The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[PackGrad05]

Just now, Regan said:

Allan says he’s not a fan of the hrrr outside 18 hours

But he also says that HRRR and NAM are both showing this..  and we would like to see them getting snowier, not less

[Grayman]

I’m heading over to the sanitarium boys. Feel free to meet me over there.

[Snowncanes]

Honestly that radar depiction doesn’t even make sense with the Synoptics above. I wouldn’t buy that void. I do wish pivitol had RH% for the HRRR though 

[Regan]

1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

But he also says that HRRR and NAM are both showing this..  and we would like to see them getting snowier, not less

Sure. But I’m just trying to find some hope. It’s so

pessimistic in here. 

[jlewis1111]

HRRR vs SREF which is a better short range model?

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, jlewis1111 said:

HRRR vs SREF which is a better short range model?

Honestly they both suck outside 24 hours. I would say inside 24 hours the HRRR is much better 

[Grayman]

Just now, wncsnow said:

Honestly they both suck outside 24 hours. I would say inside 24 hours the HRRR is much better 

The HRRR didn’t even look like it initialized right with the current conditions. Didn’t pick up any of that snow over in Tennessee.

[PeeDeeWx]

HRRR showing a meager .2 of qpf IMBY but a 6.5" snow Kuchera. Hmmm. That seems off.

[UnionCountyNCWX]

2 hours ago, PackGrad05 said:

If you've followed Brad's videos and posts the past few days, then you understand his thinking.  He has been very consistent with his concerns about a transition zone and intrusions of dry air in the triangle region.  He backed this up with modeled water vapor imagery and other graphics.  

Perfectly timed post.

[Regan]

6 minutes ago, Snowncanes said:

Honestly that radar depiction doesn’t even make sense with the Synoptics above. I wouldn’t buy that void. I do wish pivitol had RH% for the HRRR though 

I hope you are correct. 

[Snowncanes]

2 minutes ago, Grayman said:

The HRRR didn’t even look like it initialized right with the current conditions. Didn’t pick up any of that snow over in Tennessee.

I thought that when I saw it too. Wish I had said it so we’d have less cliff diving lol

[eyewall]

4 minutes ago, Grayman said:

The HRRR didn’t even look like it initialized right with the current conditions. Didn’t pick up any of that snow over in Tennessee.

We toss

[Mesoscale Band]

12 minutes ago, PenguinLover said:

HRRR looking solid for a decent snow in NW ATL.

Amazingly, CLT and its notorious weather dome, still held at bay.  Still a great hit.

[ADB83]

We toss

I’ve been tossing every run of every model since the ICON gave my backyard 16 three days ago, including every run of the ICON since. We toss


.

[olafminesaw]

12 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

But he also says that HRRR and NAM are both showing this..  and we would like to see them getting snowier, not less

Yeah I mean I would say the trend is meaningful and somewhere in the Piedmont is likely to get the dry slot. At the same time, the HRRR and 3km NAM solutions just don't quite pass the sniff test. Not sure they are handling the ULL/phase correctly. 

 

It's more concerning for the Triad. I think the Triangle gets the coastal/WAA banding and should hit 3"+ no problem

[stormwatcherJ]

Just now, olafminesaw said:

Yeah I mean I would say the trend is meaningful and somewhere in the Piedmont is likely to get the dry slot. At the same time, the HRRR and 3km NAM solutions just don't quite pass the sniff test. Not sure they are handling the ULL/phase correctly. 

I think we were all thinking a dry slot or dry slots somewhere, but then the HRRR came with a HUGE DRY slot covering numerous counties in central NC. I don't think anyone expected that. 

[Regan]

So it’s established by a few in here that it looks imperfect/problematic…so why are all the professional mets and trusted ones talking about it like it’s the end all on social media. 

[olafminesaw]

2 minutes ago, stormwatcherJ said:

I think we were all thinking a dry slot or dry slots somewhere, but then the HRRR came with a HUGE DRY slot covering numerous counties in central NC. I don't think anyone expected that. 

They are doing damage control for it/when the forecast busts. I get the get blowback, and especially after last week's storm they are sensitive to their viewer's response if the forecast busts. But ultimately it's bad forecasting to pick the models with the lowest amounts and find justification for why it's going to be correct 

[Buddy1987]

I would be really careful living or dying with the SREF or the HRRR. Both of these models are beyond atrocious. HRRR used to be the old RAP for context. 

[AGardiner87]

I like where we sit in the Charlotte area! 

[stormwatcherJ]

It gets so confusing for amateurs like me..I don't doubt what you're saying at all about the HRRR...but I swear someone earlier today said the HRRR was by far the most accurate for this last storm.

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

I would be really careful living or dying with the SREF or the HRRR. Both of these models are beyond atrocious. HRRR used to be the old RAP for context. 

 

[olafminesaw]

The Hires NAM looks great so far, lol. 

[greendave]

• Sundown: GFS [Maverick NAM suddenly flies off after refusing an easy shot on Jester Euro] Hey, where the hell are you going?
• Maverick HRRR: Uh... It's not good. It doesn't look good.
• Sundown NWS: What do you mean, "it doesn't look good"? It doesn't get to look any better than that.
  
  I just can't with this storm anymore...

[ADB83]

I like where we sit in the Charlotte area! 

I would rather be where you are than anywhere, except maybe the central eastern North Carolina coast


.

[CentralNC]

Columbia honking pretty loud for midlands and upstate SC

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CAE&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off

[Buddy1987]

2 minutes ago, stormwatcherJ said:

It gets so confusing for amateurs like me..I don't doubt what you're saying at all about the HRRR...but I swear someone earlier today said the HRRR was by far the most accurate for this last storm.

 

It may tend to get a little more reliable but I honestly really wouldn't weigh it until about 12 hrs or less. Same with the ICON.. the NWS doesn't even factor it into their forecasting decisions. Nice model to look at in-between globals and such. 

[Ravens94]

Nam is coastal rippage for the SE part of the state and ILM

[bigjohndc]

12k 18z NAM looks great

[Grayman]

3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

The Hires NAM looks great so far, lol. 

Yes. HRRR started storm like 7 hours later. Weird 

[KChuck]

48 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

For sure. Better for the Triangle and points East. May dry slot the Triad