snowman19 Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 12 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Webb exhibits at times a tone that borders on being over the top to get attention. “Hilariously strong”? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 33 minutes ago, GaWx said: Webb exhibits at times a tone that borders on being over the top to get attention. “Hilariously strong”? The usual suspects are all trying to outdo one another for clicks. Nobody knows with certainty what ssta will look like after the wwb, which is what counts, along with what comes after. Enso predictions have a way of humbling the honest forecasters imho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 38 minutes ago, GaWx said: Webb exhibits at times a tone that borders on being over the top to get attention. “Hilariously strong”? Yea, need to take him with a grain of salt...I have noticed that you can really treat folks in the met community like models. They all have something to offer, but you are best suited to become familiar with their biases and tendencies in order to know how to screen their feedback and view them through the proper lens. Webb never simply offers an opinion or a take...it's always an OPINION or a TAKE. Perfect example of what social media does to an otherwise fine met. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: Cfs2 has really responded to its December forecast over the last week. Top link is from 18z March 30th and bottom link 18z April 6. January likewise if you scroll forward. Precip is a wowzer too both months. Temps a little AN as expected, but in January it won't matter! https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon®ion=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026033018&fh=9 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon®ion=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026040618&fh=8 I'll gladly take somewhat above normal temps to get copious precip. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 That CFS does not have any trouble whatsoever popping a SE trough....2023 that is not. I get the time range, but that is every bit as valid as these 3.0 El Nino delusions. I am willing to bet that if the CFS were right, we see that prism between the RONI and ONI narrow over the course of the year, eventually meeting roughly midway between 1 and 2 by next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 We are due to a snowier El Nino in the NE....2015, 2018 and 2023 all sucked. I can't find an instance of four consecutive in that regard, although I'm sure @bluewave can scan through the Era data base and find one from the 1700s. 1987 was a pretty normal winter. 1991, 1994 and 1997 all sucked...then we had 2002. 1951 and 1953 were poor...then came 1957. There is value in anecdotal analysis, as long as it's buttressed with more empirical research. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 9 hours ago, GaWx said: Being that the current OISST dailies suggest that RONI is likely ~-0.3 to -0.4, it is a very tall order to get the full April averaged RONI to rise all of the way to +0.6, which is what this BoM run has. We’ll see what the very strong WWB/TC triplets are able to do. The rate of April warming would probably have to be well beyond record highs to get April RONI up to +0.6. The daily RONIs may have to approach +1.5 by April 30th!! I don’t see that being realistic at all. I call BS on those hyper El Nino runs......I'm not sure why those shouldn't be getting the same weenies attached to them that @MJO812's day 10 blizzard maps do during the winter. I mean, tell me what the difference is....long range guidance displaying an either highly anomalous, or unprecedented occurence. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/04/a-powerhouse-el-nino-event-appears-to-be-brewing-for-2026-27/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 Yea, I'm not arguing that there isn't any support for it.....I'm just skeptical at this early juncture given the intensity of the event just three years ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I'm not arguing that there isn't any support for it.....I'm just skeptical at this early juncture given the intensity of the event just three years ago. Latest SSTA in 3.4 is +.2C as of 4/1. Gotta have a lot of things go right for those +2C tri-monthlies, though there is plenty of time if they do. In the meantime, the trades are progged to hold east of the dateline through the 15th-17th of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: Comparing this year to 4/1/15, 2015 was warmer in 3, 3.4 and 4. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for But after the pending wwb, there's nothing in site like it on the Cfs2 thru the end of June. I don't know about other models however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 14 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Comparing this year to 4/1/15, 2015 was warmer in 3, 3.4 and 4. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for But after the pending wwb, there's nothing in site like it on the Cfs2. I don't know about other models however. A super Nino really needs all ingredients to come together to achieve it. I suppose it might be a little easier these days with the abundance of warm water everywhere but it’s still not easy. I would think we would need WWB to continue after this strong one to get us to super later this year. If trades come back later this spring, I don’t think we get to super. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 1 hour ago, roardog said: A super Nino really needs all ingredients to come together to achieve it. I suppose it might be a little easier these days with the abundance of warm water everywhere but it’s still not easy. I would think we would need WWB to continue after this strong one to get us to super later this year. If trades come back later this spring, I don’t think we get to super. Yeah, 2015 was one that took several years to form. People were predicting el nino as early as 2012. Definitely by 2014, you just knew a super el nino was going to form when the ingredients came together. It didn't again in 2014, but in 2015 it did, after 3-4 years. It's no surprise the 2015-16 event was one of the strongest el ninos on record. All I know is that a super el nino is going to form at some point in the near future. It may not be this year, and even if the trades come back later this spring, it may just be delaying the inevitable until the following year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 8 Author Share Posted April 8 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: Comparing this year to 4/1/15, 2015 was warmer in 3, 3.4 and 4. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for But after the pending wwb, there's nothing in site like it on the Cfs2 thru the end of June. I don't know about other models however. Well yeah, we had an El Nino in 14-15. A better comparison would be years that were coming from Neutral or weak Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: This tweet is deceptive. I’m surprised the smart pro met. Ethan said this. Of course the SSTs are significantly warmer than 29 years ago due to GW. But you know that the measure of Nino strength isn’t SST but rather SSTa. Relative SSTa: 02APR1997 1.1 -0.3 0.1 1.1 01APR2026 0.6 -0.3 -0.2 0.3 So, per relative anomalies, not only is 2026 not warmer than 1997, it is 0.5 cooler in 1+2, 0.3 cooler in 3.4, and 0.8 cooler in 4! https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt @mitchnick 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Well yeah, we had an El Nino in 14-15. A better comparison would be years that were coming from Neutral or weak Nina 15/16 was the last strong Niño, which is why I used it. But your observation supports the idea that you need a lot of things to go right to get a strong Niño and a warm start helps a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Well yeah, we had an El Nino in 14-15. A better comparison would be years that were coming from Neutral or weak Nina That leaves us with 1972 and 1982 from the super group. (You already did 1997.) From the strong group, we have 1957, 1965, 1986, 2009, and 2023. 1987 (el nino already in progress, 1986 would be the year to use as I mentioned above) and 1991 (another high end warm neutral like 2015, plus had a major volcano) probably aren't good comparisons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 17 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I'm not arguing that there isn't any support for it.....I'm just skeptical at this early juncture given the intensity of the event just three years ago. We have plenty of time to watch this one develop. Remember, these ENSO plume forecasts are just basically repeater models. They extrapolate the current conditions going forward. They are correct when the actual conditions repeat. When changes occur they exhibit errors. So if these record WWBs continue, then we have a shot at what they are showing. All I can say is that the models did a great job on the plumes from April of 2023. We would probably need a wind reversal on the order of June 2014 to avoid a +2.0 or greater ONI outcome. Once we verify the June conditions then things will come into better focus. The big story in 2023-2024 was the models underestimating the Nino ridge and warmth along the Northern Tier and overestimating the Aleutian low and troughing in the South and East. So it will be interesting to see how things go with this event. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 On 4/8/2026 at 7:52 AM, bluewave said: We have plenty of time to watch this one develop. Remember, these ENSO plume forecasts are just basically repeater models. They extrapolate the current conditions going forward. They are correct when the actual conditions repeat. When changes occur they exhibit errors. So if these record WWBs continue, then we have a shot at what they are showing. All I can say is that the models did a great job on the plumes from April of 2023. We would probably need a wind reversal on the order of June 2014 to avoid a +2.0 or greater ONI outcome. Once we verify the June conditions then things will come into better focus. The big story in 2023-2024 was the models underestimating the Nino ridge and warmth along the Northern Tier and overestimating the Aleutian low and troughing in the South and East. So it will be interesting to see how things go with this event. Yes, this is why I am going to be keeping a close vigil on the RONI/ONI separation. I don't view the delta as a positive for winter enthusiasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 @Bluewave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 42 minutes ago, bluewave said: We have plenty of time to watch this one develop. Remember, these ENSO plume forecasts are just basically repeater models. They extrapolate the current conditions going forward. They are correct when the actual conditions repeat. When changes occur they exhibit errors. So if these record WWBs continue, then we have a shot at what they are showing. All I can say is that the models did a great job on the plumes from April of 2023. We would probably need a wind reversal on the order of June 2014 to avoid a +2.0 or greater ONI outcome. Once we verify the June conditions then things will come into better focus. The big story in 2023-2024 was the models underestimating the Nino ridge and warmth along the Northern Tier and overestimating the Aleutian low and troughing in the South and East. So it will be interesting to see how things go with this event. The 4/23 ONI fcasts: BoM much too warm and Euro/CFS/UK somewhat too warm. Actual JAS +1.37 1. BoM: +2.17 for JAS or 0.80 too warm 2. Euro: +1.57 for JAS or 0.20 too warm 3. CFSv2: +1.56 for JAS or 0.19 too warm 4. UKMET: +1.58 for JAS or 0.21 too warm OTOH, the avg of all 17 dynamicals was +1.33, which was almost perfect. ONI history: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt 4/23 ONI forecasts: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2023-April-quick-look/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 Nov: NMME is warmer than its prior run and much more E based than Cansips Modoki: Nov SSTa NMME latest run: Nov SSTa NMME prior run: Nov SSTa Cansips 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 On 4/6/2026 at 10:20 AM, A-L-E-K said: time 2 torch 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 9 Author Share Posted April 9 -17 SOI today, finally pushing the 30-day negative 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 6 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: -17 SOI today, finally pushing the 30-day negative Yes, just saw the 30 day -SOI update. You were right about the subsurface warmth last week. The only year anywhere close to this one is 1997 and we have that beat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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