Is we back? February discussion thread

[CoastalWx]

17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Hope so. IMBY if we have seen the last of the snow it would only be a C+ winter.

Everyone is dropping their pants to this winter, but if you take the snow goggles off, it’s surprising we only had one good storm and that took a gulf low ramming into an arctic dome. Think about that for a second. 

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It looks like the EURO is all N stream, while the s stream escapes waaaaaay OTS like a lot guidance right now. UK allows the S stream to come and phase with the N stream at the quiescently perfect time for NE. My guess is it ends up mainly N stream and another light to moderate ordeal.

It almost seems like the inverse western CONUS ridging this time since the ridge is more in plains. The UK allows the s stream to come up bc it doesn't dig as much since the western ridge erodes faster. The Euro buries it because it has a bit more ridging.

It does look like another one of these events where it is going to snow Sunday/Monday but probably not a big one and one models won’t ramp up until Thursday / Friday 

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Loving the 60s/70s showing up on GFS.. 

Is there a 200% button?

[CoastalWx]

I will say we had pretty much the various type of winter events from squalls, to inv troughs, to clippers, to SWFE. We just have not had a legit coastal. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Until Sunday/Sunday night 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I will say we had pretty much the various type of winter events from squalls, to inv troughs, to clippers, to SWFE. We just have not had a legit coastal. 

I thought there would be more SWFE’s this year.  

[Scott Koziara]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Everyone is dropping their pants to this winter, but if you take the snow goggles off, it’s surprising we only had one good storm and that took a gulf low ramming into an arctic dome. Think about that for a second. 

Great point. Outside of a single, great event this season has had a lot of low impact fluff-jobs as Dick Albert used to say. Saturday was the ultimate stat-padder.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I thought there would be more SWFE’s this year.  

Same....especially in December. I thought December would be full of SWFEs.

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I will say we had pretty much the various type of winter events from squalls, to inv troughs, to clippers, to SWFE. We just have not had a legit coastal.

This was exactly what I was thinking this morning when looking at this ... 

5 weeks of predominantly +PNA ( with oscillation no less, a typically favorable behavior).  Yet, jack shit zilch squat response in specifically that. 

I know folks either don't understand this, or are sick of hearing it ... but, the over-arcing -AO that took place nearly collocated in time produced a velocity anomaly.  This is expressed in two ways ...well three.   1, the compression/intense planetary gradient immediately generates a high basal wind flow.   2, because of that ( lengthening U component in the Navier Strokes-it ) the wave function responds by speeding up the S/W wave speeds.  3, the patterns are "idiosyncratically unstable", a bit more complex.. 

Those are all indirect/non-lineary negative interference constraints .. Everything else on your list were the constructively favored. 

I fully believe this has porked organized cyclogen from materializing out of the occasional hyper-bomb fantasia of the modeling cinema per the course. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

59 minutes ago, dendrite said:

GFS = Glue Factory System?

But kidding aside I think we all know that’s a pipedream in Feb…although you can’t rule out a semi warm day in there.

I did have 2018 in my February composite largely due to the strat, so I could see shorted-lived arm interval.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This was exactly what I was thinking this morning when looking at this ... 

5 weeks of predominantly +PNA ( with oscillation no less, a typically favorable behavior).  Yet, jack shit zilch squat response in specifically that. 

I know folks either don't understand this, or are sick of hearing it ... but, the over-arcing -AO that took place nearly collocated in time produced a velocity anomaly.  This is expressed in two ways ...well three.   1, the compression/intense planetary gradient immediately generates a high basal wind flow.   2, because of that ( lengthening U component in the Navier Strokes-it ) the wave function responds by speeding up the S/W wave speeds.  3, the patterns are "idiosyncratically unstable", a bit more complex.. 

Those are all indirect/non-lineary negative interference constraints. Everything else on your list, is  

I fully believe this has porked organized cyclogen from materializing out of the occasional hyper-bomb fantasia of the modeling cinema per the course. 

I think the majority understand it and are just sick of hearing it-

[Sey-Mour Snow]

37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Everyone is dropping their pants to this winter, but if you take the snow goggles off, it’s surprising we only had one good storm and that took a gulf low ramming into an arctic dome. Think about that for a second. 

100% - a ton of potential wasted with wall to wall cold .. and I had to watch the sleet line oscillate over my area during the one great storm.  Having no real snow last week of Jan and the first half of feb killed what could have been a great winter. If we are done with snow I’d still be below average for this winter.. but we still have a good 4 weeks left to stat pad after Valentine’s Day. 

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the majority understand it and are just sick of hearing it-

Maybe.  Not much evidence folks acknowledge or use it, tho, to necessarily constrain their "ebullient" response to modeling outlooks. 

Seems like ignoring an aspects because one is sick of hearing something isn't very mentally responsible. But I also suspect there's an aptitude gap there, too.

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

GFS = Glue Factory System?

But kidding aside I think we all know that’s a pipedream in Feb…although you can’t rule out a semi warm day in there.

Probably an every 5-10 year occurrence - who knows we are due.. GEFS/AIFSens are very warm in the Feb 16-22 timeframe , while the EPS/GEPS keep a pocket of seasonable temperatures over SNE

[dendrite]

40 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Is there a 200% button?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Maybe.  Not much evidence folks acknowledge or use it, tho, to necessarily constrain their "ebullient" response to modeling outlooks. 

Seems like ignoring an aspects because one is sick of hearing something isn't very mentally responsible. But I also suspect there's a aptitude gap there.

 

I mean, in a general sense, large sectors of our society do this, when it comes to truths that don’t fit our semi-idealistic narratives.  It seems like a bug that’s built into our software. Heh

[Chrisrotary12]

Anyone else notice how warm 35* felt with strong sunshine yesterday?

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Maybe.  Not much evidence folks acknowledge or use it, tho, to necessarily constrain their "ebullient" response to modeling outlooks. 

Seems like ignoring an aspects because one is sick of hearing something isn't very mentally responsible. But I also suspect there's an aptitude gap there, too.

 

Well, I mean....we are all storm enthusiasts....I know for me, I understand, but it's not like I ignore guidance because I'm mindful of fast flow. Anomalies happen.....so while east coast blizzards may be more of an endangered species these days, they aren't yet extinct. I don't think remaining ever vigilant and hopeful despite an understanding of the faster flow and current tropical forcing tendencies is necessarily indicative of "an aptitude gap".

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

Anyone else notice how warm 35* felt with strong sunshine yesterday?

Sitting in the car, in the school pick up line yesterday, I had the window down and the sun felt warm on my face.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I mean, in a general sense, large sectors of our society do this, when it comes to truths that don’t fit our semi-idealistic narratives.  It seems like a bug that’s built into our software. Heh

 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, I mean....we are all storm enthusiasts....I know for me, I understand, but it's not like I ignore guidance because I'm mindful of fast flow. Anomalies happen.....so while east coast blizzards may be more of an endangered species these days, they aren't yet extinct. I don't think remaining ever vigilant and hopeful despite an understanding of the faster flow and current tropical forcing tendencies is necessarily indicative of "an aptitude gap".

 

[WinterWolf]

59 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Everyone is dropping their pants to this winter, but if you take the snow goggles off, it’s surprising we only had one good storm and that took a gulf low ramming into an arctic dome. Think about that for a second. 

We had two here, 8-9” on 12/26 was a very good one.  And then the whopper.  And the deep cold for such a long time.  This has been very good here. So you can judge it the way you want obviously, but that doesn’t apply imo to what it’s been.  Overall it’s been very good. Could it have been even better, almost every season can.  2015 could have been a lot better here, but not so out east where it crushed. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Anyone else notice how warm 35* felt with strong sunshine yesterday?

Check-out motives are leaning, man... 

Another ad nauseum aspects folks hide their heads in a brown paper sack like a cat trying to evade a 5 year-old tail puller is that the sun is now formally ended winter. 

It's turned up the inflection out of the dish pan wattage and we are in the transition season - today being the first full day. It doesn't mean much in the dailies ... obviously big winter events can transpire into May in this piece of shit spring geography ... but, excluding those rarer returns, there is also a futility to looking at a winter event on guidance - for me anyway - that I cannot escape going forward.

Plus... winter and snow is not everyone's bag.  In here, if you voice visions of joy outside those confines ( and it is a prison of perception by the fuckin way ) it can be so liberating. LOL    no but I have a lot of outdoor stuff I enjoy too much.  That combined with the fact that it is really undeniable that the verification routinely falls short of this "model cinema" pastime/investing, patience wears thin by now.  And, right at the time the sun is noticeably brighter and hotter.  heh -

[mreaves]

11 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Anyone else notice how warm 35* felt with strong sunshine yesterday?

I did not.  Of course it only go to 20° here.

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

We had two here, 8-9” on 12/26 was a very good one.  And then the whopper.  And the deep cold for such a long time.  This has been very good here. So you can judge it the way you want obviously, but that doesn’t apply imo to what it’s been.  Overall it’s been very good. Could it have been even better, almost every season can.  2015 could have been a lot better here, but not so out east where it crushed. 

 

I’m not the only one who feels this way. Left some on the table.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I also feel as though the condescending tone isn't very helpful if the goal is increased acknowledgement and understanding....that turns people right the fu(k off....regardless of how true it is. You're basically telling people I'm right, so if you disagree, you're either an idiot and/or have serious psychological issues...now hear me out-

Like...alrighttttty then....

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Anyone else notice how warm 35* felt with strong sunshine yesterday?

It was 35 there yesterday?  Wow, that was a good temp …nice. Only got to 30 here. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Who doesn't understand that the sun is getting higher? Jesus....

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m not the only one who feels this way. Left some on the table.

You can feel anyway you want bro.  You missed the bigger amounts on 12/26. That crushed here, with fabulous rates, and was another cold system.  Between the small refreshers and the two bigger(one of them huge) systems, and the constant and brutal cold, and continuous deep cover…I feel it’s been quite a winter.  And it’s not done yet on Feb 10th.  
 

And I know lots who feel this way too. So it goes both ways. It’s all good. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Who doesn't understand that the sun is getting higher? Jesus....

I thought people learned that in 2015, when April was warm, and May torched. Are people saying that March is going to be colder than February, and April is going to be colder than March again?

The schools must be failing the children because I learned this in grade school.

For those who don't know, here's the general rule (for the Northern Hemisphere): The sun gets higher from about early January to early June, stays about steady (at the maximum) for a few weeks in June, then the sun goes lower from late June to early December, and stays about steady (at the minimum) from early December to early January. (In the southern hemisphere, this is reversed.)

[CoastalWx]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

You can feel anyway you want bro.  You missed the bigger amounts on 12/26. That crushed here, with fabulous rates, and was another cold system.  Between the small refreshers and the two bigger(one of them huge) systems, and the constant and brutal cold, and continuous deep cover…I feel it’s been quite a winter.  And it’s not done yet on Feb 10th.  
 

And I know lots who feel this way too. So it goes both ways. It’s all good. 

Meh many others commented too. If you told me coldest start to 96 and one good storm, I would have thought you were crazy. Never said it wasn’t good, but kind of yawn.