PackGrad05 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Just now, Regan said: Allan says he’s not a fan of the hrrr outside 18 hours But he also says that HRRR and NAM are both showing this.. and we would like to see them getting snowier, not less 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 I’m heading over to the sanitarium boys. Feel free to meet me over there. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowncanes Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Honestly that radar depiction doesn’t even make sense with the Synoptics above. I wouldn’t buy that void. I do wish pivitol had RH% for the HRRR though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: But he also says that HRRR and NAM are both showing this.. and we would like to see them getting snowier, not less Sure. But I’m just trying to find some hope. It’s so pessimistic in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 HRRR vs SREF which is a better short range model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 minute ago, jlewis1111 said: HRRR vs SREF which is a better short range model? Honestly they both suck outside 24 hours. I would say inside 24 hours the HRRR is much better 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Just now, wncsnow said: Honestly they both suck outside 24 hours. I would say inside 24 hours the HRRR is much better The HRRR didn’t even look like it initialized right with the current conditions. Didn’t pick up any of that snow over in Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeeDeeWx Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 HRRR showing a meager .2 of qpf IMBY but a 6.5" snow Kuchera. Hmmm. That seems off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 2 hours ago, PackGrad05 said: If you've followed Brad's videos and posts the past few days, then you understand his thinking. He has been very consistent with his concerns about a transition zone and intrusions of dry air in the triangle region. He backed this up with modeled water vapor imagery and other graphics. Perfectly timed post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 6 minutes ago, Snowncanes said: Honestly that radar depiction doesn’t even make sense with the Synoptics above. I wouldn’t buy that void. I do wish pivitol had RH% for the HRRR though I hope you are correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowncanes Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 2 minutes ago, Grayman said: The HRRR didn’t even look like it initialized right with the current conditions. Didn’t pick up any of that snow over in Tennessee. I thought that when I saw it too. Wish I had said it so we’d have less cliff diving lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 4 minutes ago, Grayman said: The HRRR didn’t even look like it initialized right with the current conditions. Didn’t pick up any of that snow over in Tennessee. We toss 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mesoscale Band Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 12 minutes ago, PenguinLover said: HRRR looking solid for a decent snow in NW ATL. Amazingly, CLT and its notorious weather dome, still held at bay. Still a great hit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADB83 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 We tossI’ve been tossing every run of every model since the ICON gave my backyard 16 three days ago, including every run of the ICON since. We toss . 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 12 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: But he also says that HRRR and NAM are both showing this.. and we would like to see them getting snowier, not less Yeah I mean I would say the trend is meaningful and somewhere in the Piedmont is likely to get the dry slot. At the same time, the HRRR and 3km NAM solutions just don't quite pass the sniff test. Not sure they are handling the ULL/phase correctly. It's more concerning for the Triad. I think the Triangle gets the coastal/WAA banding and should hit 3"+ no problem 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwatcherJ Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Just now, olafminesaw said: Yeah I mean I would say the trend is meaningful and somewhere in the Piedmont is likely to get the dry slot. At the same time, the HRRR and 3km NAM solutions just don't quite pass the sniff test. Not sure they are handling the ULL/phase correctly. I think we were all thinking a dry slot or dry slots somewhere, but then the HRRR came with a HUGE DRY slot covering numerous counties in central NC. I don't think anyone expected that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 So it’s established by a few in here that it looks imperfect/problematic…so why are all the professional mets and trusted ones talking about it like it’s the end all on social media. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 2 minutes ago, stormwatcherJ said: I think we were all thinking a dry slot or dry slots somewhere, but then the HRRR came with a HUGE DRY slot covering numerous counties in central NC. I don't think anyone expected that. They are doing damage control for it/when the forecast busts. I get the get blowback, and especially after last week's storm they are sensitive to their viewer's response if the forecast busts. But ultimately it's bad forecasting to pick the models with the lowest amounts and find justification for why it's going to be correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 I would be really careful living or dying with the SREF or the HRRR. Both of these models are beyond atrocious. HRRR used to be the old RAP for context. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AGardiner87 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 I like where we sit in the Charlotte area! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwatcherJ Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 It gets so confusing for amateurs like me..I don't doubt what you're saying at all about the HRRR...but I swear someone earlier today said the HRRR was by far the most accurate for this last storm. Just now, Buddy1987 said: I would be really careful living or dying with the SREF or the HRRR. Both of these models are beyond atrocious. HRRR used to be the old RAP for context. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 The Hires NAM looks great so far, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greendave Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Sundown: GFS [Maverick NAM suddenly flies off after refusing an easy shot on Jester Euro] Hey, where the hell are you going? Maverick HRRR: Uh... It's not good. It doesn't look good. Sundown NWS: What do you mean, "it doesn't look good"? It doesn't get to look any better than that. I just can't with this storm anymore... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADB83 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 I like where we sit in the Charlotte area! I would rather be where you are than anywhere, except maybe the central eastern North Carolina coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Columbia honking pretty loud for midlands and upstate SC https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CAE&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 2 minutes ago, stormwatcherJ said: It gets so confusing for amateurs like me..I don't doubt what you're saying at all about the HRRR...but I swear someone earlier today said the HRRR was by far the most accurate for this last storm. It may tend to get a little more reliable but I honestly really wouldn't weigh it until about 12 hrs or less. Same with the ICON.. the NWS doesn't even factor it into their forecasting decisions. Nice model to look at in-between globals and such. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Nam is coastal rippage for the SE part of the state and ILM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigjohndc Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 12k 18z NAM looks great 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: The Hires NAM looks great so far, lol. Yes. HRRR started storm like 7 hours later. Weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 48 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: For sure. Better for the Triangle and points East. May dry slot the Triad 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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