Is we back? February discussion thread

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely signs of some potential next weekend on ensembles.

 

midweek looks meh. Might be borderline temps too.

3 hours ago you said midweek looks good for SNE

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

3 hours ago you said midweek looks good for SNE

Looking at it more. Eh. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Looking at it more. Eh. 

Elevation or no?

[ORH_wxman]

Kind of a split flow look out west late next week and weekend with low heights over NE and SE Canada….

Both OP GEM and OP GFS don’t quite succeed but you can see the potential

 

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

3 hours ago you said midweek looks good for SNE

Lol…so true . The next run it’ll look solid again. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Lol…so true . The next run it’ll look solid again. 

I don’t see how that one is a Rainer . 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t see how that one is a Rainer . 

Both GFS and GEM try and rain here for that one…though there is sleet/ice on the front end. 
 

Skynet models have been consistently colder on that threat. 

[CoastalWx]

Low is pretty far north before moving SE so you can see how some models are showing a cold rain or mix. Euro AI is fairly cold but little precip. 

[ariof]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Both GFS and GEM try and rain here for that one…though there is sleet/ice on the front end. 
 

Skynet models have been consistently colder on that threat. 

As was the 06 GFS.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Low is pretty far north before moving SE so you can see how some models are showing a cold rain or mix. Euro AI is fairly cold but little precip. 

OP euro is pretty cold. Snow for almost all of SNE but it’s basically just a WAA band and not very much QPF.

Best QPF is actually NNE on euro. Maybe 1-2 SNE and 2-4 NNE. Paltry system. 

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Both GFS and GEM try and rain here for that one…though there is sleet/ice on the front end. 
 

Skynet models have been consistently colder on that threat. 

Yeah it just seems illogical that they show rain. Jumping hundreds of miles wildly run to run. Not likely .

 

 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

OP euro is pretty cold. Snow for almost all of SNE but it’s basically just a WAA band and not very much QPF.

Best QPF is actually NNE on euro. Maybe 1-2 SNE and 2-4 NNE. Paltry system. 

Nice system for 2/14.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

OP euro is pretty cold. Snow for almost all of SNE but it’s basically just a WAA band and not very much QPF.

Best QPF is actually NNE on euro. Maybe 1-2 SNE and 2-4 NNE. Paltry system. 

Yeah GFS tossed . Machines win again 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah GFS tossed . Machines win again 

Congrats on the coating

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nice system for 2/14.

Very similar to what I posted above about gem and GFS failing but the euro succeeds in getting it up here. It’s a classic -PNA/-NAO split flow look. They can work awesome for us at times. 
 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Congrats on the coating

2-4 with that look

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

2-4 with that look

Forecast 0-6” and you’ll be covered for that event. I’d hedge on the lower side for now though. Looks moisture-starved. 

[ineedsnow]

12Z EURO not even finished but wow

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Forecast 0-6” and you’ll be covered for that event. I’d hedge on the lower side for now though. Looks moisture-starved. 

Yeah agree. Qpf verbatim on this run aside.. that look would drop a nice band of WAA snow in a zone 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

3 hours ago you said midweek looks good for SNE

Tried to tell you this morning 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Tried to tell you this morning 

Still looks good 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 hours ago, alex said:

I feel like we’d need more than 2-5 degrees F above normal for a thaw… that would still keep most of New England below freezing I would think?

Most of New England would be 40-50 if that verified, colder in the elevations and NNE. 

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Still looks good 

GEFS/GEPS mean has a storm in Gulf of Maine. That's meh for SNE. 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

GEFS/GEPS mean has a storm in Gulf of Maine. That's meh for SNE. 

Machines/ Euro > GEFS

[78Blizzard]

Euro = days and days of snow.

[MJO812]

Wow euro 

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow euro 

Dont believe that nonsense. 

[MJO812]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Dont believe that nonsense. 

Eps agrees 

 

Pattern looks good

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps agrees 

 

Pattern looks good

Well then We better get that midweek system if that’s gonna verify. 

[Ginx snewx]

All frozen Will will do the math