February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

compaction too.   

Easier to shovel than the last storm

[the_other_guy]

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

My car and my area 

and that looks like 2 feet of snow in BK? I know you were here for 2016 so be honest.

[WeatherGeek2025]

Mods feel free to delete it but I started a thread for tomorrows clipper.

If approved it please pin it 

 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

and that looks like 2 feet of snow in BK? I know you were here for 2016 so be honest.

I got 31 inches in that storm. The winds were way worse with that one. 

[MJO812]

Big March Snowtorm ? Crappy spring.

 

 

[EasternLI]

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, EasternLI said:

Central PA Middle Finger very apparent as usual. Only 28” in State College for the season, low 20s in the Susquehanna Valley. But other than in the middle finger, finally a great winter. 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be somewhat milder with some early snow showers. Parts of the region could see a fresh coating of snow. A period of rain or wet snow is possible late Thursday and Thursday night as a system passes to the south of the region. Friday will be a bit colder before it turns milder on Saturday to start the weekend.

Winter 2025-2026 will is on track to join Winters 1960-1961 and 1977-1978 as the only winters with two or more 10" snowstorms, a seasonal mean temperature of 32° or below and seasonal snowfall of 40.0" or above.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around February 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was +7.16 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.202 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.3° (4.6° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 4.0° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. If a 32.0° or below seasonal mean temperature occurs, that would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

[EasternLI]

Don't see any big prolonged torch in the cards with this happening. Even though I'm more than ready for one lol. Luckily, I'm going to the Bahamas on the 11th. So you can probably lock in a March biggie for that week  This will probably want to keep the vortex hanging out near Hudson bay. Which has been a preferred locale for it all winter long already. I'm not exactly getting early summer vibes from that idea.

[NEG NAO]

39 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Mods feel free to delete it but I started a thread for tomorrows clipper.

If approved it please pin it 

 

Northof78 already opened one a while ago

[NEG NAO]

36 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Big March Snowtorm ? Crappy spring.

 

 

One of these years there are going to be quite a few MLB games postponed in March because of cold and frozen precip - Mets open at home  March 26 ??? Ridiculous IMO..

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

The enormous piles aren't going anywhere anytime soon so you'll see those

There's still piles from December 14 under the piles from December 27 under the piles from ... etc

[Snowpsycho]

2 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Euro misses us just to the south with a light snow on Monday, but then gives us a few inches Tuesday before changing over to a mix and rain. Hopefully GFS is correct with the big snowstorm idea for Monday, but obviously a long way to go before the models figure out what's gonna happen. I do think it's likely we'll see at least some snow early next week. Hopefully we'll break our March snow drought. I'd like to see one more snowstorm, but I am looking forward to some much warmer temps as we head into mid March. 

I believe in the GFS! Let's see it lead the way once again. 

[wishcast_hater]

Bernie Rayo said only a 15% chance of a storm next week.  

Those who know,  know. 

[nycsnow]

Trending north Friday 

[coastalplainsnowman]

25 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

One of these years there are going to be quite a few MLB games postponed in March because of cold and frozen precip - Mets open at home  March 26 ??? Ridiculous IMO..

Two wintry baseball memories:

- The Yankees April 7th 1982 opening day plus three more games postponed due to the April blizzard

- 1996 home opener on April 9, 1996 played in flurries with Santa in attendance

Somehow they still managed to finish by the the few days in October.  Researching a bit it looks like the players bargained for additional days off in-season.  That plus the lack of planned double headers means the season has to start sooner now I suppose.

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Trending north Friday 

Sneaky little system. GFS has the hot hand so it's something to watch I suppose 

[Irish]

16 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

Bernie Rayo said only a 15% chance of a storm next week.  

Those who know,  know. 

That's the exact % be gave this last storm. So it's all but guaranteed!

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Two wintry baseball memories:

- The Yankees April 7th 1982 opening day plus three more games postponed due to the April blizzard

- 1996 home opener on April 9, 1996 played in flurries with Santa in attendance

Somehow they still managed to finish by the the few days in October.  Researching a bit it looks like the players bargained for additional days off in-season.  That plus the lack of planned double headers means the season has to start sooner now I suppose.

1996 was when most of LI got 5-10 inches of snow.  I think it never really accumulated west of there.  Mets opener in 2013 or 2014 ISP had 5 inches of snow that morning, not sure it ever snowed by the stadium

[coastalplainsnowman]

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

1996 was when most of LI got 5-10 inches of snow.  I think it never really accumulated west of there.

I always thought that storm happened on the night of the 10th, separate from flurries event at the Stadium on the 9th.

Whatever the date, you're right that that storm increased drastically from west to east, and not sure if that got the city much.  4" by me but I think 10-12" out by Smithtown/Kings Park.  @NorthShoreWx can answer this one for sure.

Edit:  I think you're right about it occurring on the 9th into the 10th.

[nycwinter]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Easier to shovel than the last storm

wet snow high sun angle not as cold but when i went out this morning  in 26 degrees snow trails were icy had to be careful not to slip and the street corners were either mushy or huge poodles of yuk to step into..

[nycwinter]

16 minutes ago, Irish said:

That's the exact % be gave this last storm. So it's all but guaranteed!

bernie was so bad with the blizzard he embarrassed himself more then he usually does..

[MJO812]

Lol at the gfs for next week

[MJO812]