2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, mitchnick said:

The Jamstec. My new favorite seasonal model...so far.

https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html

Looks 2009-10ish. Interesting both jamstec and cansips are far from a warm winter.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

How did the JMA initialize the current Nino (I know it has a west or central-based configuration in the Winter)?

[mitchnick]

32 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Looks 2009-10ish. Interesting both jamstec and cansips are far from a warm winter.

Yep. So far, there are no seasonal forecasts that are undeniable furnace forecasts in the east, save maybe for NNE. But NNE can still get lots of snow with AN+ temps.

[Cobalt]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Leave it to the usual cold and snow obsessed weenies on here and on twitter (i.e. Mark Margavage) to be wishcasting that 2009-10 is an analog for this winter with a raging super El Niño. Twilight zone. I’m literally in awe that people are actually suggesting that this is going to be a very cold winter. Talk about delusional and in deep denial
 

This winter is going to be absolutely comical once the weenie meltdowns start Lmfaooooo 

You’re really bold predicting that a Super El Niño in 2026 will be warmer than normal. I’m almost in shock, it takes a lot of guts to forecast something like that.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Leave it to the usual cold and snow obsessed weenies on here and on twitter (i.e. Mark Margavage) to be wishcasting that 2009-10 is an analog for this winter with a raging super El Niño. Twilight zone. I’m literally in awe that people are actually suggesting that this is going to be a very cold winter.
 

This winter is going to be absolutely comical once the weenie meltdowns start Lmfaooooo 

The fact that you would put in writing the last sentence is what you live for says it all about you. Just sayin'.

And to think you denied it before last winter when I accused you of just that.

[LakePaste25]

What are the top analogs for this event? Let me guess: 09-10, 14-15, 04-05, 02-03, 76-77, and 77-78

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, LakePaste25 said:

What are the top analogs for this event? Let me guess: 09-10, 14-15, 04-05, 02-03, 76-77, and 77-78

I would say 72-73 and 23-24, although we risk the AO going more negative than those analogs. 15-16 would probably be my number 3

[Santa Claus]

snowman is the site’s best poster

[michsnowfreak]

39 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Leave it to the usual cold and snow obsessed weenies on here and on twitter (i.e. Mark Margavage) to be wishcasting that 2009-10 is an analog for this winter with a raging super El Niño. Twilight zone. I’m literally in awe that people are actually suggesting that this is going to be a very cold winter. Talk about delusional and in deep denial
 

This winter is going to be absolutely comical once the weenie meltdowns start Lmfaooooo 

Lmao. This coming from the person who had to scour the internet and post tweets in Spanish and French last winter to desperately find something showing it wouldnt be cold in the east.

Why would i wish cast 2009-10? I live in Michigan, not the Mid-Atlantic. It was an average winter here. Not bad, but sandwiched by 3 excellent winters it was unmemorable here. I just said the map mitchnick posted looked like that.

Oh and who suggested cold? You can embed 8 tweets in one post so you fit your daily post limit, but no one else can share something without it meaning they suggest its what happens? Ive actually said multiple times i expect a milder than avg winter here. Again. Michigan. I dont need what you consider below avg or avg temps to get snow.

Youre right about one thing though. Your meltdowns/tantrums will be absolutely comical if winter is not a record furnace or if the east gets a noreaster. Like heat miser accusing mother of liking snow miser best.

[michsnowfreak]

21 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The fact that you would put in writing the last sentence is what you live for says it all about you. Just sayin'.

And to think you denied it before last winter when I accused you of just that.

There really cant possibly be anyone who's game is as clear as his. 

[michsnowfreak]

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

You almost forgot 57-58 and 65-66 lol Every time there’s an El Niño, no mater what, the weenie’s fantasy analogs are: 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 77-78, 02-03, 04-05, 09-10 and 14-15!!! As predictable as the rising sun!

Enso state is irrelevant to what your yearly analogs are. Whatever is warmest and least snowy on the east coast. I dont even live there and I know that.

[michsnowfreak]

24 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I would say 72-73 and 23-24, although we risk the AO going more negative than those analogs. 15-16 would probably be my number 3

Plenty of snowstorms in the lakes in 72-73 & 15-16. 23-24 was the one month winter. Nearly winters entire load blown in January. 

[michsnowfreak]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

You’re a true moron lol

Exactly what I think of you. I typically don't name call though, something you do all the time to people in here.

[donsutherland1]

IMO, the big issue right now is the disagreement between the JAMSTEC (much cooler ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly relative to the Region 3.4 anomaly) and other guidance e.g., ECMWF seasonal (similar or warmer Region 1+2 anomaly relative to the Region 3.4 anomaly). We're in June. What is fairly certain is that a strong/super ENSO event is likely. In addition, the Region 1+2 anomaly has been running higher than the Region 3.4 anomaly into early June. Given the forecast strength of the ENSO, strong or persistent blocking would be helpful if one is looking to maximize wintry prospects. Whether this will be more like 1877-78, 1972-73, 1982-83, or 1997-98 remains to be seen, especially this far out. 

[rclab]

34 minutes ago, Santa Claus said:

snowman is the site’s best poster

That will change, Santa, if you ever parole Will. As always …..

[raindancewx]

The best way to validate what will happen with this event is to find opposite conditions :

Solar Max or Min (rather than mid-cycle)

Strong east based La Nina in Summer that is colder (relatively) than Nino 4

Opposite IOD/AMO for Summer.

Roll that year or blend of years forward and flip it. That should match the analogs. Haven't done that yet.

[Santa Claus]

14 minutes ago, rclab said:

That will change, Santa, if you ever parole Will. As always …..

i am humble enough to pay tribute to my betters

[MJO812]

47 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

You’re a true moron lol

Your track record predicting long range forecasting is atrocious. How did your winter forecast turn out last winter ?

[MJO812]

40 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Exactly what I think of you. I typically don't name call though, something you do all the time to people in here.

Hes a troll

[raindancewx]

The truth is you guys in the Northeast probably won't get too much snow.

In your favor -

1) Very wet conditions are likely.

2) Some blocking is likely later on.

Not in your favor -

1) -PDO is a negative PNA tendency. I expect PNA finishes positive in Nov-Mar, but not by much in a few of the periods. There won't be a whole of lot of shots at big nor'easters when it is cold.

2) -AMO trend pushes storms to the South. I had storms miss me (in the desert) in 2010-11, 2009-10, 2011-12, and 2018-19 to the South - same applies in the Northeast.

3) Three cold winters in a row is rare for the Northeast, and should not be the expected outcome.

4) Sort of looks to me like a -WPO in the Fall which will build up cold in Canada, and then it gets warmed up and dispersed in winter when it flips later on.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

28 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

The best way to validate what will happen with this event is to find opposite conditions :

Solar Max or Min (rather than mid-cycle)

Strong east based La Nina in Summer that is colder (relatively) than Nino 4

Opposite IOD/AMO for Summer.

Roll that year or blend of years forward and flip it. That should match the analogs. Haven't done that yet.

I'm a believer in utilizing reverse conditions. The dataset is limited, so historically La Nina's look different than the reverse of El Nino's (they both aren't warm in the east when strong). Some of that is because El Nino's tend to be more east-based, but there is still discrepancy in the reversals. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

The northeast doesn't need a cold winter for decent snowfall, but I agree that it won't be cold. 2010-2011 was actually one of the best seasons on record up here.

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The northeast doesn't need a cold winter for decent snowfall, but I agree that it won't be cold. 2010-2011 was actually one of the best seasons on record up here.

Won't be a record year, save the highest elevations. No one has said otherwise.  But it's incredible how just posting model progs can cause such a stir. 

But as I said in my post to Michigan, no seasonal forecasts I've seen are flat out furnaces in the east. That and the surprisingly cold forecasts by at least the Cansips and Jamstec make me at least optimistic for a few snow chances considering the AN precip along the coast by most models.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Won't be a record year, save the highest elevations. No one has said otherwise.  But it's incredible how just posting model progs can cause such a stir. 

But as I said in my post to Michigan, no seasonal forecasts I've seen are flat out furnaces in the east. That and the surprisingly cold forecasts by at least the Cansips and Jamstec make me at least optimistic for a few snow chances considering the AN precip along the coast by most models.

It's crazy how people are triggered by the mere mention of certain seasons as analogs....,most of us have been at this for like 20+ years, you would think at some point they would wrap their mind around how analogs are used. If you have noticed, any seasonal met worth a damn often uses an assortment of snowy, cold seasons AND warm seasons featuring a dearth of snowfall. Just because the forecasters deems a season to have enough value to warrant its' inclusion does NOT imply a replica season in its' entirety is being forecasted. The most glaring and detestable flaw I continue to see amongst weather circles is the inability to perceive any nuance, and constantly view everything as black and white. Social media isn't helping this issue, rather it's exacerbating it. The tweets that are engineered to draw attention to the 2009-2010 analog are the problem, but that clearly that isn't being done or implied here. 

[michsnowfreak]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Won't be a record year, save the highest elevations. No one has said otherwise.  But it's incredible how just posting model progs can cause such a stir. 

But as I said in my post to Michigan, no seasonal forecasts I've seen are flat out furnaces in the east. That and the surprisingly cold forecasts by at least the Cansips and Jamstec make me at least optimistic for a few snow chances considering the AN precip along the coast by most models.

This is whats interesting to me. I fully expect a milder than avg winter here, as ive said multiple times. However, the fact that a few models are showing cold, and even the milder models aren't anywhere near a furnace, is a red flag for those (we know who they are) who assume super nino means super furnace. Remember, these same models are all showing the strong/super nino, and nino climo is already in these models, are not showing blazing warmthm

[michsnowfreak]

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The northeast doesn't need a cold winter for decent snowfall, but I agree that it won't be cold. 2010-2011 was actually one of the best seasons on record up here.

Exactly. Sometimes the difference between anamolies and absolutes get lost in the translation. A low snow winter in detroit is still snowier than a snowy winter in Albuquerque. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

If you actually look at the JMA model, it actually has the warmest pocket of water pretty near where the east-based composite has it, but it's extending the El Niño very far to the west so that it has more of a Modoki look. It's actually similar to 2023-2024 did, but the forcing is a bit east, so it's a Modoki El Niño forcing rather than MC. That to me is a bit harder to dismiss as "stock ENSO bias". Go and check out the June 2023 forecast and it looked different. the fact that the CANSIPS is doing the same thing adds to the intrigue. 

Now, do I think that the seasonal mean will look like that with an El Niño this strong? No, I don't...too much wamth too far east. But do I think that we can get a month to look like that in the back half of the season? You bet I do-

[40/70 Benchmark]

Stop interpreting this guidance in such absolute terms because it's just that .....GUIDANCE. No forecaster worth a damn should be ripping and reading it, but rather using it as a tool.

[michsnowfreak]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's crazy how people are triggered by the mere mention of certain seasons as analogs....,most of us have been at this for like 20+ years, you would think at some point they would wrap their mind around how analogs are used. If you have noticed, any seasonal met worth a damn often uses an assortment of snowy, cold seasons AND warm seasons featuring a dearth of snowfall. Just because the forecasters deems a season to have enough value to warrant its' inclusion does NOT imply a replica season in its' entirety is being forecasted. The most glaring and detestable flaw I continue to see amongst weather circles is the inability to perceive any nuance, and constantly view everything as black and white. Social media isn't helping this issue, rather it's exacerbating it. The tweets that are engineered to draw attention to the 2009-2010 analog are the problem, but that clearly that isn't being done or implied here. 

I consider myself to have a lot of weather knowledge...but i dont forecast. Definitely respect those who do so, particularly without much bias. 

I have a preference, not a bias. I worry that preference would create a bias if I tried to forecast, so I dont. Say its mid winter and every model shows warmth the next two weeks. I know its going to be warm, so instead of trying to find something to say all models will be wrong, or try to find a reason why it will be warm when i thought it would be cold.....no...im going to deal with it, see if we will squeeze snow out of it, and look beyind the warm spell. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I consider myself to have a lot of weather knowledge...but i dont forecast. Definitely respect those who do so, particularly without much bias. 

I have a preference, not a bias. I worry that preference would create a bias if I tried to forecast, so I dont. Say its mid winter and every model shows warmth the next two weeks. I know its going to be warm, so instead of trying to find something to say all models will be wrong, or try to find a reason why it will be warm when i thought it would be cold.....no...im going to deal with it, see if we will squeeze snow out of it, and look beyind the warm spell. 

I have a bias...it's human nature. If anything, I have overcompensated the past couple of years and it's probably at least in part why I didn't go as cold as my narrative implied last year when I clearly should have.