2026-2027 El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

18 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The only time we got wet was the Nor'easter in the closing days of April, which brought a lot of rain the weekend of the 28th-30th. Other than that, late winter and spring 2023 was dry, with May being the driest on record. Late June and early July is when it got wet.

I remember models were showing a lot of moisture, for several weeks. Maybe it didn't pan out. I'm also talking about for the whole US. 

[snowman19]

[dmillz25]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

What are your thoughts thus far about where this niño could be headed? Basin wide strong seems like it could be in the works but obviously its still too early to know

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

What are your thoughts thus far about where this niño could be headed? Basin wide strong seems like it could be in the works but obviously its still too early to know

IMO this is going to be a high-end strong El Niño at minimum with the chances of a super event growing very quickly

[snowman19]

The “triplet” TC’s on both sides of the hemisphere is happening. They are starting to form. This is going to spark off yet another massive WWB and DWKW. The models are also doubling down on westerlies taking over in the ENSO regions later on this month. This is already starting to look like it’s going to be a record-breaking tropical storm/typhoon season in the PAC….
 

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The “triplet” TC’s on both sides of the hemisphere is happening. They are starting to form. This is going to spark off yet another massive WWB and DWKW. The models are also doubling down on westerlies taking over in the ENSO regions later on this month. This is already starting to look like it’s going to be a record-breaking tropical storm/typhoon season in the PAC….
 

Which models show westerlies "taking over" Enso regions? I ask because after the pending trades and westerly burst, Cfs2 brings back the trades starting around the last week in May. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I guess experimentation is over...

CPC adopts Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) for reliable, responsive monitoring and tracking of ENSO (11 Feb 2026)

[snowman19]

Which models show westerlies "taking over" Enso regions? I ask because after the pending trades and westerly burst, Cfs2 brings back the trades starting around the last week in May. 

[jaxjagman]

There was a WB back into 2023 around the same time from a Rossby Wave.There was also another RW in Mid May

JAMSTEC Mean shows the DMI rising into fall almost to +1.5 ATM,but  when the DMI rises like this ,this is typical the norm you see more or less  NINA the following year,least it's been like this the last several decades

[mitchnick]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Right. That doesn't conflict with what I said that we have a pending trade and then westerly burst. But I was talking about a return of trades after the westerly burst near the end of May. He skipped over that and says maybe another westerly burst in June. I was under the impression with your post that there were models other than the Cfs2 that showed westerly winds maintaining beginning with the westerly burst starting April 17th or so and beyond  that pushes east of the dateline. 

And by the way, the maps in that last link you posted in Deoras' post are old. One is from 3/19 and the other is dated 3/18 (check the solid black line on the maps that say "Begin forecast period"...don't know why his 4/3 post would do that. If interested, the current maps are at the link below along with the current Cfs2 forecast that goes out into June that he references.

https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html

[GaWx]

March PDO: -1.44 down from -1 in Feb

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

March PDO: -1.44 down from -1 in Feb

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/

Not any ENSO correlation.. slight PDO +correlation to the following Dec. A lot of general +SSTA correlation to +PDO and -SSTA correlation to -PDO

Following Jan has 0.4 PDO warm/cold pool correlation.. PDO sustains like 63% of the time

[snowman19]

For the first time in a long time, a high amp, strong MJO wave is projected to move into phases 7 and 8 come mid-month

[bluewave]

On 3/31/2026 at 3:39 PM, bluewave said:

Will be interesting to see the Euro seasonal Nino 3.4 forecast on April 5th once it initializes this event. Wouldn’t be surprised if it increases Nino 3.4 temperatures from the March 5th update. If we get these WWBs continuing and not reversing like we saw in June 2014, then this could be our first two events reaching at least +2.0 C on the ONI scale and around 28.57 C only three years apart. 
 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt

NDJ 2023  28.57   2.06

NDJ 2015  29.26   2.75

OND 1997  29.02   2.40

NDJ 1982  28.76   2.23

NDJ 1972  28.54   2.12

 

On 4/1/2026 at 8:47 AM, bluewave said:

Will be interesting to see if the Euro April 5th release turns out to be as reliable as its El Niño forecast issued back in April 2023.

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2023-April-quick-look/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table

 

The April update is stronger than its forecast at the same time in 2023. My guess this is due to the initialization of the OHC and near to record current WWB.

So it will be interesting to see if we continue these WWBs into the summer. Since we are still in the spring forecast barrier period.

In any event, this would be a very significant development for the planet to have 2 events of +2.0 ONI or greater only 3 years apart. So the El Nino progress will have potentially much wider ramifications than just what happens next winter.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

JFM 2026 RONI -0.7

JFM 2026 ONI -0.2

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

 

The April update is stronger than its forecast at the same time in 2023. My guess this is due to the initialization of the OHC and near to record current WWB.

So it will be interesting to see if we continue these WWBs into the summer. Since we are still in the spring forecast barrier period.

In any event, this would be a very significant development for the planet to have 2 events of +2.0 ONI or greater only 3 years apart. So the El Nino progress will have potentially much wider ramifications than just what happens next winter.

 

Thanks, Chris.

 1. The April run comes in a bit stronger for ONI than the Mar run for the same months compared. For example, the Mar run had Sep at ~+2.1 vs the Apr run having Sep at ~+2.25. So, that’s clearly a bullish trend since the prior run for a stronger ONI.

2. RONI is still ~0.5 cooler than ONI. So, ~0.5 still needs to be subtracted off of the Euro output to approximate its implied RONI prog.

3. It’s important to still keep in mind a longterm warm bias of the Euro ONI progs based on the avg of ~20 years of progs though those that verify as El Niño have averaged a lower warm bias.

 Examples:

-the April ‘17 run progged moderate El Niño (+1.1) for ASO (see below) vs it verifying way down at -0.3 for ONI, a whopping +1.4 miss. That’s an extreme, of course, but one doesn’t find misses anywhere near that same magnitude the other way. In addition, the April ‘14 run had ASO up at +1.5 vs verification of only +0.3, another big miss of +1.2. Furthermore, the April ‘12 run had ASO up at +1.0 vs verification of only +0.4 for a +0.6 miss.

 Some recent April run ASO ONI misses have also been large to the too warm side:

-2025: ASO prog of +0.4 vs actual of -0.4 for miss of +0.8

 

-2022: ASO prog of -0.3 vs actual of -1.0 for miss of +0.7

 

-2021: ASO prog of 0 vs actual of -0.6 for a miss of +0.6

 

2020: ASO prog of -0.1 vs actual of -0.9 for a miss of +0.8

 

 So, based on the -0.5 RONI adj. and the notable Euro warm bias, the actual RONI peak could easily verify as only a moderate peak. My current wild guess is for low to middle end strong RONI peak.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

 

The April update is stronger than its forecast at the same time in 2023. My guess this is due to the initialization of the OHC and near to record current WWB.

So it will be interesting to see if we continue these WWBs into the summer. Since we are still in the spring forecast barrier period.

In any event, this would be a very significant development for the planet to have 2 events of +2.0 ONI or greater only 3 years apart. So the El Nino progress will have potentially much wider ramifications than just what happens next winter.

 

This is starting to look like the “perfect storm” for causing a Bjerknes feedback loop/coupling to develop, which would cause this El Niño to become self-sustaining and self-reinforcing. We have the current record WWB/DWKW, coupled with the projected high amp, strong MJO wave propagating into the Pacific also supporting westerlies in the ENSO regions, a very strong +PMM, a developing +IOD and the “triplet” TC’s/typhoons in the PAC (causing another massive WWB/DWKW behind them)….

[snowman19]

Verbatim, showing a very strong +IOD developing, along with a continued ++PMM…
 

[roardog]

At least this year snowman19 has something tangible to hang his hat on to get a warm winter. By last fall he had relegated to posting 3,127 tweets about high solar. lol

[snowman19]

At least this year snowman19 has something tangible to hang his hat on to get a warm winter. By last fall he had relegated to posting 3,127 tweets about high solar. lol

You remind me of Patrick Star from SpongeBob SquarePants

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Thanks, Chris.

 1. The April run comes in a bit stronger for ONI than the Mar run for the same months compared. For example, the Mar run had Sep at ~+2.1 vs the Apr run having Sep at ~+2.25. So, that’s clearly a bullish trend since the prior run for a stronger ONI.

2. RONI is still ~0.5 cooler than ONI. So, ~0.5 still needs to be subtracted off of the Euro output to approximate its implied RONI prog.

3. It’s important to still keep in mind a longterm warm bias of the Euro ONI progs based on the avg of ~20 years of progs though those that verify as El Niño have averaged a lower warm bias.

 Examples:

-the April ‘17 run progged moderate El Niño (+1.1) for ASO (see below) vs it verifying way down at -0.3 for ONI, a whopping +1.4 miss. That’s an extreme, of course, but one doesn’t find misses anywhere near that same magnitude the other way. In addition, the April ‘14 run had ASO up at +1.5 vs verification of only +0.3, another big miss of +1.2. Furthermore, the April ‘12 run had ASO up at +1.0 vs verification of only +0.4 for a +0.6 miss.

 Some recent April run ASO ONI misses have also been large to the too warm side:

-2025: ASO prog of +0.4 vs actual of -0.4 for miss of +0.8

 

-2022: ASO prog of -0.3 vs actual of -1.0 for miss of +0.7

 

-2021: ASO prog of 0 vs actual of -0.6 for a miss of +0.6

 

2020: ASO prog of -0.1 vs actual of -0.9 for a miss of +0.8

 

 So, based on the -0.5 RONI adj. and the notable Euro warm bias, the actual RONI peak could easily verify as only a moderate peak. My current wild guess is for low to middle end strong RONI peak.

Back in 2023-2024 there was a pretty big spread between ONI and RONI. The ONI peaked at +2.1 C and the RONI at +1.5 C .Yet the 500 mb pattern across the Northern Tier and Canada was similar to 1997-1998 with the CONUS setting the warmest winter on record.

Perhaps the weaker RONI was related to the lack of a robust Nino trough across Mid-Atlantic and Southeast and weaker Aleutian Low.

Plus we got a big global temperature super El Niño baseline jump even higher than 1997-1998 and 2015-2016. Also note the global temperatures hardly fell in 2025.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Most extreme March NAO on record, +2.69. The composite is actually a cooler May, when rolled forward.

Just interesting - look at all this equilateral warmth later in the year, correlating with March +NAO

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Back in 2023-2024 there was a pretty big spread between ONI and RONI. The ONI peaked at +2.1 C and the RONI at +1.5 C .Yet the 500 mb pattern across the Northern Tier and Canada was similar to 1997-1998 with the CONUS setting the warmest winter on record.

Perhaps the weaker RONI was related to the lack of a robust Nino trough across Mid-Atlantic and Southeast and weaker Aleutian Low.

Plus we got a big global temperature super El Niño baseline jump even higher than 1997-1998 and 2015-2016. Also note the global temperatures hardly fell in 2025.

That's my concern 2023...but then again, I'm not sure winter enthusiasts would feen any better if the RONI and ONI were in lock-step.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Back in 2023-2024 there was a pretty big spread between ONI and RONI. The ONI peaked at +2.1 C and the RONI at +1.5 C .Yet the 500 mb pattern across the Northern Tier and Canada was similar to 1997-1998 with the CONUS setting the warmest winter on record.

Perhaps the weaker RONI was related to the lack of a robust Nino trough across Mid-Atlantic and Southeast and weaker Aleutian Low.

N. Pacific is ENSO's greatest correlation

East-based shifts the Canadian ridge more east

[snowman19]

Wow….

[roardog]

This is really going to be fascinating to watch. If we didn’t have that very strong Nino in 23-24, I think I would be fully on board for a super Nino this year. If we would have had a strong Nina in the last two years I might even be reluctantly on board. However, since we never get such a strong Nino so close in years, it just makes me feel like something is going to fail that the models can’t see right now. In 2022 we even had the MEI get down to something like -2.2 which made a rebound strong Nino seem likely. We have nothing like that this year. 

[brooklynwx99]

gotta pass the spring barrier. this is like a 10 day EPS forecast but for ENSO at this point in the year

[GaWx]

39 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Wow….
 

To get the strongest Nino in 140 years, the ONI would probably need to get up to ~3.0 to allow RONI to exceed the 2.5 RONI peak of 1982-3 and thus become the strongest since 1887-8. Keep in mind the Euro longterm warm bias that could possibly be causing its April prog to be too warm.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

49 minutes ago, roardog said:

This is really going to be fascinating to watch. If we didn’t have that very strong Nino in 23-24, I think I would be fully on board for a super Nino this year. If we would have had a strong Nina in the last two years I might even be reluctantly on board. However, since we never get such a strong Nino so close in years, it just makes me feel like something is going to fail that the models can’t see right now. In 2022 we even had the MEI get down to something like -2.2 which made a rebound strong Nino seem likely. We have nothing like that this year. 

5 of the last 6 years have been Nina. The average RONI for last 6 years is -0.73c/yr

[roardog]

21 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

5 of the last 6 years have been Nina. The average RONI for last 6 years is -0.73c/yr

How much do the Nina years prior to 23-24 matter though? Wouldn’t that very strong Nino essentially “reset” that?