February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[golfer07840]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

the whole winter was mild especially compared to the year before which was epic; this was the only major storm in 95, included in kocin's book; i remember it was a saturday so impacts were less; it would be the last storm i would use a shovel on; december 95 i bought a snow blower and guess what, we had a major snow two days later....ya'll know what the rest of that winter was like; the blower was good for up to 12 inches......i thought that would be plenty.....wrong...

So strange I barely remember that storm, probably because it was on a Saturday. 

And the winter of '95/'96 was so long. It was in the high 30s/low 40s until mid April and felt like it would never end. 

My GF, now wife, and I went to Florida in March and we basked in the 80 degrees for 10 days. We come back and it was freezing rain and 38. Awful 

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, Monty said:

I wouldn't weenie this post but I don't find it compelling. Dave is a proud, loud, card carrying Democrat and I feel his weather opinions are biased by his political opinions. If I am reading his graphic correctly there are 18 fewer balloons going up over the USA every day than before the budget cuts, and 5 of them are downstream from us. How many more private balloons are going up today compared to 5 or 10 years ago with data available to the globals? Have sattelite density and observational quality improved at all? Are the number and quality of plane sensors unchanged? What percentage of reduction does this represent when accounting for balloon soundings globally? 

"Fewer balloons is bad and ruining modeling" is a pretty simple take on the matter. 

As another poster said we've seen some abysmal model performance over the last five years, particularly the GFS since its latest "upgrade." These failures predate NOAA budget cuts. 

the effects are noticeable in all agencies and have been written about extensively in respected publications, at least the ones not owned by murdoch or bezos.....a professional has listed his reasons and you have answered with an anecdote from a poster here. 

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, golfer07840 said:

So strange I barely remember that storm, probably because it was on a Saturday. 

And the winter of '95/'96 was so long. It was in the high 30s/low 40s until mid April and felt like it would never end. 

My GF, now wife, and I went to Florida in March and we basked in the 80 degrees for 10 days. We come back and it was freezing rain and 38. Awful 

it also came on the heels of 94; people had gotten used to big snows the year before, and many were talking about the storm coming and were ready for it. and that was basically it for the whole winter.

[WeatherGeek2025]

note the gfs ai shows some frozen precip friday night 

[donsutherland1]

New York City remains on course for a winter season mean temperature of 32.0° or below. Much will depend on the warmup that will conclude February. The last time that happened was in 2014-2015.

Some of the guidance and a number of individual ensemble members continue to suggest that the New York City area could experience a significant or major snowfall during the February 22-24 period. That's far from a done deal, despite support from the highest-ranked operational model, the ECMWF-AIFS. For now, the possible event is a low probability, high-impact scenario. The picture should become clearer later this week.

To date, New York City has seen 22.3" of snow. 7.7" of additional snowfall would bring the seasonal figure to 30.0". Were that to happen, Winter 2025-2026 would be a special winter for its combination of snowfall and cold.

The last five winters to see a seasonal mean temperature of 32.0° or below and 30.0" or more snowfall were 1960-1961, 1977-1978, 1993-1994, 2002-2003 and 2014-2015. 

 

[SACRUS]

36 / 34 - a rapid melt off kind of day and the warmest day since the warmth of early Jan for many.  Perhaps a stray 50.  Might be the only chink of sun we see for a while with a cloudy and overall wet week that may transition to white by Sunday - Monday.  Near to below avg beyond the weekend/monday period - 2/23 - beyond.

 

[Monty]

8 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

the effects are noticeable in all agencies and have been written about extensively in respected publications, at least the ones not owned by murdoch or bezos.....a professional has listed his reasons and you have answered with an anecdote from a poster here. 

If there are observed and measurable reductions in model accuracy due to fewer balloon launches, please link me to this info. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

94-95 being warm and virtually snowless (with the exception of February), despite being a moderate el nino, shows how things were screwed up after Pinatubo. 92-93 was the backloaded winter with the Storm of the Century in mid-March, while 93-94 and 95-96 were wall-to-wall cold and snowy.

[Freezing Drizzle]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

New York City remains on course for a winter season mean temperature of 32.0° or below. Much will depend on the warmup that will conclude February. The last time that happened was in 2018-2019.

Some of the guidance and a number of individual ensemble members continue to suggest that the New York City area could experience a significant or major snowfall during the February 22-24 period. That's far from a done deal, despite support from the highest-ranked operational model, the ECMWF-AIFS. For now, the possible event is a low probability, high-impact scenario. The picture should become clearer later this week.

To date, New York City has seen 22.3" of snow. 7.7" of additional snowfall would bring the seasonal figure to 30.0". Were that to happen, Winter 2025-2026 would be a special winter for its combination of snowfall and cold.

The last five winters to see a seasonal mean temperature of 32.0° or below and 30.0" or more snowfall were 1960-1961, 1977-1978, 1993-1994, 2002-2003 and 2014-2015. 

 

Hi Don,
I'm surprised to see that 1976-1977 winter is not on this list.  Perhaps there was a warm spell(s) that increased the mean average for the period? FD

[Freezing Drizzle]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

94-95 being warm and virtually snowless (with the exception of February), despite being a moderate el nino, shows how things were screwed up after Pinatubo. 92-93 was the backloaded winter with the Storm of the Century in mid-March, while 93-94 and 95-96 were wall-to-wall cold and snowy.

Good summary of that period. February 1995 did have that one-footer for most of our region; I guess you alluded to that one.

[donsutherland1]

35 minutes ago, Freezing Drizzle said:

Hi Don,
I'm surprised to see that 1976-1977 winter is not on this list.  Perhaps there was a warm spell(s) that increased the mean average for the period? FD

1976-77 didn't make it, because the winter was frigid (28.3° seasonal mean temperature), but seasonal snowfall was below 30.0" (24.5").

[PhiEaglesfan712]

45 minutes ago, Freezing Drizzle said:

Hi Don,
I'm surprised to see that 1976-1977 winter is not on this list.  Perhaps there was a warm spell(s) that increased the mean average for the period? FD

The ones I'm more surprised about are 1995-96, 2003-04, 2010-11, and 2013-14. Those were almost wall-to-wall cold in December-February, and I know all of these winters did 40+ inches in NYC. No way 2018-19 was colder than all of those. If anything 18-19 was near average temperaturewise December-February (though November and March were well below average).

[donsutherland1]

11 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The ones I'm more surprised about are 1995-96, 2003-04, 2010-11, and 2013-14. Those were almost wall-to-wall cold in December-February, and I know all of these winters did 40+ inches in NYC. No way 2018-19 was colder than all of those. If anything 18-19 was near average temperaturewise December-February (though November and March were well below average).

The mean temperatures for those winters were:

1995-1996: 32.2°
2003-2004: 32.4°
2010-2011: 32.7°
2013-2014: 33.0°

Finally, the reference to the last winter with a mean temperature of 32° or below should be to 2014-15, as shown in past posts. Apologies for the error.

[Freezing Drizzle]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

1976-77 didn't make it, because the winter was frigid (28.3° seasonal mean temperature), but seasonal snowfall was below 30.0" (24.5").

Thanks Don. Sorry, I didn't catch that point.  I recall very cold, light, fluffy snowfalls that season; they did last, though.

[wthrmn654]

Dammit snow/ ice killer advisory issued to 10 am tomorrow.  Bye snow pack. 

[Brian5671]

21 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Dammit snow/ ice killer advisory issued to 10 am tomorrow.  Bye snow pack. 

melting here slowly-up to 45

[wthrmn654]

Stupid fog. All have yet to hit 40 since Jan 22 lol

[wthrmn654]

Currently 37 and a little fog more hazy then Anthony

[Wannabehippie]

24 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Currently 37 and a little fog more hazy then Anthony

49 degrees by me. 

25 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Stupid fog. All have yet to hit 40 since Jan 22 lol

That fog must be eating away those big piles of snow.