2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think the cooler February reference was in regard to long ranger seasonal models like the CanSIPS and EPS monthly which had the cooler stock February El Niño composite for the Mid-Atlantic.

Okay, I stand corrected. Colder than I recalled.

[snowman19]

[PhiEaglesfan712]

11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I don't recall 23-24 expected to be that warm. Seasonal models, especially the Euro, constantly had a trough over the Mid Atlantic in the mean, below average heights. -QBO was expected to dip the AO negative. We did end up having 4 Strat warmings that Winter, but +NAO won out. The -PDO/east-based Nino composite worked out perfectly, a warmer version of 72-73, but many people realized that only after the fact. It led to a lot of PDO reliance in 24-25 and 25-26, which then busted people too warm lol. 

Plus, a similar strength el nino in 09-10, which produced a very cold (and in the mid-Atlantic, very snowy winter) happened in between.

In hindsight, though, we probably should have seen that 25-26 was going to be a cold and snowy winter in the East, and warm in the West. 25-26 was the 2nd year without a defined ENSO state. In recent times, 2nd years without a defined ENSO state (93-94 and 13-14) were cold and snowy in the East, and warm in the West.

[LakePaste25]

Getting (cautiously) more bullish that we see a classic Nino response and the W pac warm pool will not be as influential. The suppressed  convection in the W pac, believe it or not, is actually being under modeled now.

[snowman19]

[FPizz]

Should Snowman change his name to Ben Noll?  Its pretty much his feed non-stop in here.

[snowman19]

22 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Should Snowman change his name to Ben Noll?  Its pretty much his feed non-stop in here.

You’re a f*cking asshole. Par for the course from you. Troll

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Okay, I stand corrected. Colder than I recalled.

That cansips was from Sept though...pretty far out. 

[forkyfork]

42 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Should Snowman change his name to Ben Noll?  Its pretty much his feed non-stop in here.

should he hold your hand and tell you it's going to be a modoki? 

[brooklynwx99]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Okay, I stand corrected. Colder than I recalled.

there was also a major block that was poorly forecasted in February... one of the worst pattern busts I've ever seen. if that occurred, things would have turned out a whole lot differently that month

[roardog]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

 

These guys are talking about atmospheric responses like WWB,MJO,SOI, etc. I don’t think anyone here disagrees with any of this. Posters like Bluewave and Chuck are talking about the pattern over the North Pacific and or North America not being completely Nino like. I’m still not even sure why we should even be expecting a strong Nino response right now since the RONI is at like +.5

[PhiEaglesfan712]

32 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

should he hold your hand and tell you it's going to be a modoki? 

If you told me this upcoming el nino is going to be a modoki, I'll gladly take my chances with it. 

[forkyfork]

5 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If you told me this upcoming el nino is going to be a modoki, I'll gladly take my chances with it. 

1997. deal with it

[George001]

11 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If you told me this upcoming el nino is going to be a modoki, I'll gladly take my chances with it. 

It’s unlikely it will be a modoki given the warmth already present in Nino 1.2 and the current subsurface structure (hence Andy Hazeltons comparison to 1997) + the historical precedence of super ninos to leak east. Nino 1.2 never really cooled off even during our past 2 la Nina’s. Its not impossible it becomes a modoki, but given where we are currently at east based should be the favored outcome, or at least a super Nino with an eastern tilt. 

[rclab]

5 minutes ago, George001 said:

It’s unlikely it will be a modoki given the warmth already present in Nino 1.2 (hence Andy Hazeltons comparison to 1997) + the historical precedence of super ninos to leak east. Nino 1.2 never really cooled off even during our past 2 la Nina’s. Its not impossible it becomes a modoki, but given where we are currently at east based should be the favored outcome, or at least a super Nino with an eastern tilt. 

 It sad, getting old! All the fine posts by well versed members/meteorologists and the only thing I remember is “copulating anus”. As always ….

[Stormchaserchuck1]

In other news, we have a pretty good +AO setting up for the early Summer (May-June), for the 3rd consecutive year. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

-23 Daily SOI today

If May ended now, it would be the 6th most negative SOI month since Apr 2016. 

Apr-May would be close to the 2nd lowest 2-month period since Apr 2016. 

Definitely an El Nino. I just don't know if it's going to go off the hinges in global pattern domination. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

+7c has popped in the far east, highest of the event so far. Still warming.  Definitely taking on an east-based look

[LakePaste25]

22 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

-23 Daily SOI today

If May ended now, it would be the 6th most negative SOI month since Apr 2016. 

Apr-May would be close to the 2nd lowest 2-month period since Apr 2016. 

Definitely an El Nino. I just don't know if it's going to go off the hinges in global pattern domination. 

Curious to see the S hemisphere height anomalies for the ensembles. As they go into the cold season, are we seeing their counterpart to the deep Aleutian/GOA low? Asking because I don’t have access to good SH height anomaly ensemble maps. 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^That's a good point. Definitely watch the S. Hemisphere Winter to see if it's propagating to the mid latitude Cell. Pretty good correlation you found there, I like how it's a sea of yellow otherwise.