February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[MJO812]

Archambault event 

[eduggs]

57 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro just went bonkers for next Thursday thru Saturday 

Yeah basically 72 consecutive hours of precipitation - mostly snow! It ejects a bigger piece of the Pacific trof hitting CA day 4 out ahead of the consolidated ULL. This evolution doesn't have much support unfortunately among the other models save for maybe a few GEFS members. The height field evolution across the northeast days 4-6 is also very different from model consensus right now. I expect a lot of run to run variability for next week for the next few days. I don't like seeing the 2/11 wave trend a little warmer in recent runs across most guidance.

[MJO812]

Eps is nice 

[eduggs]

The ensembles suggest multiple waves days 5-12. But the spread-out nature of the QPF suggests disagreement about timing and significance of each in succession. I don't believe we have a clear signal yet for specific storm events or dates. The most tangible is the first, mid-week wave but even this nearer threat is still evolving.

[eduggs]

The blinds were closed for a week and I just peaked out to see the UKMET still showing less than 0.1" liquid through the end of its run. The CMC has a few tenths through day 10 but it's rain. And no consensus among the other models for a clear threat through the mid-range. I really hope it won't be another close-the-blinds week.

[gallopinggertie]

Is there any chance sea ice forms in Long Island Sound with this upcoming Arctic cold?

[SnoSki14]

15 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The blinds were closed for a week and I just peaked out to see the UKMET still showing less than 0.1" liquid through the end of its run. The CMC has a few tenths through day 10 but it's rain. And no consensus among the other models for a clear threat through the mid-range. I really hope it won't be another close-the-blinds week.

Hopefully not because its been bone dry and that'll be an issue heading into spring 

[Nibor]

1 hour ago, nycsnow said:

lol this run is like “f fairlawn nj in particular”

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Hopefully not because its been bone dry and that'll be an issue heading into spring 

Shouldnt be with the PNA dropping 

[NorthShoreWx]

Realtime (-48 years) from ISP:

METAR KISP 061856Z 04528G35KT 0SM +SN VV000 M02/M04 A2963 RMK SLP036

Waiting for the 3pm obs.  Puking snow and the house is shaking.

[NorthShoreWx]

11 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Realtime (-48 years) from ISP:

METAR KISP 061856Z 04528G35KT 0SM +SN VV000 M02/M04 A2963 RMK SLP036

Waiting for the 3pm obs.  Puking snow and the house is shaking.

Hot off the [very cold] presses:

METAR KISP 061956Z 04035G49KT 0SM +SN BLSN VV000 M02/M02 A2954 RMK SLP000

[Roger Smith]

Re: start a thread? 

There already is a thread in the form of the contest for low temperatures and weekend snowfall. If you enter the contest (deadline 06z or 0100h tonight) please note, snowfall as per rules begins on Saturday so anything before midnight won't count towards contest results. 

Feel free to discuss the cold and snow as well as entering contest there. 

[wthrmn654]

11 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Hot off the [very cold] presses:

METAR KISP 061956Z 04035G49KT 0SM +SN BLSN VV000 M02/M02 A2954 RMK SLP000

Right now? 

[NyWxGuy]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

The blinds were closed for a week and I just peaked out to see the UKMET still showing less than 0.1" liquid through the end of its run. The CMC has a few tenths through day 10 but it's rain. And no consensus among the other models for a clear threat through the mid-range. I really hope it won't be another close-the-blinds week.

Meh. I’m not particularly enthused. The 11th threat is gone, looks too warm now. And we all know the 2-3 days of snow Euro has next weekend won’t happen like that. Looks a bit warm for that threat. After that, we have our moderation period. So cold but most of it’s gone to waste. Hopefully there’s another window towards end of month. But we haven’t had late February snow since 2021. Been so long for march snow as well. I’m not impressed 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

7 minutes ago, NyWxGuy said:

Meh. I’m not particularly enthused. The 11th threat is gone, looks too warm now. And we all know the 2-3 days of snow Euro has next weekend won’t happen like that. Looks a bit warm for that threat. After that, we have our moderation period. So cold but most of it’s gone to waste. Hopefully there’s another window towards end of month. But we haven’t had late February snow since 2021. Been so long for march snow as well. I’m not impressed 

We had a storm with 11-18 inches of snow area wide, followed by cold that preserved most of the snow cover in place for the two weeks since. How is that a waste of the cold?

[eduggs]

4 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

We had a storm with 11-18 inches of snow area wide, followed by cold that preserved most of the snow cover in place for the two weeks hence. How is that a waste of the cold?

It's been below average cold for a solid 3 weeks right through the heart of winter. The mix event on January 25 was a lot of fun, but this period will be remembered for its cold not for its snow.

[the_other_guy]

5 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

We had a storm with 11-18 inches of snow area wide, followed by cold that preserved most of the snow cover in place for the two weeks since. How is that a waste of the cold?

Hes saying that that was it and hes disappointed. And hes not wrong to feel that way.

 

it was a nice big storm followed by a prolonged cold snap but that looks like all we’re gonna get right now. 

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

We had a storm with 11-18 inches of snow area wide, followed by cold that preserved most of the snow cover in place for the two weeks since. How is that a waste of the cold?

Exactly

Some people on here are delusional 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Hes saying that that was it and hes disappointed. And hes not wrong to feel that way.

 

it was a nice big storm followed by a prolonged cold snap but that looks like all we’re gonna get right now. 

Usually a storm happens when the tellies go the other way and thats what is going to happen. 

[weatherpruf]

7 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Hes saying that that was it and hes disappointed. And hes not wrong to feel that way.

 

it was a nice big storm followed by a prolonged cold snap but that looks like all we’re gonna get right now. 

can't say that from looking at long term forecasts; seen stuff develop rapidly many times. but if that's it, it was still a great winter; several december events, great pictures during the holiday season, big ass storm in late jan, pronounced cold to keep it around for awhile. they were still digging out early this week. beats the heck out of years like, 20, 23, and so on.....but not the blockbuster many here wanted. 

[jm1220]

We’re still at the stage where there’s a signal that there should be a storm around Presidents Day weekend. Specifics several days at least away from being determined. 

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, wthrmn654 said:

Right now? 

Right now 48 years ago today.  Here are the 4pm obs; it's getting real:

METAR KISP 062056Z 04540G52KT 0SM +SN BLSN VV000 M01/M02 A2949 RMK SLP986

[NorthShoreWx]

2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

They are posting obs from Feb 6, 1978 (Blizzard of 78). 

If threatening weather develops, we will interrupt these obs with important severe weather information

[coastalplainsnowman]

48 minutes ago, eduggs said:

It's been below average cold for a solid 3 weeks right through the heart of winter. The mix event on January 25 was a lot of fun, but this period will be remembered for its cold not for its snow.

I respectfully disagree .  I believe this ever since being introduced to the ‘cumulative snowpack’ stat (h/t Don), which I think is the best stat for how wintry a winter will be remembered, especially by the average person.  I believe that years from now we’ll remember the cold and occasionally frigid temps, but we’ll mostly remember the deep snow and icepack which refused to budge for weeks, as well as the unique nature of the storm itself.  If this had just been a two week stretch with an average high in the high 20s, with no snow, it would be very forgettable.
 

[MANDA]

17 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Right now 48 years ago today.  Here are the 4pm obs; it's getting real:

METAR KISP 062056Z 04540G52KT 0SM +SN BLSN VV000 M01/M02 A2949 RMK SLP986

Gotta love the 986 SLP

What a memorable storm that was and will always be.  Not my favorite but in the top 10.  In some ways it is my favorite because of the times we were living in.  No internet. All you had was tv and radio to get info from.  As a kid interested in the weather it was a special time.  NOAA weather radio with live warm bodies doing the hourly roundup!  Still have Accuweather recordings from 1010 WINS.

[NorthShoreWx]

9 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Gotta love the 986 SLP

What a memorable storm that was and will always be.  Not my favorite but in the top 10.  In some ways it is my favorite because of the times we were living in.  No internet. All you had was tv and radio to get info from.  As a kid interested in the weather it was a special time.  NOAA weather radio with live warm bodies doing the hourly roundup!  Still have Accuweather recordings from 1010 WINS.

I think that means 998.6mb. The lowest at KISP during that storm was 29.24" (990 mb)

[weatherpruf]

17 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Gotta love the 986 SLP

What a memorable storm that was and will always be.  Not my favorite but in the top 10.  In some ways it is my favorite because of the times we were living in.  No internet. All you had was tv and radio to get info from.  As a kid interested in the weather it was a special time.  NOAA weather radio with live warm bodies doing the hourly roundup!  Still have Accuweather recordings from 1010 WINS.

also as a kid in high school, it was the deepest snow my friends and i had ever seen; we grew up with 5-6 inches being a snow day, and not that many at that. to be closed for a week was unheard of. and we would not see anything like it until 1983, the april 82 storm being a freak but not as impactful. 83 would not be matched until 96, the march 93 superstorm mixing for us; the stretch if ku events in the 2000s was extraordinary.

[EastonSN+]

Most snowfall since 20/21 (21 to date for CPK).

At this point would grade as a C- however we have until mid March to hopefully pad the stats.

[NorthShoreWx]

February 6, 5pm obs from ISP (1978):

METAR KISP 062156Z 04525G40KT 0SM +SN BLSN VV000 M01/M03 A2946 RMK SLP976

[MANDA]

32 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I think that means 998.6mb. The lowest at KISP during that storm was 29.24" (990 mb)

You are correct.  Typing too fast.