Feb 4-5 significant SE snow threat

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

I think the key is "certainly worth monitoring." It has potential to be a small to moderate event. 

This is a little different than the cold chasing moisture event a couple weeks ago. In this case the front has already passed through and there’s a secondary LP developing in the colder air. The airmass isn’t nearly as cold as the last couple we’ve used and it’s always delayed over the mountains but I wouldn’t call this a “classic” case of cold chasing moisture 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

13 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

Rgem has some 5-6 in totals now in northern Central NC!

Great Caesar’s Ghost!

[NorthHillsWx]

4 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Someone may get NAM’d tomorrow afternoon.  

It seemed to my faulty memory that secondary lows were common in the 70s and they were always good for a couple of inches.  

If current trends continue someone will get EURO’d tonight lol

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[BornAgain13]

18 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

This is a little different than the cold chasing moisture event a couple weeks ago. In this case the front has already passed through and there’s a secondary LP developing in the colder air. The airmass isn’t nearly as cold as the last couple we’ve used and it’s always delayed over the mountains but I wouldn’t call this a “classic” case of cold chasing moisture 

I agree with this. 

[BornAgain13]

18z GFS increases a little more from 12z.

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS also improved at 500. Much more expansive precip 

[olafminesaw]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS also improved at 500. Much more expensive precip 

Yeah it's great to see that we could get accumulating snow even with the less amplified solutions knowing that a more amplified look would increase rates and crash temps even faster. That is, if the trough can stay sufficiently far south

[olafminesaw]

The AI GFS looks nice too

[WXNewton]

Trend on 18z GFS is there for sure! This thing is looking good for border counties into S.VA

[marsman]

35 minutes ago, Snowncanes said:

I agree with RAH this is a classic cold chasing moisture. Just like 3 weekends ago. I’ll believe it when I see it lol. Youre not sucking me in again 

Yep. 15 minutes of snow after hours of rain. 

[BornAgain13]

When does the next WeatherNext come out.?

[NorthHillsWx]

AI Models look really good

[ADB83]

When does the next WeatherNext come out.?

Usually about 8 PM.


.

[BornAgain13]

18z GEFS solid again with a slight uptick 

[WXNewton]

Good trends on 500 mb energy. Almost went neutral this run.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

It’s funny because this upcoming possibility was showing on models last Wednesday or Thursday, then sort of declined over the next couple of days, only to come back yesterday

[NorthHillsWx]

13 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

Good trends on 500 mb energy. Almost went neutral this run.

Getting close to something more significant there…

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

15 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Getting close to something more significant there…

Ensembles hinted at this snow potential for a while albeit positive tilt. 

[NorthHillsWx]

17 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

Ensembles hinted at this snow potential for a while albeit positive tilt. 

Yea they have. Recent runs have been slightly less positive tilt though and we’re seeing a slower progression/more backing of the precip bc of it