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February 2026 General Discussion


Spartman
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The three weeks from Jan 18 to Feb 7 being the 2nd coldest stretch, and #1 coldest for around Cleveland, Saginaw, a couple spots in Michigan, and some of the Mid-Atlantic. The value of 12.1 degrees F at Toledo is comparable to the 2nd and 3rd coldest months here, Feb 78 and Feb 2015. However, comparing a specific 21-day period to one calendar month is a little bit of comparing apples to oranges. In this case, I guess I would be comparing this 21-day value to a full 28-day long month of February, as mentioned.

 

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Went to Lake Erie Metropark late this afternoon. Frozen Lake Erie is a beautiful scene. 

Great Lakes ice coverage peaked at 54.8% this week. After a near average winter in 2024-25, this winter ice coverage is solidly above the historical average around 40%. Superior is now half covered, with Erie nearly 100% covered. 

The Erie ice is 12-28" thick near the Detroit River.

https://bridgemi.com/michigan-environment-watch/ice-grips-great-lakes-with-erie-nearly-fully-covered/

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Looking good. With lots of ice floating around the W side of L Superior, the temps over the Lake will be colder with warmer air running over the top (WAA) during the early part of the stm. Dry air might be an issue to start tho. Always do well along the shoreline with these conditions. Inland should do really well with oro lifting along the ridges. Strong E winds at the surface with strong SE winds at the mid level. LP weakens with a trough lingering, and a new LP moving in to the S sub, will keep an ENE to NE flow off the Lake, so lighter snows should linger thru Friday. Possible LES banding is in the mix then, and wherever they form could be a significant hit. 

Snow potential.png

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5 hours ago, DocATL said:

I mean the MJO phase 4, positive NAO and AO positive, PNA negative…I mean…not a great set up for snow unless I’m totally off base here.

there's a lag time with the mjo.

we're currently feeling the effect of the passage through phases 6-7 to end january.

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