The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[Grayman]

5 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

Very true. Hopefully just convective feedback issues 

Which version of the NAM does everyone think will do better in these situations. 3k 12k or 32K?

[Regan]

Brad P

[Buddy1987]

NAM at 39 has a very healthy ribbon of snow, more so than 6Z, breaking out over eastern KY, nw TN and into S VA. 

[Buddy1987]

3 minutes ago, Grayman said:

Which version of the NAM does everyone think will do better in these situations. 3k 12k or 32K?

DEF 3K as it gets into range. 

[KyleEverett]

4 minutes ago, Regan said:

Brad P

Brad not believing in the Charlotte and upstate wins scenarios breaks my heart.

[Buddy1987]

The vort at 45 is noticeably better and digging quite a bit more, with heights rising in New England. This is how someone away from the coastal influence scores a major coup. You can see precip expanding into the foothills, s va and from about Greensboro north.

[BooneWX]

1 minute ago, KyleEverett said:

Brad not believing in the Charlotte and upstate wins scenarios breaks my heart.

After last week’s public outrage that was totally misdirected towards him, I can’t blame him at all. He could come out and give you his boom scenario, but would that really benefit him? If he forecasts 2-5” and you get 10”, nobody is going to scream. Now if he says 10” and you get 9”, people will bring pitchforks. 

[Regan]

Just now, KyleEverett said:

Brad not believing in the Charlotte and upstate wins scenarios breaks my heart.

Maybe I’m wrong but he’s not showing a “dry slot” over central Nc. At least as extreme as some. Even Allan, he’s got the big numbers but I disclaimer in C zone that it could happen. As said prior, he sees at least 2-3 (if there’s a slot) in Raleigh per an exchange with someone on x. 

[HKY_WX]

If you're a RDU IMBY, typically in these scenarios, central NC does very well if the UL vort goes negative. This pours in the Atlantic moisture, that's why all the runs over the past few days which showed the highest totals around RDU also featured the system going negative over Tennessee. This is what happened in Jan 2000. The conjecture around the dry slot is just twitter BS imo until we know how this vort will behave. There are still some quirks to go.

[Buddy1987]

@BornAgain13 you would def approve of the 12Z NAM for our areas. the elongation/vort digging on the backside is helping up here to enhance precip. Coastal gets going at 51 and is tucked in a little more. Nice ribbon of snow breaking out for RDU folks.

To @HKY_WX point, with the ULL going negative, someone is scoring nicely. That thing is a full closed contoured bully and going negative. 

[neatlburbwthrguy]

NAM look okay for north ga?

[Snowncanes]

1 minute ago, neatlburbwthrguy said:

NAM look okay for north ga?

Athens east unfortunately. At least verbatim. Upper low still closes off too late for y’all atlantans 

[Regan]

3 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

If you're a RDU IMBY, typically in these scenarios, central NC does very well if the UL vort goes negative. This pours in the Atlantic moisture, that's why all the runs over the past few days which showed the highest totals around RDU also featured the system going negative over Tennessee. This is what happened in Jan 2000. The conjecture around the dry slot is just twitter BS imo until we know how this vort will behave. There are still some quirks to go.

Webb started it.  Everyone is sharing his post from late last night. Hope we figure it out soon and still we all should be prepared for anything. 

[HKY_WX]

Just now, Regan said:

Webb started it.  Everyone is sharing his post from late last night. Hope we figure it out soon and still we all should be prepared for anything. 

He says a lot of things.

[Derived42]

7 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

After last week’s public outrage that was totally misdirected towards him, I can’t blame him at all. He could come out and give you his boom scenario, but would that really benefit him? If he forecasts 2-5” and you get 10”, nobody is going to scream. Now if he says 10” and you get 9”, people will bring pitchforks. 

Agreed. It's in his favor to be really conservative on this one. Of course this could totally be us rationalizing and making ourselves feel better  

[Aleksey]

NAM look okay for north ga?

If you’re off 316 from Winder to Athens, you’re sitting in a very good spot for 2-4”. Most of these models are already starting to follow the Euro and a western shift looks more likely than not, it’s already starting on a lot of models. Great position to be in! Metro is a lot tougher call and less likely but could still see a dusting to an inch. The Euro is the king for a reason and the most trusted model 48 hours out. Sit back and relax and enjoy, it’s coming for sure!


.

[wncsnow]

3K NAM looks just like the Euro, heaviest precip in WNC/SC

[KyleEverett]

Just now, Derived42 said:

Agreed. It's in his favor to be really conservative on this one. Of course this could totally be us rationalizing and making ourselves feel better  

Climatology is absolutely in his favor. Charlotte viewing area is often on the fringe of these major snows.

[Aleksey]

Athens east unfortunately. At least verbatim. Upper low still closes off too late for y’all atlantans 

Can’t forget Monroe and Winder in that. 1-4” from Winder to Athens and east


.

[Snowncanes]

1 minute ago, Aleksey said:

Can’t forget Monroe and Winder in that. 1-4” from Winder to Athens and east


.

Im not super familiar with the smaller towns in Georgia haha my bad.

[NorthHillsWx]

3k NAM would make foothills folks happy 

[Upstate Tiger]

[Divine]

2 minutes ago, Derived42 said:

Agreed. It's in his favor to be really conservative on this one. Of course this could totally be us rationalizing and making ourselves feel better  

When 2-5" in Charlotte is a "conservative" call you know we are about to score big either way. 

This storm will likely have more snow than the combined 5+ last years for the CLT area. Charlotte normally always sits on some fringe of barely above freezing, a warm nose, or mixed p-type these last several years.

 

[buckeyefan1]

4 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

He says a lot of things.

That’s a nice way to put it  

[wncsnow]

[Grayman]

Based on that NAM run some folks need to report to the sanitarium thread immediately

[Buddy1987]

NAM tends to run dry too further out in time. I would expect precip amounts to increase some. Maybe not drastically but with extremely high ratios for most all it's going to take is .3-.4 qpf to get the job done here and then some.

[wncsnow]

FV3 looks similar to the NAM, just a little more north 

[NorthHillsWx]

Rug feels like it’s getting pulled in Raleigh area

[Upstate Tiger]

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

NAM tends to run dry too further out in time. I would expect precip amounts to increase some. Maybe not drastically but with extremely high ratios for most all it's going to take is .3-.4 qpf to get the job done here and then some.

It did OK with the overall setup last weekend but totally missed the front end snow and sleet IMBY.