2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[so_whats_happening]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

What the fuck are you talking about? I don’t give a shit if you’re a red rag or not don’t you dare accuse me plagiarism

You need to relax man twitter has you all up in a bind over nothing. You rage out on every poster who questions you. Fix those issues man.

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, so_whats_happening said:

You need to relax man twitter has you all up in a bind over nothing. You rage out on every poster who questions you. Fix those issues man.

Can we get back to El Nino and not call people out online? 

[so_whats_happening]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

Can we get back to El Nino and not call people out online? 

We are on page 127 of this thread and it is August nearly 50% of these pages are filled with crap. 

[TriPol]

Just now, so_whats_happening said:

We are on page 127 of this thread and it is August nearly 50% of these pages are filled with crap. 

There are other weather forums. No one is forcing you to be here.

[so_whats_happening]

Just now, TriPol said:

There are other weather forums. No one is forcing you to be here.

No one forced you to respond either yet somehow you felt it was important.

[TriPol]

Just now, so_whats_happening said:

No one forced you to respond either yet somehow you felt it was important.

I'm trying to read about a historic El Nino. That's all I care about. I just want to read it in peace and not read posts about a meteorologist calling out other people who are not meteorologists because of something they did. I think that's what we all want, yes? So you delete your post attacking snowman19 and I'll delete my posts as well and we can all go back to tracking a once in a lifetime weather event. 

[so_whats_happening]

4 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I'm trying to read about a historic El Nino. That's all I care about. I just want to read it in peace and not read posts about a meteorologist calling out other people who are not meteorologists because of something they did. I think that's what we all want, yes? So you delete your post attacking snowman19 and I'll delete my posts as well and we can all go back to tracking a once in a lifetime weather event. 

Im good thanks though. Carry on with your reading.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

You need to relax man twitter has you all up in a bind over nothing. You rage out on every poster who questions you. Fix those issues man.

You didn’t question me, you flat out accused me of plagiarism then produced zero evidence. I ask you again, what the fuck did I plagiarize? If you can’t back up your asshole accusations then don’t make them in the first place

Edit: This will be the last thing I ever say on this board, I’m deleting my account after this. Go fuck yourself @so_whats_happening and I say that in the nicest way possible. BTW, you are the worst met who posts on here since we are giving honest opinions. You are a cold/snow weenie and your thoughts and forecasts are never correct. You did a shit job predicting this event and downplayed it every step of the way. You suck. But other than that, you’re a great guy :-)

[so_whats_happening]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

You didn’t question me, you flat out accused me of plagiarism then produced zero evidence. I ask you again, what the fuck did I plagiarize? If you can’t back up your accusations then don’t make them in the first place

You have never produced a single thing by yourself. You consistently post others thoughts from twitter and say yep this is what I think will happen as if what they are saying is exactly as you would say and will happen. I question it because it literally looks like someone else took the time to actually make this and you just copied it, then you also simultaneously demean so many others around you who have differing opinions and actually put in the effort to create their own thoughts (whether right or wrong) and images to show an idea.

Then you go on a tantrum because someone doesn't believe you cursing and acting like a kid. You simply could have just said nope sorry I created this but thanks anyway. You really have a lot of growing up to do. Best of luck with that hope you find peace. Still don't believe you made it and simply do not care.

[A-L-E-K]

the lack of snow already getting to folks

[so_whats_happening]

57 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

You didn’t question me, you flat out accused me of plagiarism then produced zero evidence. I ask you again, what the fuck did I plagiarize? If you can’t back up your asshole accusations then don’t make them in the first place

Edit: This will be the last thing I ever say on this board, I’m deleting my account after this. Go fuck yourself @so_whats_happening and I say that in the nicest way possible. BTW, you are the worst met who posts on here since we are giving honest opinions. You are a cold/snow weenie and your thoughts and forecasts are never correct. You did a shit job predicting this event and downplayed it every step of the way. You suck. But other than that, you’re a great guy :-)

Never claimed to be the best met or honestly that good of a forecaster at all. Of course I like snow, not so much cold though hence why I don't live in Canada or Alaska or hell even New England or the upper Midwest. I love that I have been able to experience a near snowless winter and the most snow this area has ever seen in a matter of 12 years, I find it simply fascinating. A +10 December and a -10 February as well. Yep definitely had many reservations about this event.

Stay or leave up to you. Make sure to put that little poop emoji to let me know you care!

[LakePaste25]

8 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Now I understand, we use MEI now that it has finally caught up but before it was discredited as a metric because it was not showing what people wanted. This thread gets more funny by the day. I feel I should just create a twitter account based off this.

That was me who was dismissing the MEI awhile ago and you still don’t see me posting about it. Just not a fan of it. It’s equally weighting all variables, only uses one dataset (JRA-55), and like ensonerd mentioned it’s limited to the first EOF. I felt like it made the 2023-24 event weaker than it was even compared to the RONI, thanks to the rare -PMM that went with it. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

The one you seem to be discrediting has actually been more negative than the one you posted.

2020 -1.41 -1.48 -1.75 -1.32 -0.52 -0.75 -0.92 -1.33 -1.04 -0.62 -1.58 -0.98
2021 -0.61 -1.09 -1.67 -1.84 -2.04 -1.82 -2.00 -0.95 -1.96 -3.14 -2.75 -2.71
2022 -2.40 -1.91 -1.67 -2.09 -2.23 -1.31 -2.63 -2.38 -2.28 -1.81 -2.40 -2.21
2023 -1.24 -1.65 -2.45 -3.08 -2.41 -2.55 -2.54 -2.48 -2.99 -2.23 -1.79 -1.66
2024 -1.57 -1.34 -1.54 -2.11 -2.98 -3.15 -3.01 -2.91 -3.56 -3.80 -3.13 -2.03
2025 -1.29 -1.40 -1.12 -1.15 -1.66 -2.64 -4.21 -3.23 -2.31 -2.37 -1.51 -0.96
2026 -1.24 -1.00 -1.42 -1.62 -1.67 -1.71 -2.03 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

Versus

2020 -0.79 -1.12 -1.68 -1.32 -0.68 -0.86 -0.77 -0.85 -0.75 -0.29 -1.23 -0.92
2021 -0.73 -1.29 -1.70 -1.77 -2.33 -1.89 -1.93 -0.84 -1.70 -2.69 -2.37 -2.47
2022 -2.22 -1.72 -1.63 -2.19 -2.44 -1.42 -2.44 -1.78 -1.78 -1.48 -1.83 -1.85
2023 -1.24 -1.79 -2.50 -3.13 -2.46 -2.67 -2.44 -2.02 -2.52 -1.88 -1.16 -1.20
2024 -1.48 -1.33 -1.27 -1.99 -3.01 -2.93 -2.62 -2.37 -3.10 -3.24 -2.58 -1.57
2025 -0.97 -1.20 -0.81 -1.07 -1.84 -2.62 -3.83 -2.54 -1.71 -1.82 -1.02 -0.39
2026 -0.87 -0.79 -1.18 -1.28 -1.64 -1.32 -1.29 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat

This one is the one that site uses.

My mistake...I guess I spoke out of turn and should have double-checked.

Thanks.

I'm going to stick with that source, though in an effort to be homogeneous. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

Never claimed to be the best met or honestly that good of a forecaster at all. Of course I like snow, not so much cold though hence why I don't live in Canada or Alaska or hell even New England or the upper Midwest. I love that I have been able to experience a near snowless winter and the most snow this area has ever seen in a matter of 12 years, I find it simply fascinating. A +10 December and a -10 February as well. Yep definitely had many reservations about this event.

Stay or leave up to you. Make sure to put that little poop emoji to let me know you care!

None of us are perfect...best any forecaster can do is try to keep an open mind, be willing to admit error and look to improve. My outlooks got a lot better the moment I stopped perceiving alternative view points as a threat and tried incorporating them....truth is that every individual has something to offer.

[40/70 Benchmark]

42 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

That was me who was dismissing the MEI awhile ago and you still don’t see me posting about it. Just not a fan of it. It’s equally weighting all variables, only uses one dataset (JRA-55), and like ensonerd mentioned it’s limited to the first EOF. I felt like it made the 2023-24 event weaker than it was even compared to the RONI, thanks to the rare -PMM that went with it. 

MEI is great for what it's designed to do...assess how well coupled ENSO is with the tropical atmosphere:

The bi-monthly Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI.v2) is the time series of the leading combined Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of five different variables (sea level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperature (SST), zonal and meridional components of the surface wind, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)) over the tropical Pacific basin (30°S-30°N and 100°E-70°W).

I'm not sure why it should be viewed as a quality assessment outside of that bounded area of the tropical Pacific....it's not going to be able to detect how well the tropics are in sync with the mid latitudes, rather it is designed to measure the quality of the coupling between the ocean and atmosphere in the tropical Pacific. The RONI is probably better equipped to gage the link between the tropics and mid latitudes, but ultimately I think we just need to dig in an assess for ourselves like Chris has been doing. I don't care is the MEI is 5.3, there is still obviously a prism between the tropics and mid latitudes and no, that isn't necessarily a "good" thing for winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

There is definitely a correlation....obviously the mid latitudes stand a better chance of being in sync with the tropics of the MEI is higher, but it's not absolute. Kind of akin to how the AO is correlated to colder mid latitude winters, but there are always exceptions when areas outside of it's domain are pervasive drivers.

[LakePaste25]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

MEI is great for what it's designed to do...assess how well coupled ENSO is with the tropical atmosphere:

The bi-monthly Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI.v2) is the time series of the leading combined Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of five different variables (sea level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperature (SST), zonal and meridional components of the surface wind, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)) over the tropical Pacific basin (30°S-30°N and 100°E-70°W).

I'm not sure why it should be viewed as a quality assessment outside of that bounded area of the tropical Pacific....it's not going to be able to detect how well the tropics are in sync with the mid latitudes. The RONI is probably better equipped for that, but ultimately I think we just need to dig in an assess for ourselves like Chris has been doing. I don't care is the MEI is 5.3, there is still obviously a prism between the tropics and mid latitudes and no, that isn't necessarily a "good" thing for winter.

We can agree to disagree. SOI, VP anomalies, and OLR anomalies will also tell me if it’s coupled and I much prefer using those. I’m just not a fan of using it. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

We can agree to disagree. SOI, VP anomalies, and OLR anomalies will also tell me if it’s coupled and I much prefer using those. I’m just not a fan of using it. 

You don't feel that ENSO is coupled with the tropics right now?

I guess we can agree to disagree, then.

I prefer a to use all of them TBH, and they all imply the same thing...ENSO is driving the tropics attm.

[LakePaste25]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You don't feel that ENSO is coupled with the tropics right now?

I guess we can agree to disagree, then.

This is like me saying you don’t agree it’s east based because you don’t like using the ELI. I simply didn’t like how the MEI was a limited dataset nor did I need to wait for this monthly updated to figure out it was coupled. 

[GaWx]

 Yesterday’s 12Z CFSv2 run has the AAM at 4+ for all 4 members simultaneously for only the 2nd run I’ve ever seen! This has that on day 15 (Aug 18th) although it is just for that one day. The only other run that I’ve seen with all 4 members at 4+ at the same time on any day is the 8/1/26 12Z run and it didn’t have that til way out only 3 days from the end of the run (day 32 or 9/1/26)! @snowman19

12Z 8/4/26 CFSv2 AAM: all >4 on 8/18/26

[bluewave]

Latest Euro update has the Nino 3.4 ONI values peaking around +4. The Nino 1.2 ONI SSTs are now approaching +5. The longer range plumes have Nino 1+2 SSTs remaining elevated into next spring and summer. 
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

This is like me saying you don’t agree it’s east based because you don’t like using the ELI. I simply didn’t like how the MEI was a limited dataset nor did I need to wait for this monthly updated to figure out it was coupled. 

Oh, I misunderstood....right. I agree with that. It was obvious.

As far as the ELI goes.....it's really not even worth arguing bc it's a moot point this season, anyway given the degree of warmth in the basin. That being said, if anyone uses that index exclusively to assess ENSO orientation moving forward, there will undoubtedly be issues....although that can probably be said about any particular metric.

[michsnowfreak]

54 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

None of us are perfect...best any forecaster can do is try to keep an open mind, be willing to admit error and look to improve. My outlooks got a lot better the moment I stopped perceiving alternative view points as a threat and tried incorporating them....truth is that every individual has something to offer.

Agree, but sadly some will never keep an open mind, admit error, and stop attacking those with alternate viewpoints.

[TriPol]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Latest Euro update has the Nino 3.4 ONI values peaking around +4. The Nino 1.2 ONI SSTs are now approaching +5. The longer range plumes have Nino 1+2 SSTs remaining elevated into next spring and summer. 
 

 

Just a feeling, but I think the EURO is underdoing Nino 3.4. 

[George001]

2 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

You have never produced a single thing by yourself. You consistently post others thoughts from twitter and say yep this is what I think will happen as if what they are saying is exactly as you would say and will happen. I question it because it literally looks like someone else took the time to actually make this and you just copied it, then you also simultaneously demean so many others around you who have differing opinions and actually put in the effort to create their own thoughts (whether right or wrong) and images to show an idea.

Then you go on a tantrum because someone doesn't believe you cursing and acting like a kid. You simply could have just said nope sorry I created this but thanks anyway. You really have a lot of growing up to do. Best of luck with that hope you find peace. Still don't believe you made it and simply do not care.

He needs to go outside and touch grass, in the real world if he told say his coworkers, friends family etc that there’s an incoming historic super Nino and it would lead to a mild winter in the east, most people are gonna respond to that with a “fuck yeah I’m not gonna have to shovel as much”…. I’m not happy about it because I ski, but in my experience most people prefer warm with less snow. I mean hes right that there is a historic super Nino coming, but a mind that ruminates about everyone who disagrees with you is not a mind optimized for efficiency. Let those people who think there won’t be a super Nino be confidently wrong… It’s a waste of time to try to convince some rando idiots on twitter and even care about what they think. Some people are going to be delusional and wishcast, we don’t do that on this subforum, he should grow up and just get over it and not give people he doesn’t like the time of day. They will continue to do what they do no matter what he says or what tantrum Adam throws, and Adam is going to do what he does. It is what it is. 

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

He needs to go outside and touch grass, in the real world if he told say his coworkers, friends family etc that there’s an incoming historic super Nino and it would lead to a mild winter in the east, most people are gonna respond to that with a “fuck yeah I’m not gonna have to shovel as much”…. I’m not happy about it because I ski, but in my experience most people prefer warm with less snow. I mean hes right that there is a historic super Nino coming, but a mind that ruminates about everyone who disagrees with you is not a mind optimized for efficiency. It’s a waste of time. Some people are going to be delusional and wishcast, we don’t do that on this subforum, he should grow up and just get over it and not give people he doesn’t like the time of day. They will continue to do what they do no matter what he says or what tantrum Adam throws, and Adam is going to do what he does. It is what it is. 

Super El Nino gives us a super sub-tropical jet which, if merged with the pacific jet or arctic jet during a cold time in december, january or feb, can give us historic blizzards. There is going to be an incredibly active STJ Autumn/Winter. We just need a bit of cold air to go with that and BOOM. We have never ever seen anything like this before -- it's going to be very exciting to watch. 

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Just a feeling, but I think the EURO is underdoing Nino 3.4. 

It’s certainly possible. These impressive WWBs keep increasing the warm  pool and push it further east. The next one coming up will also break records. 
 

 

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

It’s certainly possible. These impressive WWBs keep increasing and pushing the record warm pool further east. The next one coming up will also break records. 
 

 

We are witnessing and tracking something no other living human being has ever seen before... it's amazing.

[George001]

4 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Super El Nino gives us a super sub-tropical jet which, if merged with the pacific jet or arctic jet during a cold time in december, january or feb, can give us historic blizzards. There is going to be an incredibly active STJ Autumn/Winter. We just need a bit of cold air to go with that and BOOM. We have never ever seen anything like this before -- it's going to be very exciting to watch. 

Yeah what makes it interesting is the magnitude of this event, we have had super ninos before but previous ones have peaked around +2.5C, some of the latest guidance has this one in the +3.5C to even +4C range, which is significantly stronger than even previous super ninos. We have been tracking the more aggressive end of guidance too, on the dallies Ninos 3.4 is already at around +2.5C, Nino 3 +3C, and Nino 1.2 +4C.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Agree, but sadly some will never keep an open mind, admit error, and stop attacking those with alternate viewpoints.

You just described 75% of social media.