2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Weve always discussed the weather in the ENSO threads. Im really going out on a limb here, but I have a feeling the Cansips not caving from its cold idea is what prompted that suggestion. 

It didn't cave last year or the year before either fwiw, and did pretty well with the BN temps forecasts.

[LakePaste25]

26 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It didn't cave last year or the year before either fwiw, and did pretty well with the BN temps forecasts.

I remember it doing pretty poorly early on before the 23-24 nino. If i remember it had a ‘09-‘10 redux with the canadian and -nao block and broad mid latitude troughing in CONUS. 

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Actually, this post by Jeff B. is somewhat misleading imho as a monthly RONI peak of +2.7C wouldn’t be any stronger than 1982. Yes, an ONI monthly peak of +3.3C would by far be the strongest as he said. But RONI is more representative of the El Niño surge, itself, divorced from the CC contribution.

It’s still notable that it could end up the warmest SST’s on record in that region. Maybe “strongest” is not the right word in terms of sensible atmospheric forcing. 

[brooklynwx99]

these events always begin very EP, that's nothing new. not much support on a persistent EP event... we should see things move basin-wide by the time winter rolls around. looks pretty 2015-16 esque in that regard, not 1997-98

[brooklynwx99]

also, let's be real, the only reason why this thread gets 95% of the traffic it does is because of the impact on the following winter, which carries the largest correlation to ENSO, anyway. i doubt anybody cares about the SW monsoon (aside from Raindance) or eastern Pacific algal blooms

[TheClimateChanger]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Actually, this post by Jeff B. is somewhat misleading imho as a monthly RONI peak of +2.7C wouldn’t be any stronger than 1982. Yes, an ONI monthly peak of +3.3C would by far be the strongest as he said. But RONI is more representative of the El Niño surge, itself, divorced from the CC contribution.

A +2.7°C RONI peak may be comparable to 1982 in relative ENSO strength, but a +3.3°C ONI peak would still be physically meaningful because it reflects the actual SST anomaly humans, ecosystems, and the atmosphere experience. ONI already uses a rolling 30-year climatology updated every five years. So why is RONI still ~0.6°C lower? Because the entire tropical ocean background is running absurdly warm even versus the recent baseline.

[GaWx]

9 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

A +2.7°C RONI peak may be comparable to 1982 in relative ENSO strength, but a +3.3°C ONI peak would still be physically meaningful because it reflects the actual SST anomaly humans, ecosystems, and the atmosphere experience. ONI already uses a rolling 30-year climatology updated every five years. So why is RONI still ~0.6°C lower? Because the entire tropical ocean background is running absurdly warm even versus the recent baseline.

I’ll give an extreme hypothetical case. Let’s say ONI were +3.3C and RONI were 0C because the tropical oceans were insanely warm. So, in other words, everything in and also around Nino 3.4 as well as the other tropical waters is insanely warm. Then wouldn’t that mean essentially no Nino SST pattern/no contrast vs surrounding waters existing to then lead to typical Nino atmospheric responses? That’s my understanding about the RONI idea.

[forkyfork]

21 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

also, let's be real, the only reason why this thread gets 95% of the traffic it does is because of the impact on the following winter, which carries the largest correlation to ENSO, anyway. i doubt anybody cares about the SW monsoon (aside from Raindance) or eastern Pacific algal blooms

it would be less annoying if you people could be objective about it. you didn't even think this would reach super a few months ago

[TheClimateChanger]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I’ll give an extreme hypothetical case. Let’s say ONI were +3.3C and RONI were 0C because the tropical oceans were insanely warm. So, in other words, everything in and around Nino 3.4 is insanely warm. Then wouldn’t that mean essentially no Nino SST pattern existing to then lead to typical Nino atmospheric responses?

The hypothetical only works by assuming the entire tropical ocean belt is +3.3°C above recent climatology, which is physically impossible. But yeah, in theory, if ONI were +3.3°C and RONI were 0°C, that would not mean “monster El Niño.” It would mean the entire tropical ocean was so absurdly warm that Niño 3.4 no longer stood out.

[LakePaste25]

this gave me a good laugh:

 

[forkyfork]

7 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

it would be less annoying if you people could be objective about it. you didn't even think this would reach super a few months ago

there's also the fact that the snow people have driven almost everyone else off the forum

[LakePaste25]

34 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

these events always begin very EP, that's nothing new. not much support on a persistent EP event... we should see things move basin-wide by the time winter rolls around. looks pretty 2015-16 esque in that regard, not 1997-98

Does the difference matter at that temp? 97-98 could’ve easily produced a blizzard just like 15-16. Maybe just less cold shots. 

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Does the difference matter at that temp? 97-98 could’ve easily produced a blizzard just like 15-16. Maybe just less cold shots. 

Isn’t the primary key in winter assuming you're far enough north usually the storm tracks?

[LakePaste25]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

Isn’t the primary key in winter assuming you're far enough north usually the storm tracks?

My opinion is the east based nature of 97-98 did not prevent a big snowstorm from occurring. 82-83 was east based and produced a big snowstorm in the northeast and mid atlantic, and 72-73 produced a big snowstorm in the south. So whether it is east based or basin wide such as 15-16, there is still usually an opportunity or two. 

[MarcmmKU]

On 5/31/2026 at 10:20 AM, GaWx said:

 I’ve noticed that there’s a significant number especially in the northern U.S. here and at other wx bbs who like cold only for snow chances and otherwise prefer mild in winter. They hate cold and dry, complain about it being “useless cold”, and prefer mild if it’s not going to snow. The good news with very strong El Niño winters is that there’s typically not as much cold, dry wx as in other winters. There will generally be a few significant to possibly major snowstorms but otherwise lots of mild for those folks to enjoy.

 I always prefer cold but I’m deep in the SE US and thus cold here isn’t typically that cold up north. If I were living up north, I’d probably have a different take on my desire for cold and would enjoy mild periods much more as mild up there is not nearly as warm as down here and too much and too severe cold would get tiring fast.

 

Cold snow > Cold dry > warm dry > warm wet.

[brooklynwx99]

28 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

it would be less annoying if you people could be objective about it. you didn't even think this would reach super a few months ago

waiting until the spring barrier passes to make an ENSO forecast is pretty standard. I said a couple weeks ago that we are probably getting a super event and that a strong event was likely in early April. not sure what the issue is there

[brooklynwx99]

31 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Does the difference matter at that temp? 97-98 could’ve easily produced a blizzard just like 15-16. Maybe just less cold shots. 

nah i mean we're likely looking at a warm winter for most anyway

[Cobalt]

55 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

it would be less annoying if you people could be objective about it. you didn't even think this would reach super a few months ago

it's okay, we're all wrong sometimes

On 9/8/2025 at 12:09 PM, forkyfork said:

second year nina with a raging negative pdo. i hope you have a good supply of zoloft for this winter

On 9/8/2025 at 11:12 AM, forkyfork said:

i can't wait to lowpost in january when we barely get to freezing

 

[MarcmmKU]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Isn’t the primary key in winter assuming you're far enough north usually the storm tracks?

Not always. Even northern new england isn't immune to literal torches. See December 2015. I am crossing my fingers we don't get something like this again.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Isn’t the primary key in winter assuming you're far enough north usually the storm tracks?

Its the primary key for how stormy/snowy winter will be. But you absolutely have to expect thaws/non-winter stretches in a strong nino. The snow season lasts Nov-Apr, so unlike last winter which was steady cold/white during DJF, you go into this winter knowing there will be interruptions and shitty spells but if you can settle into an active pattern, plenty of snow chances too. 

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, MarcmmKU said:

Not always. Even northern new england isn't immune to literal torches. See December 2015. I am crossing my fingers we don't get something like this again.

December 2015 was just a trainwreck but the rest of the winter wasnt bad here. There was actually a very scenic snowstorm Nov 21st then it was quiet snow-wise til early January. One of the hallmarks of strong ninos tends to be one real shitty month and the rest of the time ok. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

This is a strong Polar Vortex over the Arctic circle for the next 13 days! Since 2012, May-Aug SLP anomaly 60-90N has flipped in the Winter every time. That's a Winter -AO signal (but it's still early)!

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

these events always begin very EP, that's nothing new. not much support on a persistent EP event... we should see things move basin-wide by the time winter rolls around. looks pretty 2015-16 esque in that regard, not 1997-98

No, this does not look like 2015 at all. It was never this east-based
 

Here is what Paul Roundy has to say;
 
 

 

[raindancewx]

For the 100-180W subsurface, Mar-May, 1997 and 2026 are nearly identical

Year   March/April/May

1997      1.17 / 2.17 / 2.01

2026    1.36 / 2.24 / 2.00

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

[bluewave]

21 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

To be fair, we are also putting a major dent in the warm pool, and the warmest waters are now between 160-170E with plenty of westerlies remaining in the forecast.

 

We have a record 30C warm pool from the IO over to Nino 4. So the Nino forcing is linking up with forcing near the Maritime Continent. This is part of the reason that the models have the warmth in Canada and across the Northern Tier states as we head into June.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 hours ago, mitchnick said:

It didn't cave last year or the year before either fwiw, and did pretty well with the BN temps forecasts.

Usually the seasonal guidance will be biased towards stock ENSO, so when a seasonal model shows that output leading into an intense El Nino episode, it should provide reason for pause.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

This is a strong Polar Vortex over the Arctic circle for the next 13 days! Since 2012, May-Aug SLP anomaly 60-90N has flipped in the Winter every time. That's a Winter -AO signal (but it's still early)!

Another nod towards 1997.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

these events always begin very EP, that's nothing new. not much support on a persistent EP event... we should see things move basin-wide by the time winter rolls around. looks pretty 2015-16 esque in that regard, not 1997-98

I think it's important to not get too cute with the EMI when ENSO gets this strong because all of them are going to be "basin wide" in the sense that the anomalies will encompass the entirety of the ENSO area. Good luck getting 2.5C in the east or west, and having 0C on the other end. This is why I'm not really focused too much on EMI.

[michsnowfreak]

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Another nod towards 1997.

Unpopular opinion here. 1997-98 wasnt AS bad as it gets a rep for in the Great Lakes. It sucked, but an nunprecedented shutout (just a T) in February sealed its fate in infamy. Nov-Jan was ok, multiple rounds of snow (then a few more in March). The 2nd half of January was solid white ground and gray skies and the temp barely moved. Good enough for snow but I imagine terrible for ice fishing. 

Still high on the list of winters I dont care to ever see again, but significantly better than 1982-83.