2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Why does the CANSIPS have the El Nino continue to be centered so far west? That's not the way it's developing or is now. +6c in Nino 3.4 is pretty extreme. Nino 1+2 is currently twice as high as Nino 3.4. 

[so_whats_happening]

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

OHC is at a new high on this graph:

Now it will be interesting to see what happens from here. Looking back at 1997-98 we see there was a double peak for 180-100W OHC. 2015 we also saw this and 2023 again both years did have overall less OHC than 97 and this current year but both had a double peak, 1982 did not just had one continuous upward movement. My own thoughts would suggest maybe a September peak in OHC then a quick decline as we head into winter. The only problem with this is the lack of - anomalies in the WPAC subsurface we have yet to really see develop compared to other years with a similar temp profile. So as 180-100W may die out the overall 130E-80W and even just 160E-80W still stay relatively warm with those stronger negative anomalies not showing up leading to a more basin wide setup as we get to winter. Just thoughts floating around as we typically see the Nino events die west to east from an OHC stand point.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

YR    MON   130E-80W   160E-80W   180W-100W

1997    1      .54       .49        .56
1997    2      .84       .85       1.00
1997    3     1.09      1.26       1.17
1997    4     1.49      1.87       2.17
1997    5     1.38      1.82       2.01
1997    6     1.55      2.01       2.25
1997    7     1.34      1.77       1.83
1997    8     1.07      1.50       1.79
1997    9     1.25      1.85       2.38
1997   10     1.35      2.05       2.56
1997   11     1.19      1.94       2.30
1997   12      .56      1.15       1.02
1998    1     -.24       .16        .00
1998    2     -.66      -.35       -.38

It is like if 1997 and 2015 had a baby. Shame we are not getting the western edge of TAO as those buoys are being worked on.

[so_whats_happening]

On 7/30/2026 at 10:57 PM, so_whats_happening said:

Yea this one will be fascinating to watch unfold. The atmospheric pattern still resembles that of a La Nina/ -PDO mode in the northern hemisphere for sure. 

Even with the tropical activity in the WPAC this year (which is great to see) we haven't seen many recurving typhoons sinlaku was the closest to still being a typhoon while recurving. Most of the storms have still been tracking west which doesn't bode well for the PDO to flip, maybe we see that change as we get into fall.

I would like to add more context I guess, it is nice to see some actual recurves still taking place even in a weakened state of a storm the energy injection is still important. I do wonder though if this means yet again an overall weaker Aleutian low potential for winter, time will tell of course.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

4 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Looking at it this way, 97-98 and 87-88 stick out to me a little more so than the others. Again, not because of the actual readings compared to each other. Rather, the positioning of the warm pool biased east. 

Interesting to note that each of these events were immediately followed by a strong la nina (1998-2000 and 88-89).

[snowman19]

+12C subsurface anomalies are coming
 

And the WWBs just keep pushing that 30C isotherm further and further east of the dateline. Great forecast by the EURO months ago showing the record far east warm pool
 

 

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, GaWx said:

1. Why are you using 1991-2020 for climo for a 1987 summer? That diminishes the above normal H5 in the E US on your 1st map.

2. The highest height anomalies/warmest temp annomalies are in the E US, regardless. How is that El Ninoish?

2026 is near the warmest July on record in my first post using 1991-2020 climate normals at +2.5 since that is the base period Brian used. The departure would be even higher if an older base period was used.

My 2nd post uses 1971-2000 climo and even that cooler one shows that 1987 wasn’t a warm summer for the CONUs even during the 1980s. Notice the warmest summer of that decade was 1988 which came in the summer after the El Niño and not before. So this El Niño is getting off to a much warmer start than usual. 

It’s El Ninoish since it matches most of the pattern for an El Niño summer from the Pacific across to the Atlantic. Every spot isn’t going to be a 100% match. But most of the area from the Pacific to the Atlantic is a reasonable 500 mb match whatever the base period is used for an El Niño summer.

A hallmark of a developing very strong El Niño pattern during the summer is higher 500mb heights further north and lower heights underneath from the Pacific to the Atlantic. This summer the pattern is reversed which lead to all the record warmth across the CONUS.

The record ridge north of Hawaii this month is the reason that the PDO had the steep drop in July. This is not the 500 mb pattern that we have typically had during any El Niños which were on their way to super status. So this event is in a league of its own in numerous ways. 
 

 

[EasternLI]

5 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

I would like to add more context I guess, it is nice to see some actual recurves still taking place even in a weakened state of a storm the energy injection is still important. I do wonder though if this means yet again an overall weaker Aleutian low potential for winter, time will tell of course.

That is the PDO battle royale in a nutshell. As a -PDO plus +ENSO can yield a weaker Aleutian low than you would otherwise expect to see. Yet, PDO variability and transitions has links to the strength of the Aleutian low too. So it's fascinating watching a +enso of this caliber coming up against the deeply entrenched -PDO state. Since Aleutian low strength has ties to +enso strength also. Does one or the other win out? Or is it more of a blend between the two? I lean towards a record el nino taking an upper hand at some point. I feel like this event has some potential to flip us out of that long term -PDO state too or at least begin to. Who knows, but it's really interesting to watch.

[mitchnick]

Well, I'm happy with the new Cansips. Still too cool up north I suspect, but the precip anomalies are great if you like coastal and temps are more than workable for many I would say.

And fwiw, the end of the run is cooling waters around Japan dramatically and warming the NE Pacific. End of -PDO maybe, or at least working on it? Definitely working to build a Niña at the end though.

500mb starting December:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026080100&fh=4

Surface temps starting December:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026080100&fh=4

Precip starting December:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=apcpna_month&runtime=2026080100&fh=4

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

That is the PDO battle royale in a nutshell. As a -PDO plus +ENSO can yield a weaker Aleutian low than you would otherwise expect to see. Yet, PDO variability and transitions has links to the strength of the Aleutian low too. So it's fascinating watching a +enso of this caliber coming up against the deeply entrenched -PDO state. Since Aleutian low strength has ties to +enso strength also. Does one or the other win out? Or is it more of a blend between the two? I lean towards a record el nino taking an upper hand at some point. I feel like this event has some potential to flip us out of that long term -PDO state too or at least begin to. Who knows, but it's really interesting to watch.

That will be the test going forward. We will have to see how things evolve in the coming months. Since the seasonal models missed this summer pattern. So the seasonal models may even have lower skill than they traditionally have had beyond the one month forecast period. 

This summer is featuring a weaker Aleutian low than usual for a developing super El Niño and a much stronger mid-latitude ridge across the Pacific and the CONUS. 

So if this continues into the winter , then it could mean the traditional super El Niño ridge gets displaced further south and perhaps east into the CONUS than usual.

Since a -PDO atmospheric state even overlapping at 10%-20% relative to the winter super El Niño forcing could lead to shifts.

This would have implications on the warmth and possibly where the heaviest precipitation zones set up. 

The mid-latitude ridges being stronger than the troughs has been the main feature of our winters and other seasons since the 2015-2016 super El Niño. 

 

 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

That is the PDO battle royale in a nutshell. As a -PDO plus +ENSO can yield a weaker Aleutian low than you would otherwise expect to see. Yet, PDO variability and transitions has links to the strength of the Aleutian low too. So it's fascinating watching a +enso of this caliber coming up against the deeply entrenched -PDO state. Since Aleutian low strength has ties to +enso strength also. Does one or the other win out? Or is it more of a blend between the two? I lean towards a record el nino taking an upper hand at some point. I feel like this event has some potential to flip us out of that long term -PDO state too or at least begin to. Who knows, but it's really interesting to watch.

Idk, last year's Niña was pretty standard for Niñas with snows along the east coast and cold. 

[snowman19]

That is the PDO battle royale in a nutshell. As a -PDO plus +ENSO can yield a weaker Aleutian low than you would otherwise expect to see. Yet, PDO variability and transitions has links to the strength of the Aleutian low too. So it's fascinating watching a +enso of this caliber coming up against the deeply entrenched -PDO state. Since Aleutian low strength has ties to +enso strength also. Does one or the other win out? Or is it more of a blend between the two? I lean towards a record el nino taking an upper hand at some point. I feel like this event has some potential to flip us out of that long term -PDO state too or at least begin to. Who knows, but it's really interesting to watch.

I’ll die on this hill, the PDO is going to be weak positive by the end of met fall

[EasternLI]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Idk, last year's Niña was pretty standard for Niñas with snows along the east coast and cold. 

Well yeah, but that's a totally different animal from today. That's in sync with the PDO. This El nino is out of sync. That makes all the difference and I can try to make a post later as to why. I never had any problem with la nina's. Weak to moderate enso of either sign historically can treat me well locally. It's neutral or very strong events I'm not overly fond to see. Here's a picture from the blizzard this past winter. Ended up with 2 feet.

 

[snowman19]

@Gawx Over/under that the MEI is already at or above +2 given the current obs of the parameters it measures? If so, given that those parameters are projected to only get stronger the next few months and the record-breaking rise since April, I think we set a new MEI record (old record: +2.9)…..

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Well yeah, but that's a totally different animal from today. That's in sync with the PDO. This El nino is out of sync. That makes all the difference and I can try to make a post later as to why. I never had any problem with la nina's. Weak to moderate enso of either sign historically can treat me well locally. It's neutral or very strong events I'm not overly fond to see. Here's a picture from the blizzard this past winter. Ended up with 2 feet.

 

My point was despite any warming, last year's Niña was pretty canonical. This year's Niño can still happen (canonical) by either the PDO coming around or the Niño overwhelming it. And when you consider all the seasonal models are pretty well aligned to one, odds favor it short of a total failure of all seasonal modeling. 

[EasternLI]

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’ll die on this hill, the PDO is going to be weak positive by the end of met fall
 

I feel that it will too but think it's also important to point out that there is some resistance out there.

[csnavywx]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Why does the CANSIPS have the El Nino continue to be centered so far west? That's not the way it's developing or is now. +6c in Nino 3.4 is pretty extreme. Nino 1+2 is currently twice as high as Nino 3.4. 

This is a known issue with the model. It will almost always favor CP Ninos until later on. I'm going to guess this has at least partially has to do with too much ocean model vertical mixing and diffusion as well as convective schemes that underestimate coupling and convective feedbacks (e.g. Bjerknes feedback).

[snowman19]

10 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

This is a known issue with the model. It will almost always favor CP Ninos until later on. I'm going to guess this has at least partially has to do with too much ocean model vertical mixing and diffusion as well as convective schemes that underestimate coupling and convective feedbacks (e.g. Bjerknes feedback).

It has been completely awful with the strength too. The worst out of any other model, in a world all to its own. It finally woke up and is playing catch up now. The weakest out of any other model for months and blatantly wrong

[michsnowfreak]

18 hours ago, GaWx said:

But the summer of 1987 was hot based on the climo centered on the period it was within as I posted. Why are you comparing it to more recent (hotter) climo that makes it not seem as hot? Also, the hottest was in the E 1/2 of the US regardless of what climo you use.

You know the drill lol.

The summer of 1987 through July 31st was hotter at Detroit than the summer of 2026.

Since winter all we hear about is the conus avg. Forget regional weather patterns or local weather. Its wild that weather, on a weather board, is now constantly overshadowed by a singular average temp for the United States. 

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

2026 is near the warmest July on record in my first post using 1991-2020 climate normals at +2.5 since that is the base period Brian used. The departure would be even higher if an older base period was used.

My 2nd post uses 1971-2000 climo and even that cooler one shows that 1987 wasn’t a warm summer for the CONUs even during the 1980s. Notice the warmest summer of that decade was 1988 which came in the summer after the El Niño and not before. So this El Niño is getting off to a much warmer start than usual. 

It’s El Ninoish since it matches most of the pattern for an El Niño summer from the Pacific across to the Atlantic. Every spot isn’t going to be a 100% match. But most of the area from the Pacific to the Atlantic is a reasonable 500 mb match whatever the base period is used for an El Niño summer.

A hallmark of a developing very strong El Niño pattern during the summer is higher 500mb heights further north and lower heights underneath from the Pacific to the Atlantic. This summer the pattern is reversed which lead to all the record warmth across the CONUS.

The record ridge north of Hawaii this month is the reason that the PDO had the steep drop in July. This is not the 500 mb pattern that we have typically had during any El Niños which were on their way to super status. So this event is in a league of its own in numerous ways. 
 

 

 Here’s 1980-89 summer mean vs 1971-2000 climo: 1980s were NN

 

Here’s 1987 summer vs same climo: notably warmer than the NN 1980s mean E 1/2 US and it did that during Nino: that was not Ninoish at all; comparing it to other hot summers like 1980, 1983, or 1988 is a red herring as they weren’t Nino

 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@Gawx Over/under that the MEI is already at or above +2 given the current obs of the parameters it measures? If so, given that those parameters are projected to only get stronger the next few months and the record-breaking rise since April, I think we set a new MEI record (old record: +2.9)…..

Over

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Here’s 1980-89 summer mean vs 1971-2000 climo: 1980s were NN

 

Here’s 1987 summer vs same climo: notably warmer than the NN 1980s mean E 1/2 US and it did that during Nino: that was not Ninoish at all; comparing it to other hot summers like 1980, 1983, or 1988 is a red herring as they weren’t Nino

 

It matches the El Niño composite in most areas from the Pacific to the Atlantic. So a little warmer in the East relative to the rest of the CONUS isn’t really a dealbreaker. This summer so far is much more of an outlier than 1987 was. You have really been stretching to find similarities to this summer which don’t exist.

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It matches the El Niño composite in most areas from the Pacific to the Atlantic. So a little warmer in the East relative to the rest of the CONUS isn’t really a dealbreaker. This summer so far is much more of an outlier than 1987 was.

Chris,

 1. Just “A little warmer in the East” relative to the rest of CONUS”? For summer, which has relatively lower variance, this is not just “a little”.

2. This discussion started based on you posting cool Nino summer US maps. Why are you bringing up “Pacific to the Atlantic”? Red herring again.

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Chris,

 1. Just “A little warmer in the East” relative to the rest of CONUS”? For summer, which has relatively lower variance, this is not just “a little”.

2. This discussion started based on you posting cool Nino summer US maps. Why are you bringing up “Pacific to the Atlantic”? Red herring again.

3. I never said 1987 summer was as warm as 2026 summer to date. But it was still warm in the E US, which is not normal for Nino.

@bluewave

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

Chris,

 1. Just “A little warmer in the East” relative to the rest of CONUS”? For summer, which has relatively lower variance, this is not just “a little”.

2. This discussion started based on you posting cool Nino summer US maps. Why are you bringing up “Pacific to the Atlantic”? Red herring again.

No red herrings involved. My first post showing the warmth this month was based on the warmest 1991-2020 averages. So that is why I kept it for continuity between posts.

But your cooler base period doesn’t show any material difference from the main point how much warmer this summer has been than past developing El Niños due to the record ridging from north of Hawaii across the CONUS.

So it just seems like you are inventing ways to be argumentative without addressing the main point. 

[GaWx]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

No red herrings involved. My first post showing the warmth this month was based on the warmest 1991-2020 averages. So that is why I kept it for continuity between posts.

But your cooler base period doesn’t show any material difference from the main point how much warmer this summer has been than past developing El Niños due to the record ridging from north of Hawaii across the CONUS.

So it just seems like you are inventing ways to be argumentative without addressing the main point. 

 I never said this summer wasn’t hot and never said 1987 was as hot. But 1987 was still hot and not normal for Nino. That’s why I pointed it out as another hot summer exception for Nino. That’s all.

Edit: I agree with your original idea that 2026 hot summer to date is atypical of pre-super-Nino. Then I brought up ‘91 being hot because it was the other exception to pre-super Nino hot summers. Then you correctly said that ‘91 was still just weak during summer. Then I brought up 1987 because it was mod to strong Nino in summer and hot.

[bluewave]

First July 31st  ever with a +2.46 Nino 3.4 SST anomaly and a -2.03 PDO.

 

 

[qg_omega]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

First July 31st  ever with a +2.46 Nino 3.4 SST anomaly and a -2.03 PDO.

 

 

The oceans are on fire globally

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 I never said this summer wasn’t hot and never said 1987 was as hot. But 1987 was still hot and not normal for Nino. That’s why I pointed it out as another hot summer exception for Nino. That’s all.

Edit: I agree with your original idea that 2026 hot summer to date is atypical of pre-super-Nino. Then I brought up ‘91 being hot because it was the other exception to pre-super Nino hot summers. Then you correctly said that ‘91 was still just weak during summer. Then I brought up 1987 because it was mod to strong Nino in summer and hot.

The summer of 1987 was only the 6th warmest summer of the 1980s ranking only around the 60th warmest summer average temperature overall for the CONUS since 1895.

The warmest summer from that era was 1988 which was the 12th warmest average temperature for the CONUS.

While the summer of 1987  was warmer than the 1982 developing super El Nino, the 500mb and temperature pattern from the Pacific to the Atlantic was a general match for El Nino.

Even though there was an area of warmer departures relative to the other regions in portions of the East, other areas from the Pacific to Atlantic did match El Nino expectations. Since you can have a good general match without 100% conformity to the El Nino composite.
 

[mitchnick]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

That will be the test going forward. We will have to see how things evolve in the coming months. Since the seasonal models missed this summer pattern. So the seasonal models may even have lower skill than they traditionally have had beyond the one month forecast period. 

This summer is featuring a weaker Aleutian low than usual for a developing super El Niño and a much stronger mid-latitude ridge across the Pacific and the CONUS. 

So if this continues into the winter , then it could mean the traditional super El Niño ridge gets displaced further south and perhaps east into the CONUS than usual.

Since a -PDO atmospheric state even overlapping at 10%-20% relative to the winter super El Niño forcing could lead to shifts.

This would have implications on the warmth and possibly where the heaviest precipitation zones set up. 

The mid-latitude ridges being stronger than the troughs has been the main feature of our winters and other seasons since the 2015-2016 super El Niño. 

 

 

You've posted this several times this year and even before the 24/25 winter. So are you saying the ridges will be or won't be stronger and thereby causing current seasonal modeling for the southeast, mid atlantic, and/or northeast to be wrong? I mean you could be right, or you could be wrong  obviously, but your post appear to be simply saying "current seasonal modeling could be wrong." Forget about the rest of the globe because I'm sure we'll find seasonal modeling too strong or weak with ridges/troughs as that's a given.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

First July 31st  ever with a +2.46 Nino 3.4 SST anomaly and a -2.03 PDO.

 

 

The fact that the PDO has dropped -2 during the time of Nino 3.4 warming +2.4 has to be some kind of record too, for both sides (Nina+PDO too). It might be a 5-6std event.