WxUSAF's weak ass frontal passage thing.

[Nomz]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

You really could live your life only looking at the Euro & EPS and be pretty satisfied. Throw in the HRRR and the 3k in the really short and short ranges.

no JMA?

[SnowenOutThere]

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

There’s always a northern band!

Preparing to get hosed in DC, but that’s fine, I guess. Likely not missing much

Game ended and walked out into (would you believe it) more light rain. I think it’s snowing up on Shenandoah though! 

[wasnow215]

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

You really could live your life only looking at the Euro & EPS and be pretty satisfied. Throw in the HRRR and the 3k in the really short and short ranges.

Serious question… With the HRRR how many hours out do you think we're safe where it's pretty good? I'm trying to broaden my horizons lol

[NorthArlington101]

Game ended and walked out into (would you believe it) more light rain. I think it’s snowing up on Shenandoah though! 

Good win at least!

[NorthArlington101]

Serious question… With the HRRR how many hours out do you think we're safe where it's pretty good? I'm trying to broaden my horizons lol

Maybe 6? It’s really better for severe. Winter definitely isn’t its place, imo.

[stormtracker]

Good job @WxUSAF

[MillvilleWx]

11 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Serious question… With the HRRR how many hours out do you think we're safe where it's pretty good? I'm trying to broaden my horizons lol

HRRR is best when it's inside 8 hrs, but can more useful up to 12 hrs if it is assimilating the data correctly. It has its struggles with certain setups and is best within convective environments or well-established thermal environments. Winter is not its strong suit, but can be useful at times. Right now, regional CAMs are better at handling this type of setup. Best ascent has been modeled south through the day, but some very light precip is still plausible north of I-66,  but not looking likely at this point. 

[LeesburgWx]

We suck.

Edit: I’m chasing wind and more flurries for Friday/Saturday now.

[SnowenOutThere]

15 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Good win at least!

Switched to light snow as I went from the JPJ lowlands to my dorm back at 600ft plus. Super elevation dependent or just convenient timing who knows. 

[high risk]

4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

HRRR is best when it's inside 8 hrs, but can more useful up to 12 hrs if it is assimilating the data correctly. It has its struggles with certain setups and is best within convective environments or well-established thermal environments. Winter is not its strong suit, but can be useful at times. Right now, regional CAMs are better at handling this type of setup. Best ascent has been modeled south through the day, but some very light precip is still plausible north of I-66,  but not looking likely at this point. 

 

       VERY well stated.   The HRRR is generally pretty good with warm season convection (minus some flaws and the inherent challenges with modeling weakly-forced storms) but has never proven itself as a winter weather model.

[Nomz]

14 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

HRRR is best when it's inside 8 hrs, but can more useful up to 12 hrs if it is assimilating the data correctly. It has its struggles with certain setups and is best within convective environments or well-established thermal environments. Winter is not its strong suit, but can be useful at times. Right now, regional CAMs are better at handling this type of setup. Best ascent has been modeled south through the day, but some very light precip is still plausible north of I-66,  but not looking likely at this point. 

Re: assimilating data correctly

Completely unrelated, but it should show how important proper initialization is. Before June 20th (Enderlin EF5 day), most models were very consistent in showing zero prefrontal development in the potent warm sector due to very warm 700mb temperatures. However, the night before, the HRRR was the only one consistently initializing temps. Other models were running 1-2 °C too warm, which obviously led to incorrectly choking out prefrontal development. Because the HRRR was correctly initializing cooler, it was consistently showing robust prefrontal development ~18 hours pre-event, while it took the other models till mere hours before to start showing prefrontal development. If you follow svwx you know what happened later that day...

[GreyHat]

Nothing here

Temps rise to 31

Pre treatment rds waste 

Need the rain next weekend to wash this crap off the  rds

[RevWarReenactor]

Great event

got nothing 

[WxUSAF]

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Officially a Trace on the snowboard, with 0.01” in the gauge. Day 11 of snow depth, which is currently at 3.3” and still hasn’t moved much, despite being above freezing the last two days.

[dailylurker]

28 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I went outside at 11 and the sky was almost clear lol.