Feb 4-5 significant SE snow threat

[olafminesaw]

The Euro AI has been very consistent in showing a maximum along the VA border 

[bigjohndc]

1 hour ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Good luck NC/VA peeps

Well if I can't get rain to thaw my driveway for the first time in 10 days. Might as well add some to the season total.

[Stebaney]

I have to give [mention=17109]NorthHillsWx[/mention] credit for jumping into this one after the dry slot event. I wish i had that approach. 

Not all of us in RDU area got screwed. I ended up with almost 7”. I am in Knightdale and evidently stayed under this band of really heavy snow that was accumulating an inch an hour.

[EarlGrey]

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

Alright well fuck it. Here is the 18z Euro:

This can make up for the dry slot in the last storm. Then let’s get to spring time.

[NorthHillsWx]

5 minutes ago, Stebaney said:

Not all of us in RDU area got screwed. I ended up with almost 7”. I am in Knightdale and evidently stayed under this band of really heavy snow that was accumulating an inch an hour.

Happy for you! That band was great but we only had it for 1 hour. Eastern side of county did better. Actually made it worse for those of us who got shafted by it

[Stebaney]

Happy for you! That band was great but we only had it for 1 hour. Eastern side of county did better. Actually made it worse for those of us who got shafted by it

Yeah I get it. I remember a few years ago sitting here watching a dry slot that was literally just over the town of Knightdale. I don’t post much on this board and I’ve been here for over 15 years, but the majority of my posts are from that day. I was so pissed off.

[NorthHillsWx]

NAM super amped, pretty legit storm NE NC and SE VA

[PackGrad05]

HRRR only goes out to 7PM Wednesday night but has a little snow.  Both the NAM3K and HRRR did well with the last system.

Nam3k is a little wintry mix but mostly north of wake

[BornAgain13]

Anyone have the weather next from 8 pm?

[Dunkman]

25 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Anyone have the weather next from 8 pm?

I think maybe it’s on stormvista?

[WEATHER53]

Mid Atlantic guy but I was in last threads and you guys go nuts again and I think we will again Plus we really can’t warm up because south winds over your snowpack meets our snowcrete!

[GaWx]

0Z Euro targets RDU with a nice hit:

 

[Coach McGuirk]

Who knows, these days.  Could be something or nothing. 

[BornAgain13]

Most guidance continues to show this threat. Still some discrepancy on where the best totals will be but it looks like to me the highest totals would be 3" wherever that sets up. Everywhere else it looks like a 0.5-2" at most. 

[olafminesaw]

Definitely seeing most models back off a bit this morning. Still a decent threat north of the VA border. A dusting to half an inch possible North of 85 and may include the Triangle if everything goes right 

[SUNYGRAD]

 

 

 

General idea here in Triad area at moment.  

 

[eyewall]

9 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Definitely seeing most models back off a bit this morning. Still a decent threat north of the VA border. A dusting to half an inch possible North of 85 and may include the Triangle if everything goes right 

I think next winter the models will be re-programmed with the reality that it doesn't snow in Wake County. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[UnionCountyNCWX]

23 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

This gonna be a thread for VA flurries by tomorrow lol (still hoping Wake gets something, fingers crossed)

[WXNewton]

6z GFS

[PackGrad05]

GFS, Euro, HRRR, NAM all pretty much agree that this is a trace - 1" event for Wake.
The biggest concern is that temperatures crash into the upper 20s right in time for the morning commute with residual moisture everywhere.

6Z EPS probabilities for RDU.  ~70% chance of a trace, ~20% chance of 1".   These aren't as high as they were yesterday but did increase slightly over the 00Z

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[olafminesaw]

44 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

GFS, Euro, HRRR, NAM all pretty much agree that this is a trace - 1" event for Wake.
The biggest concern is that temperatures crash into the upper 20s right in time for the morning commute with residual moisture everywhere.

6Z EPS probabilities for RDU.  ~70% chance of a trace, ~20% chance of 1".   These aren't as high as they were yesterday but did increase slightly over the 00Z

Some models showing a little light ZR as well. The pavement will still be holding some of the cold we've had especially in the shade so roads could certainly be slick

[BornAgain13]

The RRFS A and RGEM are a good hit up this way. 

[WXNewton]

3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

The RRFS A and RGEM are a good hit up this way. 

Just getting ready to post snowfall maps on those ...

[olafminesaw]

One reason we are seeing less potential in NC is a small warm nose showing up on short range models. It was looking like a changeover to snow at around 35 yesterday but now right around freezing for the changeover with some ZR mixed in

[ADB83]

One reason we are seeing less potential in NC is a small warm nose showing up on short range models. It was looking like a changeover to snow at around 35 yesterday but now right around freezing for the changeover with some ZR mixed in

North Carolina should trademark the warm nose, no state owns it or does it like the Tar Heel state! We are the home of the warm nose.


.

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, ADB83 said:

North Carolina should trademark the warm nose, no state owns it or does it like the Tar Heel state! We are the home of the warm nose.


.

Actually I would say Eastern Tennessee is the King of the warm nose and North Carolina is the court Jester

[olafminesaw]

Some pretty insane banding showing up on the hires RGEM

[NorthHillsWx]

4 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Some pretty insane banding showing up on the hires RGEM

Someone gets 4” and a couple streets over flurries lol