Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.

[SouthCoastMA]

NAM looked decent at 48h..but extrapolating this model past that is asking for trouble. 

[NSwx]

59 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Haven't you gotten croaked by some big storms the past few years?

Where I’m situated on the most southern tip of the province we generally get shafted with rain and such. So far it has been a perfect setup for us since the pattern flip a week ago,  the Sunday storm plus 4-5 inches of ocean effect squalls has really added up. For now I’m in about the best position possible for this system, we shall see. 

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

NAM looked decent at 48h..but extrapolating this model past that is asking for trouble. 

Ya but that stupid Bahama low is going to mess.things up again

[Kitz Craver]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Ya but that stupid Bahama low is going to mess.things up again

F that thing. That’s what it latches onto and starts the NE skirt

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Ya but that stupid Bahama low is going to mess.things up again

That's going to be there. The question is how far can it slingshot up to affect parts of SNE. Looked in better position based on higher heights and trough orientation. we'll see

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

That's going to be there. The question is how far can it slingshot up to affect parts of SNE. Looked in better position based on higher heights and trough orientation. we'll see

H5 was certainly better vs 6z. That feature is real I think. 

[tunafish]

47 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Surprisingly PWM is 0.6 AN for Jan. 

We had two stretches in the beginning of the month where it was above freezing for 72-ish hours straight.  That's enough to offset the BN.

Amazingly, the ice managed to survive with no issue.  Been two great winters for pond hockey and ice fishing (some will roll their eyes, but you gotta get out and have fun on the cheap sometimes).

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Ya but that stupid Bahama low is going to mess.things up again

 

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

F that thing. That’s what it latches onto and starts the NE skirt

That’s why every single situation is a little different.,that wasn’t seen back on Monday. So it looked like a straight forward Miller A bomb. Then these appendages started to show up, and it’s lead to this thing missing. If they’re even real? But as of now, they look to be.
 

Whatever, I’m done thinking about it. If it comes back tomorrow…great. If not,  get it out of here and on its way to Bermuda. Next. 

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

H5 was certainly better vs 6z. That feature is real I think. 

A bit weaker on this run.. if it fades we might have something.. without that this would probably be a biggie

[JKEisMan]

That blob of lows looks like a fidget spinner.

[ineedsnow]

NAM trying to redevelop by the NC coast at hr 69. Models honestly have no idea.. more changes coming

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

A bit weaker on this run.. if it fades we might have something.. without that this would probably be a biggie

Yea, safe to say it's not merely an artifact of modeling at this point, we just need to mitigate it's influence somehow. Admittedly tall task at day 3 but not impossible.

[SouthCoastMA]

You'd think the Euro would have the better capacity to handle this type of complicated interaction. Unless it's glue again

[ineedsnow]

Gets some snow.into.SNE HR81 will be interesting to see how the rest of 12z plays out.. but that was a much much better look

[Kitz Craver]

Interesting the NAM loses the Bahama low and respawns a new one off of the Carolinas at the end of the run. 

[CoastalWx]

Not enough on the NAM but what a mess to model.

[ineedsnow]

The NAM would probably have a big band further west.. Kev FTW? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

Interesting the NAM loses the Bahama low and respawns a new one off of the Carolinas at the end of the run. 

Jesus, this is like the Philip Rivers of storms...every run there is a new spawn.

[SouthCoastMA]

The EURO seems to be focusing on a 3rd low north of the Hatteras and Bahamian lows, that gets most of the moisture up here. The holy trinity. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

The NAM would probably have a big band further west.. Kev FTW? 

Nothing there. Just slower but still tracks too far se.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

The NAM would probably have a big band further west.. Kev FTW? 

Nobody FTW…we still don’t have any real answers, except that it’s a miss at this MOMENT for 90% of the region. But I agree…the final solution is still elusive and pending. 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nothing there. Just slower but still tracks too far se.

Not this run but you can see how it could happen

[HoarfrostHubb]

39 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yes crazy gradient around here 

It was fun to watch the car thermometer change as I drove in to work.  Lowest I saw was -9 in... Westminster? on Rte 2.

Was at 10F by the time I got to work 15 minutes later

[Wxbear25]

Yeah... this is one of the more complex situations you'll ever see, so anyone saying its definitely coming/not coming could not be more disingenuous lol

From a pure synoptics standpoint you'd think "how could it miss" and then the ridging ahead of the low gets de-torched by little strengthening perturbations in the flow

We're not at the end yet either way, my friends

 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

The NAM would probably have a big band further west.. Kev FTW? 

Lol .. not a W. Just nice to see so far 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Not this run but you can see how it could happen

I honestly don’t. Nothing at h5 indicates a pivot to the nw should be coming.

[Kitz Craver]

The NAM does throw some moisture all the way back to CT as it bombs and travels NE. That’s the first look to have that expansive of a precip shield 

[WinterWolf]

With all these lows(fake or real?), we may see a situation where modeling will decide to blow up/focus on one, and ride it up the coast, after all the other appendages/convection exits east…so it may be a situation where it’s delayed, but not ultimately denied. That is a possibility. 

[Cyclone-68]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Jesus, this is like the Philip Rivers of storms...every run there is a new spawn.

It’s too bad he didn’t get the head coaching job. He could staff all the coordinators with his own family 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

The NAM does throw some moisture all the way back to CT as it bombs and travels NE. That’s the first look to have that expansive of a precip shield 

Kind of what we’ve been mentioning. It’s a winter hurricane so it’s going to do that . Just depends how close it can pass