2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

What I did tonight is just one part of what will be the full outlook...I also do a whole section on the extra tropical Pacific, which I haven't even touched yet. I also consider some sensible weather analogs from the summer across the country...this is just the first piece to the puzzle.

[raindancewx]

So the new AMO data is not de-trended like the old AMO data I used. If you de-trend it for time/global warming, correlation (r-squared) is over 0.8 between the two data sets for Nov-Apr.

I also converted the PDO data back to the old Nate Mantua/JISAO methodology which ran about +0.5 more positive (2014-15 was +2.07 from Nov-Apr by that method, now shows as +1.59).

Converted to the old methodology, where PDO was +2.07 and not +1.59 in 2014-15, I'd expect PDO in the -0.25 to +0.25 range for Nov-Apr (but it will show as -0.75 to -0.25 probably on the current methodology overall).

AMO looks like it will be in the +0.20 range. Even with the de-trending, AMO was bonkers in 2023-24, +0.60 for Nov-Apr, warmest ever v. baseline and long-term trends. Part of why the 1972-73 pattern held (warmest NE 1/4 US, much colder elsewhere) but not the actual temperature pattern that year (much hotter).

It's also really interesting seeing how weird the last solar cycle was in retrospect. We're quite similar to the down-slope of the cycle that peaked in 1968-1969 at 155 (we peaked at 149 in 2024-25).

The QBO data stopped in Feb 2026. However, the six most similar years to 2025 for QBO, by objective absolute value measure are:

2014 then 1972 then 2021 then 1974 then 1979 then 1958.

The winters starting 2015, 1973, 2022, 1975, 1980, 1959 are all +QBO winters in the +0 to +10 range.

El Ninos in that QBO range are 1957, 1963, 1969, 1977, 1982, 1987, 1994, 2004, 2006, 2015, 2018.

The Jamstec believe it or not has the Modoki index reaching +0.95 or so for Dec-Feb, v. +0.5 forecast for Dec-Feb forecast in July 2023 for Dec 2023-Feb 2024. I think it will trend lower, but its probably recognizing (correctly) that this event will decay rapidly in late winter from east to west, with the warmth maybe peaking in Nino 3.4 in Nov/Dec/Jan and then retreating to Nino 4 in Jan-Mar before collapsing in Summer. I'll guess +0.65 for the Modoki index.

I lean toward something like this now that my old analog system is fully up to date. But I wouldn't be surprised to see a pretty cold stretch in the East later in the winter, probably late-Feb to mid-Mar for about three weeks if I had to guess when you do briefly see pretty ideal Modoki conditions. I think Dec-Feb overall is pretty warm almost everywhere, especially North, even with a few intense, but brief cold snaps.

Winter	ONI DJF	AMO N-A	Sun Jul-Jun	ONI DJF(p)	Modoki	PDO N-A	Monsoon	QBO DJF	Weight
1963	0.8	-0.036	29.1	-0.4	0.48	-0.88	5.06	4.9	x1
1982	2.3	-0.156	129.2	0.0	-0.49	0.95	3.84	10.9	x3
1997	2.3	0.220	54.9	-0.4	-0.66	1.24	6.58	-1	x1
2004	0.5	0.222	55.3	0.3	0.48	0.47	4.06	0.3	x1
2015	2.6	0.211	55.8	0.6	0.32	1.70	5.02	9.2	x2
2018	0.9	0.049	5.5	-0.8	0.41	0.51	4.84	8.8	x2
Blend	1.75	0.05	64.96	-0.09	0.03	0.81	4.69	7.29	x10
Target	3.20	0.15	75.00	-0.40	0.65	0.30	3.67	5

Long-term, since Nino 3.4 is a stronger warm signal in the North and weaker in the south, the composite should actually be more extreme than depicted by the blend I used -

If you exaggerate the features of the winter to account for record setting warmth in Nino 3.4, I think you end up with something like this. Very warm in the North, still actually pretty snowy, and not really cold anywhere. I think we'll likely have a pretty cold December in the Southwest, and that's maybe the most extreme cold temperature month for the winter nationally.

Sort of a joke map - but my current rough idea.

Look at December - I think it will be warmer than this - by a lot in the warm areas and likely colder in the SW by quite a bit too.

Now look at the Jamstec and the composite. The east-based look is real and present. But it will likely be breaking down by mid Nov to mid Jan. I'm not warm enough for the Nino zones - you can't get a +3.0 to +3.5C in Nino 3.4 with the anomalies. But I essentially was able to validate that the Jamstec isn't crazy. It has a canonical +PNA - very warm NW/cool SE. I don't quite think we get that with the AMO / PDO as they are.

[so_whats_happening]

On 7/24/2026 at 10:14 AM, BlizzardWx said:

Somebody had made a comment on the cold 80+ N area the other day, but worth noting that sea ice continues to remain near record lows for the date. 

Unfortunately starting from a record low in winter will have this happen. The area of 80N and even close to 70N has been near normal or below normal temp wise most of the summer thus far. This is what you want to see in a good retention year but again starting point always matters. If this holds into August we should continue to slide above that 2012 number and get more inline with recent years probably 6-8th lowest roughly.

Im honestly surprised more so we didn't take a massive hit this year but presume next year will likely start another leg down. Fingers are crossed it doesn't.

[snowman19]

It’s basically a guarantee that the models get even stronger with the El Niño on the August runs. This ongoing WWB is record-breaking, literally off the charts and the current DWKW is gaining strength….



Subsurface: 2026 vs. 1997 vs. 2015 vs. 2023:


 

@Stormchaserchuck1

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

@40/70 Benchmark I was going to say, be careful predicting a <-60dm N. Pacific trough for the DJFM mean. The Pacific has done nothing like that for a while, July will be the 6th consecutive month with -PNA. 

It will be really interesting see how the Aleutian low develops with the rare July displacement into Alaska for such a strong El Niño.

This is the first developing super El Niño with such a low July PNA since 1972. While the sample size is very small, that event featured one of the most unusual winter Aleutian low patterns for such a strong El Niño up to that time.

Significantly colder era back then and this El Niño is much more intense. 
 

July PNA during developing super El Niños 

2023.. +1.15

2015…+0.76

1997….+0.56

1982…+0.97

1972….-0.76

[snowman19]

Maybe I’ll be wrong and if I am then so be it….I’ve been wrong before but I just can’t imagine the PDO staying negative this fall in the face of an extremely well coupled, historic super El Niño. My call is that the PDO flips to at least weakly positive by the end of November. If I’m wrong, oh well….

[BlizzardWx]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Maybe I’ll be wrong and if I am then so be it….I’ve been wrong before but I just can’t imagine the PDO staying negative this fall in the face of an extremely well coupled, historic super El Niño. My call is that the PDO flips to at least weakly positive by the end of November. If I’m wrong, oh well….

I generally agree. I suspect by fall it will be neutral to maybe slightly negative, ending slightly positive by the end of winter. 

[GaWx]

59 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Maybe I’ll be wrong and if I am then so be it….I’ve been wrong before but I just can’t imagine the PDO staying negative this fall in the face of an extremely well coupled, historic super El Niño. My call is that the PDO flips to at least weakly positive by the end of November. If I’m wrong, oh well….

History strongly supports a +PDO by no later than Nov as 94% of the 36 mod+ Ninos since the 1850s had a +PDO in Nov or earlier as only 2 didn’t have a NOAA +PDO by Nov: 1994/5 & 2023/4.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I could not agree with raindance more....my QBO composite is a bit different, but he just echoed that premise of my write up last night with absolute surgical precision in just a far more condensed manner.

Here an excerpt from my work:

Key Factors to Potentially Fuel More Active Second Half than Currently Forecast

The preliminary Eastern Mass Weather polar composite is littered with seasons that underwent a notable transition from a benign December-January period to a rather frenzied February and/or March, as El Niño peaks and undergoes a subtle change in orientation.

 

 

It was mentioned that this is a signal that is emergent among some seasonal guidance.

 

 

It was postulated that these forecasts are overstated and exaggerated, and are likely to be transient in nature. However,  it was also asserted that the forecast unprecedented intensity of El Niño should be of sufficient magnitude to at long last shift the western Pacific warm pool, which has been a fixture for a over a decade, further to the east. 

 

The question is whether it simply shifts to the dateline and acts as a Modoki, or even further east, which would heighten the odds of a very mild outcome, per the intense/east-based El Niño composites. Another option is for it to not move enough, which may produce an outcome similar to the MC-oriented 2023-2024 season, which is viewed was the least likely outcome. At the very least, the European seasonal guidance is supporting the current forecast for a mid season transition to greater volatility, but it looks to be even more exaggerated given it's assessment of the January polar domain.

 

Perhaps the eruption of Mount Agung was not justification for the outright dismissal of the 1963-1964 QBO analog from the polar composite, however, there is plenty of time to assess that decision as subsequent trends are modeled and future data is digested.

[40/70 Benchmark]

If I had a snowfall map right now, it would look like raindance's.

[michsnowfreak]

8 hours ago, raindancewx said:

So the new AMO data is not de-trended like the old AMO data I used. If you de-trend it for time/global warming, correlation (r-squared) is over 0.8 between the two data sets for Nov-Apr.

I also converted the PDO data back to the old Nate Mantua/JISAO methodology which ran about +0.5 more positive (2014-15 was +2.07 from Nov-Apr by that method, now shows as +1.59).

Converted to the old methodology, where PDO was +2.07 and not +1.59 in 2014-15, I'd expect PDO in the -0.25 to +0.25 range for Nov-Apr (but it will show as -0.75 to -0.25 probably on the current methodology overall).

AMO looks like it will be in the +0.20 range. Even with the de-trending, AMO was bonkers in 2023-24, +0.60 for Nov-Apr, warmest ever v. baseline and long-term trends. Part of why the 1972-73 pattern held (warmest NE 1/4 US, much colder elsewhere) but not the actual temperature pattern that year (much hotter).

It's also really interesting seeing how weird the last solar cycle was in retrospect. We're quite similar to the down-slope of the cycle that peaked in 1968-1969 at 155 (we peaked at 149 in 2024-25).

The QBO data stopped in Feb 2026. However, the six most similar years to 2025 for QBO, by objective absolute value measure are:

2014 then 1972 then 2021 then 1974 then 1979 then 1958.

The winters starting 2015, 1973, 2022, 1975, 1980, 1959 are all +QBO winters in the +0 to +10 range.

El Ninos in that QBO range are 1957, 1963, 1969, 1977, 1982, 1987, 1994, 2004, 2006, 2015, 2018.

The Jamstec believe it or not has the Modoki index reaching +0.95 or so for Dec-Feb, v. +0.5 forecast for Dec-Feb forecast in July 2023 for Dec 2023-Feb 2024. I think it will trend lower, but its probably recognizing (correctly) that this event will decay rapidly in late winter from east to west, with the warmth maybe peaking in Nino 3.4 in Nov/Dec/Jan and then retreating to Nino 4 in Jan-Mar before collapsing in Summer. I'll guess +0.65 for the Modoki index.

I lean toward something like this now that my old analog system is fully up to date. But I wouldn't be surprised to see a pretty cold stretch in the East later in the winter, probably late-Feb to mid-Mar for about three weeks if I had to guess when you do briefly see pretty ideal Modoki conditions. I think Dec-Feb overall is pretty warm almost everywhere, especially North, even with a few intense, but brief cold snaps.

 

 

Winter	ONI DJF	AMO N-A	Sun Jul-Jun	ONI DJF(p)	Modoki	PDO N-A	Monsoon	QBO DJF	Weight
1963	0.8	-0.036	29.1	-0.4	0.48	-0.88	5.06	4.9	x1
1982	2.3	-0.156	129.2	0.0	-0.49	0.95	3.84	10.9	x3
1997	2.3	0.220	54.9	-0.4	-0.66	1.24	6.58	-1	x1
2004	0.5	0.222	55.3	0.3	0.48	0.47	4.06	0.3	x1
2015	2.6	0.211	55.8	0.6	0.32	1.70	5.02	9.2	x2
2018	0.9	0.049	5.5	-0.8	0.41	0.51	4.84	8.8	x2
Blend	1.75	0.05	64.96	-0.09	0.03	0.81	4.69	7.29	x10
Target	3.20	0.15	75.00	-0.40	0.65	0.30	3.67	5

Long-term, since Nino 3.4 is a stronger warm signal in the North and weaker in the south, the composite should actually be more extreme than depicted by the blend I used -

If you exaggerate the features of the winter to account for record setting warmth in Nino 3.4, I think you end up with something like this. Very warm in the North, still actually pretty snowy, and not really cold anywhere. I think we'll likely have a pretty cold December in the Southwest, and that's maybe the most extreme cold temperature month for the winter nationally.

Sort of a joke map - but my current rough idea.

Look at December - I think it will be warmer than this - by a lot in the warm areas and likely colder in the SW by quite a bit too.

Now look at the Jamstec and the composite. The east-based look is real and present. But it will likely be breaking down by mid Nov to mid Jan. I'm not warm enough for the Nino zones - you can't get a +3.0 to +3.5C in Nino 3.4 with the anomalies. But I essentially was able to validate that the Jamstec isn't crazy. It has a canonical +PNA - very warm NW/cool SE. I don't quite think we get that with the AMO / PDO as they are.

 

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If I had a snowfall map right now, it would look like raindance's.

Just a suggestion if you guys make future snow maps closer to winter. It usually helps if you give a rough % of average to go in line with your thinking. I knew what raindance was getting at with the snow map (admittedly just a preliminary joke map rough idea) but it always looks funny when you see something like "snowy" in Atlanta and "not snowy" in Marquette. 

[LakePaste25]

I’d put the mid atlantic under “equal chances” IMO. Super Ninos are usually hit or miss there, dependent on 1 storm. It’s close to 50% likelihood given the sample size.

[GaWx]

32 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 

Just a suggestion if you guys make future snow maps closer to winter. It usually helps if you give a rough % of average to go in line with your thinking. I knew what raindance was getting at with the snow map (admittedly just a preliminary joke map rough idea) but it always looks funny when you see something like "snowy" in Atlanta and "not snowy" in Marquette. 

 “Snowy” in ATL can be ~3”+ as the average SN/IP is ~2”. Thus snowy in ATL can easily be from just one storm. More often than not, “snowy” in any particular location in the SE US away from the mountains is mainly from just one major storm along with possibly one+ minor hits.

 Another thing about a place like ATL or even RDU vs Marquette: a much larger % of the wintry precip is sleet or ZR when averaged out over the decades. I roughly estimate 1” of sleet is equivalent to 2.5” of snow on average. So, for example, ATL got ~4” of sleet in 2/1979 and 1/1988. They had the water equivalent, impact, and staying power of ~10” of snow. In addition, ZR doesn’t even measure as S/IP as we know. 
 
 So, the 2” ATL avg tends to understate to an extent its avg wintry precip vs, say, a straight 2” avg snow.

 

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

I’d put the mid atlantic under “equal chances” IMO. Super Ninos are usually hit or miss there, dependent on 1 storm. It’s close to 50% likelihood given the sample size.

It literally has been--and it happens to be every other one too: 65-66 yes, 72-73 no, 82-83 yes, 97-98 no, 15-16 yes...so are we about to be no again according to that pattern? Lol 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

 

Just a suggestion if you guys make future snow maps closer to winter. It usually helps if you give a rough % of average to go in line with your thinking. I knew what raindance was getting at with the snow map (admittedly just a preliminary joke map rough idea) but it always looks funny when you see something like "snowy" in Atlanta and "not snowy" in Marquette. 

I don't even do maps..I do a snowfall table and give ranges.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

I’d put the mid atlantic under “equal chances” IMO. Super Ninos are usually hit or miss there, dependent on 1 storm. It’s close to 50% likelihood given the sample size.

I can't stand that cop-out style....just make a forecast. Is there luck involved, sure....but there is luck in everything...it's called chaos. If the Super Bowl is close and it comes down to one play, do they stop the game and just hand out "equal chance" ribbons to very player?

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We aren’t going to know how the atmosphere is going to react (forcing) to having the 30C isotherm east of the dateline until this fall. Even 1997 never saw the 30C warm pool come this far east. The models continue to show it getting all the way to 140W, which is definitely believable now given all the record WWBs and there is also no precedent for it since that has never happened before

Exciting stuff....there is a unicorn scenario in there which it pulls everything just far enough to act like a Modoki, but I would only bet on that for small periods right now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm not talking about early on...forget that. December is going to be warm. Case closed. But some guidance like the JMA and EURO are trying to pull it back far enough west to salvage January....that is what I am skeptical of. I think that guidance is overdone.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The AMO is pretty much the only aspect I didn't really touch on, though I supposed that isn't specifically connected to the polar domain, so that is probably best left for the actual outlook....but I do have that in the back of my head for colder risks. I def feel the correction vector for me is colder.

Didn't December 2018 have a mid Atlantic snowstorm? I remember it missed me, but I think it nailed VA.

I think it was January 2019:

2019-01-12	37	30	33.5	-3.8	31	0	0.13	1.9	0
2019-01-13	32	29	30.5	-6.7	34	0	0.71	8.3	4
2019-01-14	37	27	32.0	-5.2	33	0	T	0.1	10

[40/70 Benchmark]

I could see a situation like 2005, 2015 and 2016 where we flip with a big storm the last week of January, but it would be a mild month in the mean.

[BuffaloWeather]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I could see a situation like 2005, 2015 and 2016 where we flip with a big storm the last week of January, but it would be a mild month in the mean.

Whats the average snowfall for Super El Nino years look like in the northeast/Great lakes? The temps are insane here in Buffalo. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Whats the average snowfall for Super El Nino years look like in the northeast/Great lakes? 

I'm sure below average, but LES belts are a wild card.

1972-1973, 1982-1983, 1997-1998, 2015-2016.

[raindancewx]

The Midwest Regional Climate Center snow maps for the years I picked. You can see generally the Northern Plains and Ozarks sort of get screwed for snow. Northwest does OK, especially if the PDO stays negative into Fall. Northeast does OK. Southeast & Southwest are generally furthest above means for snow. I can't get the maps to work for 2004-2005 and 1963-64.

This is my attempt at drawing the consolidated snow maps. I put in a few example cities. So Richmond (~50%) is further above average than Philadelphia (~20%) and Philadelphia is further above average than Boston, which is a hair below (5-10%). Detroit and Chicago are around 20% below average. Topeka is right on the edge of the just below average/just above average zone (since it is low elevation, and blue western areas will be highly elevation dependent in a warm pattern for snow). Reno was something like 40% above average, Albuquerque around 20%. I'm using 1961-2020 as snow baseline. Billings is 3,000+ feet above sea level and around 15% below average. Those higher areas in the orange areas won't do too poorly, its the lower spots that get hosed.

I may change my main analogs for temps, but I don't expect to change the snow maps. I'm pretty comfortable with this group for where moisture will be.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea, basically 1982-1983.

2005 was a top 3 season in SNE....I don't expect that.

[EasternLI]

Looking at the SST changes vs last year at this time would give you the impression this is an entire Pacific ocean event. Pretty wild. Which is interesting too because the entire ocean is really making all of the right moves towards a +IPO. Or interdecadal pacific oscillation. Which would include a longer term +PDO. The south pacific especially, but the NH is trying too apparently. Not much reason to think that wouldn't continue given everything either. Going to be a really impressive event to watch. Already is. Can we flip the longer term pacific too? It's been negative for quite some time. I envision that would take a monster event to set in motion. Or at least look like one. I could be wrong of course, but it so happens we have one... Fascinating. 

 

 

Impact of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific

https://www.nature.com/articles/srep12358

 

[GaWx]

 OISST relative in 3.4 rose a lot yesterday (~0.1C):

 

 What will tomorrow’s official weekly release show though? They’ve been lower than what these OISST graphs were suggesting. This graph suggests it will be +1.7C for the prior calendar week avg. However, they had it at only +1.4C last Monday despite this chart suggesting +1.6C. So, they’ve been low vs the graph. In reality, the graph suggests it warmed a little more than 0.1C since the prior week. So, we’ll see.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

It will be really interesting see how the Aleutian low develops with the rare July displacement into Alaska for such a strong El Niño.

This is the first developing super El Niño with such a low July PNA since 1972. While the sample size is very small, that event featured one of the most unusual winter Aleutian low patterns for such a strong El Niño up to that time.

Significantly colder era back then and this El Niño is much more intense. 
 

July PNA during developing super El Niños 

2023.. +1.15

2015…+0.76

1997….+0.56

1982…+0.97

1972….-0.76

Yeah, you know what's going on. I'd give the % chance of something like that happening like 5-10% right now. 

[raindancewx]

The PNA is negative to barely positive in July in a lot of the big El Ninos on this data set.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/pna.data

2023: +0.65

2015: +0.29

1997: +0.10

1982: +0.49

1972:   -1.13

July was negative in 2018, 1963, 1965, 2004, etc along with 1972

Was also negative in Aug 1997.

 

[snowman19]

The OHC is all the way up to +2.8C. We have blown away 1997’s record of +2.5C

[Stormchaserchuck1]

11 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@Stormchaserchuck1

I'm impressed at how much further west the subsurface warm pool extends vs 1997. This could mean two things:

1) There is more fuel for this Nino to go stronger - and perhaps stronger in Nino 3

2) The "Strong La Nina snap-back" for 27-28 may not be as probable as some may think.