Feb 4-5 significant SE snow threat

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

I think the key is "certainly worth monitoring." It has potential to be a small to moderate event. 

This is a little different than the cold chasing moisture event a couple weeks ago. In this case the front has already passed through and there’s a secondary LP developing in the colder air. The airmass isn’t nearly as cold as the last couple we’ve used and it’s always delayed over the mountains but I wouldn’t call this a “classic” case of cold chasing moisture 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

13 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

Rgem has some 5-6 in totals now in northern Central NC!

Great Caesar’s Ghost!

[NorthHillsWx]

4 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Someone may get NAM’d tomorrow afternoon.  

It seemed to my faulty memory that secondary lows were common in the 70s and they were always good for a couple of inches.  

If current trends continue someone will get EURO’d tonight lol

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[BornAgain13]

18 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

This is a little different than the cold chasing moisture event a couple weeks ago. In this case the front has already passed through and there’s a secondary LP developing in the colder air. The airmass isn’t nearly as cold as the last couple we’ve used and it’s always delayed over the mountains but I wouldn’t call this a “classic” case of cold chasing moisture 

I agree with this. 

[BornAgain13]

18z GFS increases a little more from 12z.

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS also improved at 500. Much more expansive precip 

[olafminesaw]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS also improved at 500. Much more expensive precip 

Yeah it's great to see that we could get accumulating snow even with the less amplified solutions knowing that a more amplified look would increase rates and crash temps even faster. That is, if the trough can stay sufficiently far south

[olafminesaw]

The AI GFS looks nice too

[WXNewton]

Trend on 18z GFS is there for sure! This thing is looking good for border counties into S.VA

[marsman]

35 minutes ago, Snowncanes said:

I agree with RAH this is a classic cold chasing moisture. Just like 3 weekends ago. I’ll believe it when I see it lol. Youre not sucking me in again 

Yep. 15 minutes of snow after hours of rain. 

[BornAgain13]

When does the next WeatherNext come out.?

[NorthHillsWx]

AI Models look really good

[ADB83]

When does the next WeatherNext come out.?

Usually about 8 PM.


.

[BornAgain13]

18z GEFS solid again with a slight uptick 

[WXNewton]

Good trends on 500 mb energy. Almost went neutral this run.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

It’s funny because this upcoming possibility was showing on models last Wednesday or Thursday, then sort of declined over the next couple of days, only to come back yesterday

[NorthHillsWx]

13 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

Good trends on 500 mb energy. Almost went neutral this run.

Getting close to something more significant there…

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

15 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Getting close to something more significant there…

Ensembles hinted at this snow potential for a while albeit positive tilt. 

[NorthHillsWx]

17 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

Ensembles hinted at this snow potential for a while albeit positive tilt. 

Yea they have. Recent runs have been slightly less positive tilt though and we’re seeing a slower progression/more backing of the precip bc of it

[PackGrad05]

1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

It’s funny because this upcoming possibility was showing on models last Wednesday or Thursday, then sort of declined over the next couple of days, only to come back yesterday

Had it not been for the last storm, we would have been obsessing over this one all week.  We all kind of forgot about it haha

[WXNewton]

6 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Had it not been for the last storm, we would have been obsessing over this one all week.  We all kind of forgot about it haha

Now we can just obsess over it for 2.5 days instead!

[eyewall]

Alright well fuck it. Here is the 18z Euro:

[WXNewton]

18z Euro...trended the last 3 runs

[BooneWX]

I took a break today from the forum and come back to a thread pages deep about this storm. Ain’t mad at it! Let’s eat again before the pattern relaxes!

[ADB83]

I took a break today from the forum and come back to a thread pages deep about this storm. Ain’t mad at it! Let’s eat again before the pattern relaxes!

Welcome back! Yeah, I think last good chance here for a bit as we look like we’re gonna warm up mid month. Have to get it while you can. I’ll take another inch and not complain. Maybe Raleigh can squeeze two or three they deserve it.


.

[JoshM]

Here we go again … 

 

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Im f*ing exhausted but lets run this back. Thought we had a break from model watching, this winter has been nuts. Raleigh needs the 18z euro like peanut butter needs jelly

[JoshM]

GFS is latching onto a little lee enhancement over the southern Piedmont. Stop me if you’ve seen this before 

[buckeyefan1]

Good luck NC/VA peeps