February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[MJO812]

Archambault event 

[eduggs]

57 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro just went bonkers for next Thursday thru Saturday 

Yeah basically 72 consecutive hours of precipitation - mostly snow! It ejects a bigger piece of the Pacific trof hitting CA day 4 out ahead of the consolidated ULL. This evolution doesn't have much support unfortunately among the other models save for maybe a few GEFS members. The height field evolution across the northeast days 4-6 is also very different from model consensus right now. I expect a lot of run to run variability for next week for the next few days. I don't like seeing the 2/11 wave trend a little warmer in recent runs across most guidance.

[MJO812]

Eps is nice 

[eduggs]

The ensembles suggest multiple waves days 5-12. But the spread-out nature of the QPF suggests disagreement about timing and significance of each in succession. I don't believe we have a clear signal yet for specific storm events or dates. The most tangible is the first, mid-week wave but even this nearer threat is still evolving.

[eduggs]

The blinds were closed for a week and I just peaked out to see the UKMET still showing less than 0.1" liquid through the end of its run. The CMC has a few tenths through day 10 but it's rain. And no consensus among the other models for a clear threat through the mid-range. I really hope it won't be another close-the-blinds week.

[gallopinggertie]

Is there any chance sea ice forms in Long Island Sound with this upcoming Arctic cold?

[SnoSki14]

15 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The blinds were closed for a week and I just peaked out to see the UKMET still showing less than 0.1" liquid through the end of its run. The CMC has a few tenths through day 10 but it's rain. And no consensus among the other models for a clear threat through the mid-range. I really hope it won't be another close-the-blinds week.

Hopefully not because its been bone dry and that'll be an issue heading into spring 

[Nibor]

1 hour ago, nycsnow said:

lol this run is like “f fairlawn nj in particular”

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Hopefully not because its been bone dry and that'll be an issue heading into spring 

Shouldnt be with the PNA dropping 

[NorthShoreWx]

Realtime (-48 years) from ISP:

METAR KISP 061856Z 04528G35KT 0SM +SN VV000 M02/M04 A2963 RMK SLP036

Waiting for the 3pm obs.  Puking snow and the house is shaking.

[NorthShoreWx]

11 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Realtime (-48 years) from ISP:

METAR KISP 061856Z 04528G35KT 0SM +SN VV000 M02/M04 A2963 RMK SLP036

Waiting for the 3pm obs.  Puking snow and the house is shaking.

Hot off the [very cold] presses:

METAR KISP 061956Z 04035G49KT 0SM +SN BLSN VV000 M02/M02 A2954 RMK SLP000

[Roger Smith]

Re: start a thread? 

There already is a thread in the form of the contest for low temperatures and weekend snowfall. If you enter the contest (deadline 06z or 0100h tonight) please note, snowfall as per rules begins on Saturday so anything before midnight won't count towards contest results. 

Feel free to discuss the cold and snow as well as entering contest there. 

[wthrmn654]

11 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Hot off the [very cold] presses:

METAR KISP 061956Z 04035G49KT 0SM +SN BLSN VV000 M02/M02 A2954 RMK SLP000

Right now? 

[NyWxGuy]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

The blinds were closed for a week and I just peaked out to see the UKMET still showing less than 0.1" liquid through the end of its run. The CMC has a few tenths through day 10 but it's rain. And no consensus among the other models for a clear threat through the mid-range. I really hope it won't be another close-the-blinds week.

Meh. I’m not particularly enthused. The 11th threat is gone, looks too warm now. And we all know the 2-3 days of snow Euro has next weekend won’t happen like that. Looks a bit warm for that threat. After that, we have our moderation period. So cold but most of it’s gone to waste. Hopefully there’s another window towards end of month. But we haven’t had late February snow since 2021. Been so long for march snow as well. I’m not impressed 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

7 minutes ago, NyWxGuy said:

Meh. I’m not particularly enthused. The 11th threat is gone, looks too warm now. And we all know the 2-3 days of snow Euro has next weekend won’t happen like that. Looks a bit warm for that threat. After that, we have our moderation period. So cold but most of it’s gone to waste. Hopefully there’s another window towards end of month. But we haven’t had late February snow since 2021. Been so long for march snow as well. I’m not impressed 

We had a storm with 11-18 inches of snow area wide, followed by cold that preserved most of the snow cover in place for the two weeks since. How is that a waste of the cold?

[eduggs]

4 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

We had a storm with 11-18 inches of snow area wide, followed by cold that preserved most of the snow cover in place for the two weeks hence. How is that a waste of the cold?

It's been below average cold for a solid 3 weeks right through the heart of winter. The mix event on January 25 was a lot of fun, but this period will be remembered for its cold not for its snow.

[the_other_guy]

5 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

We had a storm with 11-18 inches of snow area wide, followed by cold that preserved most of the snow cover in place for the two weeks since. How is that a waste of the cold?

Hes saying that that was it and hes disappointed. And hes not wrong to feel that way.

 

it was a nice big storm followed by a prolonged cold snap but that looks like all we’re gonna get right now. 

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

We had a storm with 11-18 inches of snow area wide, followed by cold that preserved most of the snow cover in place for the two weeks since. How is that a waste of the cold?

Exactly

Some people on here are delusional 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Hes saying that that was it and hes disappointed. And hes not wrong to feel that way.

 

it was a nice big storm followed by a prolonged cold snap but that looks like all we’re gonna get right now. 

Usually a storm happens when the tellies go the other way and thats what is going to happen. 

[weatherpruf]

7 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Hes saying that that was it and hes disappointed. And hes not wrong to feel that way.

 

it was a nice big storm followed by a prolonged cold snap but that looks like all we’re gonna get right now. 

can't say that from looking at long term forecasts; seen stuff develop rapidly many times. but if that's it, it was still a great winter; several december events, great pictures during the holiday season, big ass storm in late jan, pronounced cold to keep it around for awhile. they were still digging out early this week. beats the heck out of years like, 20, 23, and so on.....but not the blockbuster many here wanted.