2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Dec, Jan, Feb :

 

Thank you! Have you had a chance to compare these to the prior forecast’s maps?

 My first impression is that Dec is a good bit cooler than I expected as per analogs.

Edit: @snowman19must be flipping out seeing how cool Dec is!!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

lol I wonder how much people are paid to program these models

Where's the raindancewx post where Canadian had a cool Aug for the US at 0.0 month lead and it was near the warmest on record!

[EasternLI]

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thank you! Have you had a chance to compare these to the prior forecast’s maps?

 My first impression is that Dec is a good bit cooler than I expected as per analogs.

Edit: @snowman19must be flipping out seeing how cool Dec is!!

 

I do not have any prior runs saved for comparison, unfortunately. However, it does look quite wet for Dec.

 

[mitchnick]

31 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thank you! Have you had a chance to compare these to the prior forecast’s maps?

 My first impression is that Dec is a good bit cooler than I expected as per analogs.

Edit: @snowman19must be flipping out seeing how cool Dec is!!

Cfs2 has been coming in along those lines too in recent forecasts fwiw.

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Nearly -200dm N. Pacific trough in February. Color me skeptical. 

These models were so bad in 23-24. 

So you've gone over to the dark side too, ehh? Lol 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Cfs2 has been coming in along those lines too in recent forecasts fwiw.

Yep both have been consistent

[raindancewx]

Canadian update shows PDO trending positive through Feb-Mar before reversing again.

It shifted the center of the El Nino east. Still has a central event, which is why it is cold for the East. But it is shifting the warm plume/enhanced equator moisture east with each run now.

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, EasternLI said:

 

I do not have any prior runs saved for comparison, unfortunately. However, it does look quite wet for Dec.

 

Beautiful signature. Should be a fun winter . Very active ( Hopefully alot of snow)

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

Canadian update shows PDO trending positive through Feb-Mar before reversing again.

It shifted the center of the El Nino east. Still has a central event, which is why it is cold for the East. But it is shifting the warm plume/enhanced equator moisture east with each run now.

This is primarily the reason I now expect normal precipitation for Austin thru September in 2027. For this autumn and winter, maybe a couple of inches, and some drizzle.

All of my hopes for at least replenishing rains in Austin are utterly DASHED. Texas WILL run out of water. We will run out of the water because of a catastrophically dry Record El Nino, then we get a catastrophically strong Nina. That strong Nina, in 2027 or in 2028, is why Texas will break so many high temperature records and get so damned DRY that the groundwaters WILL run out and the Colorado River will get lower than anyone in living memory can ever recall. At the same time, the tech buildup in Austin will cause many many many people to move here accelerating the  water uptake with nothing to replenish the water reserves. By 2029 water will be so expensive many will move east into the mid South where there is much more rain.

There is a reason all the trees down here are a third of the height of trees in N Virginia.

It's dry.

We are so forsaken by life-giving rains, that even during the 40 day rain event of deep antiquity, we probably got 40 days of light drizzle. We are used to this. It is NO surprise. Of course we got missed by the strongest El Nino in history! I have always wanted to be caught right in the middle of a record 489 billion year flood for the Ages. Of course, I am shyte out of luck and always will be.

This is a very east-based Nino, moisture plume will orient very far east,(well-away from south central Texas of course) record Nino or not. If you like sunshine, no floods ever, and east based Ninos, come live in Austin. We will have plenty of sun all winter and the average high temperature in January in Austin is 60 degrees! We have the best weather in the entire world, especially if you don't mind perpetual drought and rapidly diminishing water reserves!

Damn I have got to get out of this place! I wanna spend a few years in Cherrapunji, India. Trust me, that place gets plenty of rain!

Nepal stole our flood event. Damn!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

NWS Fairbanks on X: "Through August 30th, Fairbanks has experienced its coldest year to date in 54 years (since 1972), with an avg temp of 28.7°F ranking as the 11th coldest year to date. The warmest temp recorded this year was 81°F, the 2nd coldest maximum ever. Here's a look at the numbers. #akwx" / X

I don't know how to embed, but the lowest Summer maxes in Fairbanks since 1980.. 3 of them roll forward to a good +EPO signal for the following Winter

[SnoSki14]

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Beautiful signature. Should be a fun winter . Very active ( Hopefully alot of snow)

Lol yeah no. 

[mitchnick]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

NWS Fairbanks on X: "Through August 30th, Fairbanks has experienced its coldest year to date in 54 years (since 1972), with an avg temp of 28.7°F ranking as the 11th coldest year to date. The warmest temp recorded this year was 81°F, the 2nd coldest maximum ever. Here's a look at the numbers. #akwx" / X

I don't know how to embed, but the lowest Summer maxes in Fairbanks since 1980.. 3 of them roll forward to a good +EPO signal for the following Winter

How does using Jan-Mar look? My guess is that Nov & Dec have the greatest +anomalies, but I  could be wrong of course.

[OSUmetstud]

Ahh..okay. So the main disconnect im seeing with the cooler relative noaa data is the actually the difference in sst analysis. The non-relative oisstv2.1 is running considerably warmer than the non-relative ersstv6. This is because of the courser nature of ersstv6 and the lack of satellite data integration. The ersstv6 is best for historical comparisons but it will tend to not see the real warmest anomalies because of its nature. 

[OSUmetstud]

Because of this, the offical NOAA monthly data will likely be in the neighborhood of maybe like 2.2C for non-relative nino 3.4 and 1.8C for relative for August. 

BOM, UKMET, and ECMWF data may run warmer because of the difference in sst analysis and the integration of high resolution sst data that noaa is not doing. 

 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Lol yeah no. 

Too many people are prematurely giving up on winter already. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Canadian update shows PDO trending positive through Feb-Mar before reversing again.

It shifted the center of the El Nino east. Still has a central event, which is why it is cold for the East. But it is shifting the warm plume/enhanced equator moisture east with each run now.

I been noticing that, too, which isn't a shock since we all know that the Modoki look that it and the JMA have been selling is overcooked.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

NWS Fairbanks on X: "Through August 30th, Fairbanks has experienced its coldest year to date in 54 years (since 1972), with an avg temp of 28.7°F ranking as the 11th coldest year to date. The warmest temp recorded this year was 81°F, the 2nd coldest maximum ever. Here's a look at the numbers. #akwx" / X

I don't know how to embed, but the lowest Summer maxes in Fairbanks since 1980.. 3 of them roll forward to a good +EPO signal for the following Winter

No surprise with an El Nino this powerful...no way it's going to be a -EPO in the seasonal mean.

[40/70 Benchmark]

[40/70 Benchmark]

I would be careful with the CANSIPS...it's still evolving this El Nino too much towards the Modoki end of the spectrum. It's in error in that respect. Raindance just pointed that out, as did I in my blog last week. 

[OSUmetstud]

There's far too much disconnect with the 2m temp and 850mb temp on the CANSIPS over the Great Lakes. Maybe some sort of model issue?

 

 

[MJO812]

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would be careful with the CANSIPS...it's still evolving this El Nino too much towards the Modoki end of the spectrum. It's in error in that respect. Raindance just pointed that out, as did I in my blog last week. 

How much longer are people going to dismissals what this is showing ? We are getting closer. 

Maybe this winter will not be as bad as people think.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

How much longer are people going to dismissals what this is showing ? We are getting closer. 

Maybe this winter will not be as bad as people think.

I'm confident that it's too cold.....these seasonal models can be in error right up until verification, as we have seen.

That being said, I don't expect an awful snowfall season for the east coast.

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm confident that it's too cold.....these seasonal models can be in error right up until verification, as we have seen.

That being said, I don't expect an awful snowfall season for the east coast.

I’m thinking +3 or so DJF for the mid atlantic, but with plenty of shots at a KU. Same page?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

I’m thinking +3 or so DJF for the mid atlantic, but with plenty of shots at a KU. Same page?

I haven't thought too much about temp departures numbers yet, but yea...maybe even a bit colder. I could see it being like +3 up here. A lot will depend on whether we get that one exotically warm month on the front end, which is very possible.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Odd...CANSIPS corrected the El Nino east again, but pattern actually trended a bit better. Maybe a sign of what I was saying about Modoki value not being a big deal when you have this much warmth throughout the basin, or the model is just OTL

[bluewave]

The CanSIPS completely missed how east based this event has become and is just repeating the same error in its current forecast. Most other models also showed this but not to the same degree. It also underestimated the record warm pool east of Japan so I would take forecasts in that area with a pinch of salt also.

 

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

August Run:

 

 

September Run:

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, bluewave said:

The CanSIPS completely missed how east based this event has become and is just repeating the same error in its current forecast going forward. Most other models also showed error  this but not to the same extent. It also underestimated the record warm pool east of Japan so I would take forecasts in that area with a pinch of salt also.

 

 

 

 

Absolute same page.

[40/70 Benchmark]

CANSIPS def. has that Canadian ridge too far NW....I'm sure of it. Most of my composites have it just NNW of the lakes.

 

 

[forkyfork]