2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Show me on the doll where mother nature hurt you....

I'm bracing for impact. My only hope is that the Super Nino and PDO act as deconstructive forces that somehow allow us to see wintry weather. 

[soadforecasterx]

Not sure the track record here but we could see another big jump soon. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said:

Not sure the track record here but we could see another big jump soon. 

The October "mother of all WWB" has been on the Cfs2 for close to 2 months. Hard to believe with that model, but true nonetheless. 

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

It was a+2.1 event up until a few years ago before the CPC dropped it to +1.8. So until very recently it was rated as a lower end super. 

In any event, it’s rare to get a +AO +EPO +WPO pattern in October regardless of the ENSO. We haven’t since this October combination since the 2011 La Niña. 

But this time around we are getting a stronger mid-latitude ridge across the CONUS than 2011 had. Unusual to get such a strong TPV this early in the season.

 The CPC has 1972-3 peaking at +2.0 in its most up to date RONI table linked just below. Since RONI is the official way of classifying (and has been since Feb), that’s the current CPC official peak for 1972-3 rather than +1.8:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/

 More on the transition of CPC from ONI to RONI for official classification of ENSO (this was released in Feb 2026):

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/announcement.php

 From the link above:

“The Climate Prediction Center is making the shift to use the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) to better designate past events and predict future ENSO.”

———————

 The table at the link below, which is to the most up to date ONI, has 1972-3 peaking at +1.8. But ONI hasn’t been the official way for CPC to classify since Feb. At the top it says this:

This page will continue to be updated by the 5th of each month, but per NWS Public Information Statement 26-05, the Relative Oceanic Niño index (RONI) is used for official monitoring and prediction of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/oni/v6/

@Maestrobjwa

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Show me on the doll where mother nature hurt you....

We see so many posts like that, some are trolling, some just unawareness, some maybe a combination of both. But the inability for some to differentiate between a seasonal mean and the actual day to day weather is wild. The weather ebbs and flows and changes on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis. This shouldnt have to be explained repeatedly on a weather forum, but it does.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

We see so many posts like that, some are trolling, some just unawareness, some maybe a combination of both. But the inability for some to differentiate between a seasonal mean and the actual day to day weather is wild. The weather ebbs and flows and changes on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis. This shouldnt have to be explained repeatedly on a weather forum, but it does.

People throwing in the towel in October make me laugh. Same people do this every winter.  There are so many factors to consider during the winter.  Its not just enso.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

People throwing in the towel in October make me laugh. Same people do this every winter.  There are so many factors to consider during the winter.  Its not just enso.

Even throwing in the towel just based on ENSO, alone, would seem to be awfully bold.

[roardog]

All regions are on a rapid rise. Even Nino 4 is finally heading back up rapidly. 

[MJO812]

Mike Masco's thoughts

[brooklynwx99]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Mike Masco's thoughts

more like weenies gone wild

[Chinook]

I have brought back my 500mb map/ 250mb map archives for general research purposes. I started off doing this a couple of years ago for tracking the jet stream during the El Nino winter a couple of years ago. 

 

https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Sep_2026_500mb_loop.html

 

https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Sep_2026_250mb_loop.html

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

All regions are on a rapid rise. Even Nino 4 is finally heading back up rapidly. 

Yes some impressive warmings going on right now from the Yelllow Sea,Sea of Japan,Sea of Okhotsk and for matter Bearing Sea,this has effects from the polar cold stream vs the warm Stream and mixes out,it dont seem to matter ATM,even probably wont matter with even a typhoon recurving of of Japan,its not going to effect the PDO

[Keith Central PA]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Mike Masco's thoughts

All winter we surely going to have this discussion. There will be storrms, but will it be cold enough?.Your gonna say perfect track but there is no cold air.

[jaxjagman]

2 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Yes some impressive warmings going on right now from the Yelllow Sea,Sea of Japan,Sea of Okhotsk and for matter Bearing Sea,this has effects from the polar cold stream vs the warm Stream and mixes out,it dont seem to matter ATM,even probably wont matter with even a typhoon recurving of of Japan,its not going to effect the PDO

When you have all these polar currents in East Asia breeding on warmth,youd want to see some of these oceans colder and not warmer.it doesnt mix out very well