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February 2026 OBS & Discussion


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19 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

looks like it's 2 days later too

Gfs is more of a Monday afternoon into early Tuesday. Still a week out I’m sure in a couple days if it’s real we’ll see the timeframe… the way this years been wouldn’t be surprised to see it end up back on a Sunday Monday. Seems like most of our snow has been lol

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12 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Gfs is more of a Monday afternoon into early Tuesday. Still a week out I’m sure in a couple days if it’s real we’ll see the timeframe… the way this years been wouldn’t be surprised to see it end up back on a Sunday Monday. Seems like most of our snow has been lol

GFS makes the most sense - the Euro's don't .....

prateptype_cat-imp.conus.png

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2 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

10 years ago...

image.thumb.png.9fc610b0ae9fa67b0dd12c8c7f63ccaf.png

That was an awful and scary winter. +15 Dec. First freeze January. Highest snowfall ever in one storm mid Jan…all gone within a week. And a few days here and there of 0 degree weather followed by more extreme warmth.

 

I call 2015-2016 the post apocalyptic winter. Actually unnerving

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3 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

That was an awful and scary winter. +15 Dec. First freeze January. Highest snowfall ever in one storm mid Jan…all gone within a week. And a few days here and there of 0 degree weather followed by more extreme warmth.

 

I call 2015-2016 the post apocalyptic winter. Actually unnerving

I believe that December ended up warmer than the average November in NYC and within a degree or two of the average April. Yeah it was ridiculous.

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Euro misses us just to the south with a light snow on Monday, but then gives us a few inches Tuesday before changing over to a mix and rain. Hopefully GFS is correct with the big snowstorm idea for Monday, but obviously a long way to go before the models figure out what's gonna happen. I do think it's likely we'll see at least some snow early next week. Hopefully we'll break our March snow drought. I'd like to see one more snowstorm, but I am looking forward to some much warmer temps as we head into mid March. 

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10 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

What’s the deal with nearly no snow on anyone’s roof? Over 2’ and it seems to have disappeared fast

Wind took care of a a lot and the sun is doing its thing helping! Something to be grateful for, don’t want that on roofs, especially if more snow falls. Luckily we’re at that time of year where it typically doesn’t last too long - best of both worlds. 

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just an observation I just left Westchester to come down to work in Queens. And I made a stop in Whitestone to shovel my parents. 

 

It is not even close in terms of snow. I don’t know where many of these measurements were made down in the city. I’m assuming on large grassy areas. Because the snow lying around on the streets of Queens is a fraction, a small fraction of what we have 10 miles north of the Bronx.

I saw Whitestone reported 23 inches of snow. I’ve been in Whitestone with a 2 foot storm, and this isnt it.

just for reference in the photo below, that’s what people in Westchester are dealing with right now. i’m sure I on Long Island the scenes are similar.

 

 

IMG_0173.jpeg

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39 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

What’s the deal with nearly no snow on anyone’s roof? Over 2’ and it seems to have disappeared fast

Higher sun angle , direction roof faces and slope -temps above freezing yesterday and close enough to freezing today  to promote melting- poor insulation just below the roof - solar panels etc. etc.

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Tomorrow will be somewhat milder with some early snow showers. Parts of the region could see a fresh coating of snow. A period of rain or wet snow is possible late Thursday and Thursday night as a system passes to the south of the region. Friday will be a bit colder before it turns milder on Saturday to start the weekend.

Winter 2025-2026 will is on track to join Winters 1960-1961 and 1977-1978 as the only winters with two or more 10" snowstorms, a seasonal mean temperature of 32° or below and seasonal snowfall of 40.0" or above.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around February 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was +7.16 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.202 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.3° (4.6° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 4.0° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. If a 32.0° or below seasonal mean temperature occurs, that would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

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Don't see any big prolonged torch in the cards with this happening. Even though I'm more than ready for one lol. Luckily, I'm going to the Bahamas on the 11th. So you can probably lock in a March biggie for that week :lol: This will probably want to keep the vortex hanging out near Hudson bay. Which has been a preferred locale for it all winter long already. I'm not exactly getting early summer vibes from that idea.

MRUHBHi.png

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