wretched. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said: If it is not going to snow in December then I hope we get a December 2015 type outcome so I can enjoy the nice weather outdoors. December 2023 was not ideal, because it was still hostile for snow but it was in the 30s most days. December 2023 wasn't in the 30s most days. It rained a lot, but it was a really warm December. It was either the 2nd or 3rd warmest December (along with 2021), both behind 2015. I think it was December 2022 that was in the 30s most days but hostile for snow, although December 2024 could fit that profile as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Gotta be careful, though....2023 mimicked modoki forcing, but it was because the west Pacific was so warm, so it actually created a MC influence...which was wretched. But that also had the -PDO from hell (which I think you're referring to) that just killed any chance. It could happen again, but odds don't favor that happening again imho. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Gotta be careful, though....2023 mimicked modoki forcing, but it was because the west Pacific was so warm, so it actually created a MC influence...which was wretched. Related to what you’re saying: As JB has emphasized, the models in 2023 that had the beautiful E US trough/Aleutian low that some of us here were repeatedly posting and very excited about were also forecasting the typical BN SSTs around Australia. Had it actually been relatively cold around Australia, JB believes that the E US would have had a cold winter. But alas, it turned out warm around Australia, atypical of El Niño. Is 2026 going to end up colder around Australia like JB expects? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 lots of denial itt 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 21 Author Share Posted April 21 Western ENSO subsurface continues to strengthen, making me think 57-58, 65-66, 86-87, 91-92, and 15-16 could be top analogs. >+4c on TAO/Triton at 160E, -150m 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 17 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Western ENSO subsurface continues to strengthen, making me think 57-58, 65-66, 86-87, 91-92, and 15-16 could be top analogs. >+4c on TAO/Triton at 160E, -150m That’s from the massive DWKW Paul Roundy and Eric Webb talked about over the weekend. It’s going to advect and slosh east through Ekman pumping just like they all do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 21 Author Share Posted April 21 Let's see if it makes it all the way to Nino 1+2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 Models still showing a robust +IOD developing over the coming months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 21 Author Share Posted April 21 Coming precip patterns are pre-El Nino Apr-May precip before later-in-the-year Nino 3.4 El Nino's: 6-14 day CPC forecast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 13 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Indeed, the CFSv2 gets Nino 3 to just above +3.0 in Nov and Dec for non-relative anomalies: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 21 Author Share Posted April 21 I think models are overdoing it -- you want the SOI to be lower, but it never got strong in 2023 so it may still be a lagging indicator, which it has been for the last 3 years. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 What’s the deal with all this extreme warmth in Nino 4 during recent El Niños? When you think of the classic strong/super Nino you always think of Nino 4 not being too warm or maybe even below normal. Nino 4 is up to +1 already according to Cyclonicwx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 21 Author Share Posted April 21 23 minutes ago, roardog said: What’s the deal with all this extreme warmth in Nino 4 during recent El Niños? When you think of the classic strong/super Nino you always think of Nino 4 not being too warm or maybe even below normal. Nino 4 is up to +1 already according to Cyclonicwx. Bluewave has posted graphs of a linear warming trend in Nino 4, 1950-present. It's much more of a straight line than other ENSO regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 16 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Western ENSO subsurface continues to strengthen, making me think 57-58, 65-66, 86-87, 91-92, and 15-16 could be top analogs. >+4c on TAO/Triton at 160E, -150m Exactly the type of analogs I was speculating on. 2002 is similar, but obviously weaker. I think the issue will be the NAO...1991-1992 was awful because it was the only strongly positive NAO/weakly -PDO, which we may very well have this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 This illustrates how much warmer the surrounding tropical areas were during 2023-4, which means a RONI significantly cooler than ONI due to the lowered contrast: Look at the much larger contrast in 1982-3: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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