Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

CFS? Lol. 
 

Surprised Ant didn’t pull out the Korean. 

Well, it probably whiffed....not that it's beneath him.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think barring a significant regression, you can start tuning up the plows EOR because I don't see how this doesn't get banding well west of model depictions....again, assuming it doesn't verify further east.

Agree that there will be a massive deform band 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I wonder if the CFS incorporates more of that analog data...no clue, just thinking out loud, as that would explain the violence.

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

CFS? Lol. 
 

Surprised Ant didn’t pull out the Korean. 

I miss the short lived (or available) SuperSwiss.  That one was sexy

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

This is low even for you. Go find someone with a headlight out or something. 

Or maybe he could try protecting his community against the Gestapo… 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

At least its something to watch...We have the perfect base for milder tepid SWFE....get a few fresh inches then put a nice crusty top on it and build that way but we're probably out of SWFE luck for a long time now

I can tell you how I would cope if this ever missed...working in the the outskirts of Boston proper (Chelsea) is a logistical nightmare right now with all of the snow. It's really testing my resolve with regard to the snow obsession.

[Typhoon Tip]

I still suggest a correction W across the W Atl nearby EC is possible if not in the cards.

I've been very vocal about the 'disrespect'/odd configuration results of the global models wrt the western heights, and how the coupled downstream trough should dictate this stuff ending up more W -  that completes the total L/W structure.  These erstwhile solutions appearing to be too stretched in the longitudinal axis. 

That did not change over night.    Stubborn.

Yet... and I can't believe I'm saying this wrt any NAM model solution at 60-84 hour out in time   , the 06z you may or may not have noticed is diving down a solid couple of longitude clicks W of all guidance.   That actually looks like a better fit for a western ridge axis roughly aligned Idaho/eastern MT, to W of the Colorado Rockies.  Be that as it may with the NAM inclusion for this, it at least demos one physically plausible solution that better fits what the other models have been failing to do.

That all said... it's possible to stretch the trough perhaps due to other reasons.  It's just that I fail see what those are. It just appears the models are over doing perhaps the S/W translation speed of the whole phasing arena, and that sort of outpaces the L/W - that's a correctable facet, even in shorter terms.  

One aspect about this ( also ) that I feel is correctable in shorter terms is that the curvature of this whole ordeal doesn't even start to emerge until 48 to 60 hours before play time.  The western end of the SPV fragmentation up there draped W-E N of Lake Superior bides time, then the whole thing collapses S rather acutely.  I think that has to actually begin and then the cause-and-effect and feedbacks et al will manifest in some shorter term modulations.

High confidence for a storm... perhaps a tremendous storm, and a positive realization for all this ... but where is biggie when dealing with sub 975ers     yeah. 

[CoastalWx]

Euro is funny. It literally whips that STS west and gives the tuna fisherman hurricane force gusts. 

[Ginx snewx]

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I can tell you I will cope of this even missed...working in the the outskirts of Boston proper (Chelsea) in a logistical nightmare right now with all of the snow. It's really testing my resolve with regard to the snow obsession.

Now imagine 2015 lol. Your comments remind me of my wife and how she was losing it with the logistics getting to and from Northeastern U.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I still suggest a correction W across the W Atl nearby EC is possible if not in the cards.

I've been very vocal about the 'disrespect'/odd configuration results of the global models wrt the western heights, and how the coupled downstream trough that completes the total L/W structure ... appearing to be too stretched in the longitudinal axis. 

That did not change over night.    Stubborn.

Yet... and I can't believe I'm saying this wrt any NAM model solution at 60-84 hour out in time   , the 06z you may or may not have noticed is diving down a solid couple of longitude clicks W of all guidance.   That actually looks like a better fit for a western ridge axis roughly aligned Idaho/eastern MT, to W of the Colorado Rockies.  Be that as it may with the NAM inclusion for this, it at least demos one physically plausible solution that better fits what the other models have been failing to do.

That all said... it's possible to stretch the trough perhaps due to other reasons.  It's just that I fail see what those are. It just appears the models are over doing perhaps the S/W translation speed of the whole phasing arena, and that sort of outpaces the L/W - that's a correctable facet, even in shorter terms.  

One aspect about this ( also ) that I feel is correctable in shorter terms is that the curvature of this whole ordeal doesn't even start to emerge until 48 to 60 hours before play time.  The western end of the SPV fragmentation up there draped W-E N of Lake Superior bides time, then the whole thing collapses S rather acutely.  I think that has to actually begin and then the cause-and-effect and feedbacks et al will manifest in some shorter term modulations.

High confidence for a storm... perhaps a tremendous storm, and a positive realization for all this ... but where is biggie when dealing with sub 975ers     yeah. 

Do you feel dirty?

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wonder if the CFS incorporates more of that analog data...no clue, just thinking out loud, as that would explain the violence.

The resolution is probably just too coarse. In a vacuum the upper levels look really good during the weekend…hence the analog storms. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Looks like 0.6" here? Do you slightly further N? TIA.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Now imagine 2015 lol. Your comments remind me of my wife and how she was losing it with the logistics getting to and from Northeastern U.

Half of the MBTA trains stopped working that winter. It was a disaster commuting on the train into Boston. I had my office in the seaport that winter. Seaport was prob ground zero though, lol. I remember that one mesoscale event in mid-February (not the 2/15 storm) where there was this very narrow band of snow hugging the coast. Like back bay was sunny I think and when we got to south station, it was almost a whiteout. They had like 3-4” of feathers on the seaport. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Even that QPF chart, as is, argues for prolific deformation from like Steve up through my area here in the MRV....crude rule of thumb is right near the QPF gradient, which at this range is only detecting lower level forcing.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like 0.6" here? Do you slightly further N? TIA.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

 

0.7". Thanks.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I would not hate on a 6-8” snowfall here Sunday.  (Although ratios would be lower than some of the fluff we’ve been getting this winter here)

[Typhoon Tip]

9 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

nice trend with the jet streak over ME

Sorry...catching up overnight shenanigans, but what sticks out to me the most in this cinema above ...the trough bulk spatial positioning is bumping slowly W - as it really should - while noticing, the western ridge component of this total +PNAP flow orientation is wobbling but otherwise transfixed along roughly 110 W. That actually best teleconnects said eastern trough closer to 80W than the Del Marva/off the eastern seaboard during greatest amplitude. 

Basically... these things don't always come into reality in best fits.  But, they due tend to at least shuffle closer to where they should be while doing so.  This slow, albeit perhaps crucial bumping W with the trough is suitable.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Sorry...catching up overnight shenanigans, but what sticks out to me the most in this cinema above ...the trough bulk spatial positioning is bumping slowly W - as it really should - while noticing, the western ridge component of this total +PNAP flow orientation is wobbling but otherwise transfixed along roughly 110 W. That actually best teleconnects said eastern trough closer to 80W than the Del Marva/off the eastern seaboard during greatest amplitude. 

Basically... these things don't always come into reality in best fits.  But, they due tend to at least shuffle closer to where they should be while doing so.  This slow, albeit perhaps crucial bumping W with the trough is suitable.

I noticed a subtle trend with that too. The vortmax may dig for oil just the same, but if we can tick everything a little west we can swing the system closer our way as it gains latitude. I’d like to see some of the late suppression over New England back off a bit late week to help the heights recover over the weekend. 

[ScituateWX]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think barring a significant regression, you can start tuning up the plows EOR because I don't see how this doesn't get banding well west of model depictions....again, assuming it doesn't verify further east.

Getting a new cutting edge tomorrow!

[Baroclinic Zone]

Pretty solid GEFS/EPS clustering from 06z runs.

Not a bad look verbatim for the most hated subsection of the forum.

[Typhoon Tip]

35 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cfs huge hit

It makes sense of itself ... which is not an aver as to it's winning in this thing, but given the larger super synoptic structure wrt ridge and troughs and teleconnectors therein,  that is what this should all be looking like. Rather elegantly, too

The CFS - I believe but am not certain - is a climate fusion with GFS output.   It's possible the the climate integral part of that is pulling these E solutions of the operational GFS, back W where they really should be - given to the aforementioned synoptic arguments.   

Interesting...   

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I noticed a subtle trend with that too. The vortmax may dig for oil just the same, but if we can tick everything a little west we can swing the system closer our way as it gains latitude. I’d like to see some of the late suppression over New England back off a bit late week to help the heights recover over the weekend. 

There’s a late shitstreak that drops south toward New England that keeps the heights suppressed a little longer than they would be otherwise. That PV lobe is pivoting and dropping southeast at this point and the heights (that string of vorticity over us) really wants to move north more if that other s/w wasn’t there. 

Maybe in the end it wouldn’t matter, but anything that can relax the gph field I’d think would be a benefit  

[CoastalWx]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Half of the MBTA trains stopped working that winter. It was a disaster commuting on the train into Boston. I had my office in the seaport that winter. Seaport was prob ground zero though, lol. I remember that one mesoscale event in mid-February (not the 2/15 storm) where there was this very narrow band of snow hugging the coast. Like back bay was sunny I think and when we got to south station, it was almost a whiteout. They had like 3-4” of feathers on the seaport. 

I think that was like 2 days later? I recall that. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I would not hate on a 6-8” snowfall here Sunday.  (Although ratios would be lower than some of the fluff we’ve been getting this winter here)

Snow growth should be better this weekend....it was lacking until that final stanza Monday night in this past event.

[Typhoon Tip]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Do you feel dirty?

Sorry, ...that's not the right hole, honey    

[Damage In Tolland]

I’m feeling much better today vs yesterday. This is going to be a good one 

[WinterWolf]

52 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

No that produced well just south of the MA/CT border. I think BDL had 3-4 inches and just south at smaller airport 6-7 and I thought the whole Southington Bristol New Britian Waterbury zone was 6 to 9. The immediate shore crushed up to 20 inches

I’m talking in comparison to just SE in CT. We got boned bad from monster virga here. She we picked up 8-9”, but nothing like what it could have been. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

There’s a late shitstreak that drops south toward New England that keeps the heights suppressed a little longer than they would be otherwise. That PV lobe is pivoting and dropping southeast at this point and the heights (that string of vorticity over us) really wants to move north more if that other s/w wasn’t there. 

Maybe in the end it wouldn’t matter, but anything that can relax the gph field I’d think would be a benefit  

It’s like Drake Maye running a naked bootleg